The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers square off in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday evening. The best-of-seven series is tied 2-2, making Monday’s matchup extremely pivotal. With the NBA Finals tied 2-2, the team that secures the victory in Game 5 wins the series 74.2% of the time (23-8 series record). The Thunder, who are coming off a 111-104 win on Friday, are 18-2 in their last 20 meetings against an opponent from the Eastern Conference. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 12-5 in their past 17 games overall.
Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 9-point favorites in the latest Thunder vs. Pacers odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 224.5. OKC is priced at -410 on the money line (risk $410 to win $100), while Indiana is listed at +320 (risk $100 to win $320). Before locking in any Pacers vs. Thunder picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the 2025 NBA Finals on a sizzling 160-118 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Pacers vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Pacers vs. Thunder:
Why the Thunder can cover
The Thunder are 35-15-2 against the spread as the home favorite and 49-29-3 against the spread after a win. Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be a crafty scorer who gets to his spots with ease. In the NBA Finals, he’s averaging 32.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Gilgeous-Alexander had 35 points, three boards and three steals in the Game 4 win. He also poured in 15 points in the fourth quarter.
Forward Jalen Williams gave OKC another reliable scorer who is able to put the ball on the floor to get into the lane. Williams is averaging 22.3 points, 5,5 boards and 4.3 assists per contest in the 2025 NBA Finals. He’s tallied 26-plus points in two straight games, including a series-high 27 points and seven rebounds in Friday’s victory. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Pacers can cover
Indiana rolls into this game with a 22-13-2 against the spread after a loss. They are also 19-12 ATS as the away underdog. Forward Pascal Siakam is a consistent scorer in the frontcourt for Indiana. Siakam leads the team in scoring (20.6) and rebounds (6.2). In Game 4, he has put up 20 points, eight rebounds, and five dimes in his last outing. This was also his second straight game with 20-plus points.
Guard Tyrese Haliburton has great vision and the ability to create his own shot. In the 2025 NBA Finals, Haliburton logs 17.8 points, six rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. In Game 3, he racked up 22 points, nine rebounds, 11 assists and made four 3-pointers. This was his ninth double-double of the postseason. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Pacers vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Pacers vs. Thunder and is leaning Under the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5, and which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pacers vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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