In the AFC title game, the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Denver won its divisional round game against the Buffalo Bills in dramatic fashion, prevailing 33-30 in overtime. Despite the Bills having a poor run defense, the Broncos went with a pass-happy game plan, dropping Bo Nix back over 50 times while they ran the ball with RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin only 10 times combined. The Broncos are back in the conference title game for the first time since 2015, when a truly elite defense led the way with Peyton Manning and the offense struggling down the stretch. The Broncos won the Super Bowl that year, and they’ll have to hope that their defense can similarly carry the way this year with Nix out injured.
New England is coming off a fairly comfortable 28-16 victory over the Houston Texans last week, during which the Patriots’ defense forced five turnovers and held C.J. Stroud and Co. to just 241 total yards. Their defense has stepped up in both playoff games so far, holding the Chargers to just 207 yards and three points in the previous contest. New England is looking to get back to the mountaintop for the first time since the Tom Brady era, having been in the quarterback wilderness before landing Drake Maye in last year’s draft and ascending back to the top of the AFC East this season.
Which of these two teams will advance to the Super Bowl and earn a chance to compete for the Lombardi Trophy? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we detail some key storylines, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Broncos vs. Patriots live
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: CBS | Streaming: Paramount+
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Off the board via DraftKings Sportsbook
Key Storylines
- Bo Nix’s injury. Denver, unfortunately, lost its starting quarterback for the remainder of the season when he suffered a fractured bone in his ankle late in the divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills. Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will start in his place. Stidham has made four career starts, going 1-3 for the Raiders and Broncos. In his 20 career appearances, he’s completed 117 of 197 passes (59.4%) for 1,422 yards (7.2 per attempt), eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s taken a sack on 8.8% of his dropbacks, though, which is a significantly higher rate than the 3.8% sack rate Nix has posted throughout his career. That could be a factor in this game.
- Drake Maye vs. the blitz. Maye absolutely carved up blitzing defenses during the regular season. He went 114 of 163 (69.9%) for 1,491 yards (9.1 per attempt), 15 touchdowns and no interceptions when opponents sent five or more rushers after him, ranking first in the league in EPA per dropback, via TruMedia. He’s only 8 of 17 against the blitz in the playoffs, but he’s thrown for 138 yards, two scores and no picks. The Broncos blitz more than any team in the NFL, as we’ll dive into below.
- Broncos pass rush. During the regular season, Denver finished third in the NFL with a 42.1% pressure rate, according to TruMedia. The Broncos also checked in third in sack-to-pressure ratio, turning 23.3% of their pressures into sacks. They’re going to need to put copious pressure on Maye to win this game — but also do it without blitzing, which they did at the NFL’s highest rate, for the reasons mentioned above. Luckily for the Broncos, their four-man pass rush also got to the quarterback at the third-highest rate in the league during the regular season. Their rate of four-man pressures has held up in the playoffs, and they’ll need to get home that way if they want to advance to the Super Bowl.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s breakout. Since New England’s bye week back in Week 14, Stevenson has gone absolutely berserk. In four regular-season games, he ran 29 times for 279 yards and four touchdowns, while also catching 12 passes for 131 yards and two additional scores. In the two playoff games, Stevenson has another 26 carries for 123 yards, with seven catches for 86 yards. He seems to have taken the backfield reins back from TreVeyon Henderson, who had his own midseason breakout when Stevenson missed time due to injury. Henderson still provides an explosive-play threat, though, so the Pats now have a backfield duo that can beat defenses in a variety of ways.
Prediction
This one is pretty simple: the Broncos will not have their starting quarterback for this game. It’s really hard to see them putting together a representative offensive performance with Jarrett Stidham at the helm — especially given how well the New England defense has played so far during the playoffs in holding down offenses piloted by Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud. New England’s offense hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in either of its games against elite defenses, and the Broncos present another one for them to go up against, but I have far more trust in Drake Maye going against a Denver unit that has actually shown some leaks since its bye week, than I do in Stidham and Co. against the Pats.
Prediction: Patriots 21, Broncos 10
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