Bill Belichick, the third-most-winning coach in NFL history, makes his long-anticipated return to the sidelines on Monday night, and it comes at a place no one would have expected when last seeing him with the Patriots. Belichick became the head coach at North Carolina in December, and more than eight months later, he’ll finally be leading the Tar Heels onto the field when North Carolina hosts TCU in the final game of the Week 1 college football schedule on Monday. Sept. 1.
Kickoff from Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C., is set for 8 p.m. ET. TCU is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest TCU vs. North Carolina odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 55 in the latest college football odds. The Horned Frogs are -173 money line favorites, while the Tar Heels are +144 underdogs. Before making any North Carolina vs. TCU picks, make sure you check out the picks from the SportsLine Projection Model. New users at bet365 can get $200 in bonus bets instantly with the latest bet365 bonus code for Monday’s game:
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Here are SportsLine model’s best bets for North Carolina vs. TCU on Monday:
- North Carolina +3.5
- Over 55
- North Carolina Over 27.5 team total (-105)
North Carolina +3.5
Belichick has been preparing for this specific game since December, but more so than that, he’s been focused on proving himself again on a football sideline since the conclusion of the 2023 NFL season when the Patriots “parted ways” with the six-time Super Bowl champion head coach. Belichick was one of the best coaches in the NFL coming off a bye week, so just imagine what he’s been planning for eight months, specifically focused on North Carolina vs. TCU. Belichick wasted little time in forming his staff and targeting the transfer portal to bring in a talented group to Chapel Hill. Belichick announced during game week that Gio Lopez, a transfer from South Alabama, will start at quarterback for North Carolina. The dual-threat quarterback had 18 passing and seven rushing touchdowns last year. The SportsLine model projects the Tar Heels will cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations.
Over 55 total points
Whereas exactly how Belichick will run his North Carolina team on the field is still unknown, we know TCU, under head coach Sonny Dykes, will play fast and look to score often. TCU was 25th in the nation in scoring at 32.5 points per game in a pass-heavy offense, ranking 15th in pass-play percentage and throwing for the sixth-most yards per game (314.2) in college football. The Frogs return starting quarterback Josh Hoover, who threw for 3,949 yards and 27 touchdowns with 11 interceptions last season. Freddie Kitchens, a former NFL head coach who coached on the offensive side every year of his career dating back to 2000, will be North Carolina’s offensive coordinator under Belichick. The model projects 72 points in this matchup, with the Over hitting in more than 70% of simulations.
North Carolina Over 27.5 team total (-105)
The model projects offense on both sides, but it sees the best value in North Carolina is surpassing its team total. Not even the sportsbooks know exactly what to expect from Belichick, but despite being 73 years old, his willingness to accept a college job signals he must be willing to change in some ways. Belichick had a pocket passer throughout his career in Tom Brady, yet he named dual-threat quarterback Gio Lopez as the starter. This could signal a faster-paced offense. All eyes will be on Belichick and his staff in the only college football game on the Monday schedule, and he’ll be as focused as ever on putting together a flawless game plan.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists North Carolina Over 27.5 points at -105 odds, and the latest DraftKings promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets following your first $5 wager, as well as over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.
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Want more from SportsLine? See the top Week 1 NFL picks from Sportsline expert Mike Tierney, who is 15-7 (+749) over his last 22 NFL picks.
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