Penn State fans have long asked for more from head coach James Franklin, and that’s what he delivered last season. The Nittany Lions made the College Football Playoff and won two games, dispatching SMU and Boise State before being eliminated by Notre Dame. But was the progress enough? The 38-10 throttling of the Mustangs felt inevitable, and while beating the Ashton Jeanty-led Broncos at Boise was impressive, was beating the Mountain West’s best a true proof of concept? The 2025-26 campaign will be Franklin’s most important yet, and he’ll have quarterback Drew Allar once again under center to lead the charge. Anything but a return to the Playoff feels like an unacceptable outcome. Can the Nittany Lions get back in the field of 12?
If you’re looking to get into college football betting and make futures bets at the top sportsbooks, read on for the best Penn State Nittany Lions college football picks and analysis from SportsLine expert Thomas Casale.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Penn State Nittany Lions odds (via FanDuel)
- +750 to win National Championship
- +230 to win Big Ten
- Win total 10.5 (Over +102, Under -124)
With Ohio State and Oregon replacing so much production, it feels like the time is now for Penn State to rise to the top of the Big Ten.
The Nittany Lions return 14 starters and have the most experienced quarterback in the Big Ten. It feels like Drew Allar has been playing college football since 1988. Now a senior, Allar needs to cut down on mistakes in big games in order to take the next step.
Allar doesn’t have to be a world beater, he just needs to play a little better against top competition. In the last two seasons, Allar has thrown just seven touchdowns and five interceptions in six games against Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, Ole Miss and Notre Dame. He has thrown 42 touchdowns and five interceptions in his other 23 starts.
If Allar is going to step up in big games, he will have to do it without tight end Tyler Warren, who caught a program-record 104 passes last season. To put that in perspective, all of Penn State’s other receivers combined to catch 102 balls.
Franklin hit the transfer portal to upgrade the receiver position, while the 1-2 punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen returns at running back. The offense could actually be more explosive this season, even with the loss of Warren. Receiver was a weakness last year, and I expect transfers Kyron Hudson (USC), Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Devonte Ross (Troy) to make the group much more productive.
The defense loses star pass rusher Abdul Carter, although there is still enough talent at every level for new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to work his magic. Knowles comes over from rival Ohio State, where he helped orchestrate the Buckeyes’ National Championship defense.
Overall, Penn State might have the fewest holes of any title contender entering the season. The Nittany Lions are talented and experienced on both sides of the ball. Their success will likely come down to two games: Oregon and Ohio State. Penn State should be a big favorite in its other 10 games.
Penn State best bets
- Penn State +230 to win Big Ten
- Penn State +750 to win National Championship
I make Penn State the favorite to win the Big Ten over Ohio State, so I would back the Nittany Lions at +230 odds. Ohio State and Oregon have more overall talent, but both teams are younger and relying on new faces at key positions.
The Nittany Lions host Oregon and travel to Ohio State, but the schedule is manageable. Penn State ranks No. 2 in my preseason power rankings behind Texas. Everything lines up for the Nittany Lions to finally get over the hump this season. I like Penn State to win the Big Ten and be a top-two seed in the College Football Playoff.
There is also some value on Penn State +750 to win the National Championship. The Nittany Lions have a good chance to be 7-0 when they travel to Ohio State on Nov. 1. If that’s the case, Penn State’s title odds will be much shorter than +750 at that point.
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