Every week, we’ve been breaking down a divisional race, a kind of check-in as summer drags on. As we get later into the season, some of these divisions become non-questions (the Tigers, even amid their slump, are all but running away with the AL Central) and some shrink to the point that we can start ignoring teams. To wit, check out the odds to win the NL East, via FanDuel, for these three NL East teams:
It’s certainly interesting to see the Marlins with better odds than the Braves and equal to the Nationals, given that the Marlins are 10 games out while the Braves are 14 back and the Nats are 17 ½ out. Still, I’m pretty comfortable in ignoring the Marlins here and obviously the Braves are too far back. And, well, the Nationals are certainly members of the division.
This is a five-team division, but it’s a two-team race and it figures to be a damn good one.
Right now, the Mets have a half-game lead over the Phillies with the teams tied in the loss column. The Mets lead the season series, four games to two, so they have the tiebreaker for now.
Let’s take a look.
Remaining head-to-head series:
- Aug. 25-27, three games in New York
- Sept. 8-11, four games in Philadelphia
New York Mets
Record: 59-44
Run differential: +45
Betting odds to win NL East: +105
SportsLine projected final win total: 88.6
SportsLine odds to win NL East: 30.7%
Remaining SOS: .512 (fifth toughest in MLB)
The Mets were 21-9 with a 4 ½ game lead through April 29. They lost five of six in the middle of May. Then they got really hot again to land at 45-24 with a 5 ½ game lead. Then they lost 14 of 17. A few more ups and downs followed but now they’ve won four straight and have taken first place back.
It’s a roller coaster, but the same thing applies to the Phillies.
Thanks to spring training injuries to pitchers, it looked like the Mets’ rotation would be thin, especially early in the season. Instead, the starting pitchers were awesome. More injuries hit, as they always do, but others returned and the Mets sit fourth in the majors in rotation ERA at 3.40. Still, the fivesome right now is Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Frankie Montas and there’s risk in there with no depth in case there are injuries.
The bullpen needs a better bridge to Edwin Díaz, but they’re 11th in relief pitching ERA.
They could stand to be more consistent and have a deeper lineup, but they are 14th in runs and 10th in OPS thanks in part to the star power of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso.
It’s a funny state of being. The Mets are good. They are great at times. Many times, they feel like they should be better. But they’re very likely to make the playoffs and if that “great at times” stretch happens in October, they could well win the World Series with this group.
What if they hit a home run at the trade deadline and get the best versions of Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty and the whole rotation the rest of the way? They’d be amazing.
What if they whiff at the deadline and get bad versions of those guys while injuries hit the rotation even harder? They might even then fall out of playoff position.
The truth lies in between. Where? Well, that’s the fun of watching it all unfold the rest of the way.
I’m personally inclined it’ll be mostly toward the good side.
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 58-44
Run differential: +63
Betting odds to win NL East: -135
SportsLine projected final win total: 92.6
SportsLine odds to win NL East: 69.2%
Remaining SOS: .496 (18th)
The current iteration of the Phillies as a playoff team has us collectively thinking of them as a powerful team with a good rotation and a sometimes problematic bullpen.
The 2025 Phillies aren’t all too different, but the issues on offense are starting to become a bit more concerning. At least that’s how it feels in watching them on a regular basis. There’s far too much reliance on Kyle Schwarber and, to a lesser extent, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. And yet, they rank 12th in runs and eighth in OPS. Maybe it isn’t so bad?
By OPS+, the only above-average hitters are Schwarber (155), Harper (140), Turner (112) and Nick Castellanos (102). That’s it.
Perhaps there’s hope with J.T. Realmuto? The veteran catcher is hitting .387 with a .532 slugging percentage in his last 15 games.
Still, similar to the Mets, this feels like a group bound for inconsistency.
That’s how it’s been with the team as a whole. They were 8-3 and then 13-13 and then 36-19. Then they lost 10 of 11 and shortly thereafter won eight of nine. That’s just how it’s gone all season.
The problematic bullpen? Yep. It ranks 22nd in baseball with a 4.22 ERA, but even when José Alvarado returns from his PED suspension, he’ll be ineligible for the postseason roster. They signed David Robertson, but surely need to add a late-inning arm via the trade deadline.
The rotation should be awesome down the stretch. Zack Wheeler is the definition of an ace. Cristopher Sánchez sure looks the part as well and Ranger Suárez has been lights out in his 14 starts. Jesús Luzardo is plagued by inconsistency (again, it’s a theme here for both teams), but his upside is big. Aaron Nola has been awful this season and is injured, but once he returns, there’s no reason to think that, at age 32, he can’t string together good starts. A playoff rotation of Wheeler-Sánchez-Suárez-Nola with Luzardo out of the bullpen seems possibly stellar.
Similar to the Mets, we could paint a rosy picture where everything comes to together and the Phillies are stacked the rest of the way, but we could also point out all the potential pitfalls come to fruition and the Phillies lose the NL East to the Mets and then a wild-card spot to the Brewers/Cubs (whichever one doesn’t win the Central), Padres and Giants or Reds.
The verdict
Pick your poison. It’s going down to the wire. I took the Phillies last time we did this exercise and I had them finishing above the Mets in spring training, so I’ll stay put. I wouldn’t disagree with anyone wanting to grab the Mets with the plus-money odds instead of the -135 Phillies. I’m not confident in either side, other than to say that I do think both make the playoffs and won’t have to sweat on that front.
My biggest prediction? The SportsLine projections right now have the division winner prevailing by four games. I’ll take the under. I think it’s closer than that. Maybe even just one game.
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