For the first time in almost decade, the New York Yankees have been shut out in three consecutive games. Tuesday night a throwback performance from Los Angeles Angels righty Kyle Hendricks (LAA 4, NY 0) sent the Yankees to their fifth consecutive defeat, and a franchise-record-tying third straight shutout loss. They’ve scored five runs in their last six games.
Things are going so poorly at the moment that several Yankees’ veterans called a players-only meeting following Tuesday’s loss.
“(We discussed) remembering who we are and continuing to stick with our approach.” Cody Bellinger said about the meeting. “… There’s always a certain point where it’s not necessarily going your way, and you feel it. You feel extra pressure to get the job done. At the end of the day, it’s the same. We had good conversations.”
Whenever the Yankees have gone into an offensive funk the last few years, without fail, it happens when reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge slumps. Judge still leads baseball in batting average (.372), on-base percentage (.469), and slugging percentage (.740). He remains the overwhelming AL MVP favorite (-6000 at DraftKings). But he is 3 for 24 (.125) with 15 strikeouts in his last seven games. He’s struck out three times in four of those seven games.
Other than last April, when he was hitting an inordinate number of pop ups, every Judge slump looks the same. He falls out of his approach and begins chasing out of the strike zone. That is exactly what’s happened this last week. Judge has been chasing more, and more chases equal more swings and misses, and more weak contact when he does put a ball in play.
FanGraphs
To be clear, Judge’s chase rate has gone from elite most of the year to league average the last few weeks. He’s not suddenly running an exceptionally high chase rate. For Judge, league average is high, and league average is enough to send the strikeouts soaring and the production in a tailspin. You’ll know Judge is rounding back into form when he starts talking walks again.
“It’s just the inevitable ebbs and flows of it,” manager Aaron Boone said about Judge’s slump Tuesday. “Probably has left the zone a little more than he normally does. No one more capable of getting right back on track than him.”
Even the very best hitters have slumps during the season. Shohei Ohtani had a 6 for 44 (.136) stretch last summer. It happens. The problem for the Yankees is that, while Judge is slumping, no one is picking up the slack. The entire team is in a rut. Look at some of these numbers during this six-game offensive disappearing act:
The Yankees as a team are hitting .164/.227/.215 in their last six games and it has been 71 innings (since last Tuesday) since a Yankee other than Judge has hit a home run. Judge is the star and gets the attention, that’s the way it works, but this is not a case of the slumping star dragging his team down. This is a team-wide offensive no-show.
The silver lining is New York’s pitching has been terrific lately and they’ve been in all these games even while not scoring any runs. Their staff has a 1.48 ERA and has held opponents to a .201/.271/.284 slash line during their last six games. Twice during their five-game losing streak have they gone to extra innings. The Yankees have been one swing away most nights.
Also, while no team wants to be shut out three straight games and lose five straight, this slump has barely put a dent in New York’s postseason odds. Their postseason odds have dipped from 98.9% to 95.7% during the five-game losing streak, per FanGraphs. Their AL East title odds have gone from 87.9% to a still healthy 74.7%. They still have a three-game lead in the loss column.
Banking wins early in the season allow you better weather slumps in the middle of the season. The Yankees won a lot of games in April and May, largely because Judge is the best hitter we’ve seen since Barry Bonds, but now Judge is slumping, as are almost all of his position player teammates. When Judge goes, the Yankees go. It has rarely been as evident as it is right now.
“Maybe they’re feeling like they’ve gotta get something going. We’ve gotta let it happen. We’ve gotta go out, really focus on having quality at-bats, and that will happen. We’ll get there,” Boone said after Tuesday’s loss. “… We are one of the best offenses in the league. We’ve had a tough few days.”
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