Liverpool are being backed to win against Newcastle United on Saturday night, and Opta’s numbers explain why despite our stuttering Premier League run.
It’s a big one at Anfield, with Arne Slot’s side sitting sixth on 36 points and Eddie Howe’s Newcastle ninth on 33, so the outcome matters for the European places.
The immediate mood swing is obvious too, because we thrashed Qarabag 6-0 in the Champions League in midweek, even if the league form has been far less convincing since the turn of the year.
That contradiction sits right in the middle of Opta’s preview, which describes us as “in desperate need of a win” after Bournemouth, while pointing out that we are “winless in [our] last five league games”.
Opta’s win probability shows why Liverpool are strong favourites
The headline reason Liverpool are rated such strong favourites is simple: Opta’s model still gives us the highest chance of winning the match.
Opta say Liverpool have a 52.4% chance of victory, compared to 23.3% for Newcastle, with a draw placed at 24.3%.
Those probabilities matter because they reflect more than recent form, taking into account underlying team strength, venue, and historical performance patterns.
Opta also note Newcastle have “failed to score in their previous two Premier League outings”, which nudges the forecast towards a Liverpool win even if our own league output has been inconsistent.
Chris Sutton landed in a similar place from a more traditional pundit angle, backing a tight home victory.
The BBC Sport pundit said: “Even if [Bruno Guimaraes] is [fit], I still fancy Liverpool here.”
Liverpool’s Newcastle record at Anfield is a major factor
The second reason we are favourites is the scale of the historical trend in this fixture, especially at Anfield.
Opta point out Liverpool are unbeaten in the last 18 top-flight meetings with Newcastle (W13 D5), which is a run that consistently stretches across managers and squads.
There is also the Anfield-specific hoodoo, with Opta adding that Newcastle have failed to win any of their last 29 away league games against Liverpool (D5 L24), calling it one of their joint-longest winless away runs against any opponent.
That’s why, even with our league wobble, models still lean towards a home win when this particular opponent turns up on Merseyside.
And we have already found a way to beat Newcastle once this season, winning 3-2 at St James’ Park back in August, so a win would complete a Premier League double.
Recent head-to-head results vs Newcastle
| Date | Result | Venue | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2025 | 3-2 | St James’ Park | Premier League |
| 16 Mar 2025 | 1-2 | Wembley | League Cup final |
| 26 Feb 2025 | 2-0 | Anfield | Premier League |
| 04 Dec 2024 | 3-3 | St James’ Park | Premier League |
| 01 Jan 2024 | 4-2 | Anfield | Premier League |
The recent series shows why confidence remains in the data, because even the “messy” games against Newcastle tend to suit us, with goals, territory, and chances usually arriving sooner or later.
There is still a warning in all of this, because Sutton also highlighted our habit of following a big European night with a flatter league display.
The BBC man said: “Liverpool walloped Qarabag in midweek, but one of their issues this season has been following up good wins like that in Europe with a similar result in the league the following weekend.”
That’s the tension going into Saturday.
Opta back us to win, history screams Anfield advantage, but we still have to prove we can make Europe-level sharpness show up when the Premier League pressure returns.
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