Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Last year, Zoe Saldaña dominated the award season before winning Best Supporting Actress, but the Oscars 2026 could be a very different year for the category. There are already some wonderful performances challenging to win at the 98th Academy Awards, and I’m thrilled to get to chronicle the race for Screen Rant once more.

Historically, this category almost always goes to someone without an Oscar trophy. There are only five Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners in history who were already Academy Award winners: Shelley Winters in 1965 (won in 1959), Helen Hayes in 1970 (won Best Actress in 1931/1932), Ingrid Bergman in 1974 (won Best Actress in 1944 and 1956), Maggie Smith in 1978 (won Best Actress in 1969), and Diane Wiest in 1994 (won in 1986).

This trend appears likely to continue in 2026, as most of the contenders for Best Supporting Actress have never won an Oscar before, despite being in this industry for years, if not decades. A few are even previous nominees who missed out on a chance to win.

There’s also a good mixture of “new names” for the Academy voters to consider, and several strong narratives and campaigns that could shift the standings. Here’s the current landscape of Best Supporting Actress, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

The Best Supporting Actress Nomination Frontrunners

Just as this race is really heating up thanks to a flurry of recent releases, it’s been confirmed that one expected player, Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), will not contend here, and rather campaign in Best Actress. That opens up the field a bit as I give my first round of predictions for the Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress nominees.

Even though nobody has seen Wicked: For Good yet, Ariana Grande is positioned as a frontrunner in Best Supporting Actress. She already received a nomination in the category last year for her pitch-perfect portrayal of Glinda.

The musically gifted performer should have an even more layered performance as Glinda, thanks to Wicked: For Good‘s story. And with the movie making some changes to flesh out her arc compared to the musical, it’s reasonable to think Grande will impress voters once more.

Next up, there’s the double-dose of One Battle After Another performers: Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall. It’s difficult to judge at this moment which actress is in a better position, but both are firmly part of the conversation for this category. Taylor’s portrayal of Perfidia is big and powerful, while Hall’s Deandra is a bit more subtle. Both are terrific and deserve a spot.

The question is whether either will emerge as the favorite and separate themselves from the other. Perfidia is the showier role, and Taylor does so much with her limited screentime. But Hall has the longer acting career and potential narrative that could push her ahead. There’s even the chance they both take a back seat to Chase Infiniti if she’s not campaigning in Best Actress.

The Smashing Machine might not have landed as big as A24 hoped in theaters, but the movie and its performances are still firmly in the Oscar mix. Emily Blunt swings for the fences with her portrayal of Dawn in the movie, and the high drama and highly emotional moments she provides make her memorable.

It should also help Blunt that she recently broke through with the Academy. She was nominated in this category two years ago for Oppenheimer, and while she didn’t win then, the somewhat chaotic role here could give her a shot at another run. A24 and Blunt will need to play the rest of award season smartly, though, as she could get lost in the shuffle.

For the final spot, I’m giving Elle Fanning the edge for her performance in Sentimental Value. While she’s about to headline Predator: Badlands on November 7, that’s the same day Joachim Trier’s acclaimed drama comes out. She’s got a smaller role in it compared to the rest of the cast, but she has left an impression on those who have seen it.

ScreenRant‘s Graeme Guttmann teased as much in his 10/10 Sentimental Value review, as he noted the actress gets a few “showcase moments” as aspiring star Rachel Kemp. I do feel some uncertainty about this prediction at the moment, as I’m not sure if Fanning is the right pick for a Supporting Actress nominee from this film.

Actresses Still In The Mix

While Fanning could easily get a nomination, the same could also be said for the film’s lesser-known Norwegian star, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas​​​​​​. Her role as Agnes is a major one in the film that puts her more directly in the center of the story. It’s just as likely in my mind that she gets the nomination instead of Fanning.

This will be a bit easier to gauge once the movie comes out in a few weeks. There are many other performers who are also still contending and hope to move up into the prediction section prior to Oscars nominations being announced on January 22, 2026.

Some of the freshest contenders in this race are Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion from Marty Supreme. The rave reactions to the film have mostly been concentrated on Timothée Chalamet’s performance and Josh Safdie’s direction, but both of these actresses have also impressed early on.

Paltrow is an Oscar winner already from 1999’s Best Actress win for Shakespeare in Love. So, if she becomes a bigger contender in this race, she’ll have to overcome the aforementioned poor history of Academy Award winners finding success in this category.

I also think there’s still a chance one of the actresses from Sinners make it into this race. Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku are the film’s best chances, with Steinfeld now far removed from her 2011 nomination for True Grit. The love for Ryan Coogler’s movie could translate to this category too.

Meanwhile, there are performances attached to other Best Picture contenders who could make a run. Emily Watson (Hamnet), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite), and Thomasin McKenzie (The Testament Of Ann Lee) are hopefuls, as is former winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Ella McKay), even if her movie remains unseen.

Voters also have a chance to look at broader genre movies. Amy Madigan’s Weapons performance has put her in the running, while Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could generate a push for its female stars like Glenn Close and Kerry Washington.

It’s also worth keeping Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman) and Kirsten Dunst (Roofman) in mind as their movies hit theaters this week. Otherwise, Nina Hoss (Hedda), Zoey Deutch (Nouvelle Vague), and Kerry Condon (Train Dreams) will need their films to generate more conversations upon release to become bigger contenders.

Predicted Best Supporting Actress Winner

This is sure to be a popular choice for the 2026 Oscars, but Ariana Grande winning Best Supporting Actress feels like a very real possibility once again. She made a great push last year to try and steal the spotlight from Saldaña and sneak out a win, but that effort fell short.

Now, Grande is in a position where she is the frontrunner. Voters have known since last year that there would be another opportunity to reward the star with an Oscar if she delivered another great performance in the sequel. There’s no real reason to believe Grande’s Glinda return will fall flat and disappoint.

If that does happen when Wicked: For Good comes out on November 21, then this will become a much more difficult decision. Until then, this appears to be Grande’s award to lose. The One Battle After Another cast will have their support, but they could also split votes, allowing the passionate support for Wicked to overcome.

For those reasons, I feel rather confident in selecting Grande as the winner of the Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress category. Stay tuned to see if that changes.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/