The road to Super Bowl LX begins this week in the wild-card round. The action starts with a Saturday doubleheader, followed by three games on Sunday before a Monday night finale in Pittsburgh.
The Carolina Panthers will look to shock the world by making a playoff run despite finishing with an 8-9 record, Josh Allen may have his best chance to make the Super Bowl with no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson standing in his way, and Aaron Rodgers has what could be his final chance at NFL glory. We also have two surprising No. 1 seeds with the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. How important will those first-round byes be this year?
Which teams should you pick in Wild Card Weekend, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Jan. 7 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
Dajani (Jaguars +1.5): Many view this as Josh Allen’s best chance to win a Super Bowl, but I’m not sure about that. Buffalo has a very clear Achilles heel in the form of its run defense. The Bills allow 136.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks worst among playoff teams. They also allow 5.1 yards per rush. Only one team has won the Super Bowl allowing five yards per rush, and that was the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. On the flip side, the Bills have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL (159.6 rushing yards per game). However, the Jaguars boast the No. 1 rush defense in the league (85.6 rushing yards per game).
The Jaguars are arguably the hottest team in the NFL, having won eight straight games. During that span, Liam Coen’s team leads the NFL in points per game (33.6), opponent points per game (14.5) and point differential (+153). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads the league in total touchdowns (24) during this win streak, and has been a weapon on the ground as well. Give me the Jaguars in an upset at home … Prediction: Jaguars 24, Bills 21
Dubin (Bills -1.5): As Dajani said, the Jags are arguably the hottest team in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career. Liam Coen is an inner circle Coach of the Year candidate. The defense has forced at least one turnover in six straight games and at least two in five of them. And yet… the Bills have Josh Allen, and I cannot bring myself to bet against the best quarterback in the AFC side of the bracket — even when going on the road. Between Allen and James Cook, I think Buffalo will be able to move the ball here, and in a close game I am always going to ride with the team that has a better quarterback. That’s Buffalo. … Prediction: Bills 26, Jaguars 23
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Dajani (49ers +4.5): Do you want to take the most Jekyll and Hyde team there is in the NFL, or a team with a struggling defense that just lost the inside track to the Super Bowl while putting up a measly three points? Get this: I’m taking both. I’m going to take the Eagles to win this game, but the 49ers to cover 4.5 points. Ignoring what happened last Saturday night for a second, the 49ers have made the NFC Championship game in each of their last seven playoff trips. Do we really believe they are going to be one-and-done this season? Despite all of the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh found a way to get this team to 12-5 in the toughest division in the NFL. I think Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey can keep up with this Eagles offense.
I also think it’s possible Saquon Barkley turns it on in the playoffs again. This year overall was certainly a step back production-wise for him, but Barkley’s 127.5 total yards per game in the playoffs rank second in NFL history behind Terrell Davis. Give me the Eagles to win at home, but the 49ers to cover … Prediction: Eagles 27, 49ers 24
Dubin (49ers +4.5): The Niners were red-hot before getting stonewalled in the final week of the season by the Seahawks. They should get Trent Williams and possibly Ricky Pearsall back for this game, which should help them move the ball against Philly’s defense better than they did against Seattle. HOWEVER. San Francisco is still incredibly banged up on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense. I know the Eagles are perhaps the most untrustworthy offense in the league, but I like them to be able to get something going against this San Francisco unit that has allowed offenses to move the ball with consistency even before losing Tatum Bethune (in addition to Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and more) for the season. I don’t feel fully comfortable backing a team that can look so listless, so often, but that’s why I’m picking the Eagles to win and not cover. … Prediction: Eagles 24, 49ers 20
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET on NBC
Dajani (Chargers +3.5): I’m a big fan of Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, but there’s no getting around the fact that the Patriots are not battle-tested. New England had the easiest strength of schedule played since the 1999 Rams. Yes, that team ended up winning the Super Bowl, but the Patriots went 1-2 vs. teams that finished the regular season with a winning record, and 13-1 vs. losing teams. This Chargers defense will be the toughest defense the Patriots have faced ALL year. Maye has been one of the best deep-ball throwers all season, but the Chargers secondary ranks top two in completions allowed (31), completion percentage (33%) and passing touchdowns (4) on throws of at least 15 air yards this year. I can’t in good faith pick the Chargers to win this game with how banged-up the offensive line is, but I’ll take Justin Herbert to keep it close in a game that goes Under the total … Prediction: Patriots 16, Chargers 13
Dubin (Chargers +3.5): The Chargers probably need this game to be low-scoring to come away with the win, given their issues up front on offense. If they can turn it into a knock-down, drag-out fist fight, I like their chances better than if it’s a more wide-open game with the offenses going score-for-score. That said, it’s not like the Pats aren’t still equipped to win if it does turn into a lower-scoring contest. They can run the ball better than can the Chargers and with Milton Williams back, their defense should be better than it was during part of the stretch run of the season. Watching Drake Maye and Justin Herbert go back and forth in this game is going to be incredibly fun, and it feels like a game that is going to be incredibly close. I’m just going with the home team to win. … Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Dajani (Steelers +3): In this matchup, we have an NFL legend at home facing an elite defense in what promises to be a low-scoring affair. The Texans are the only team in NFL history to have never won a road playoff game, so why not take the Steelers in Pittsburgh with the points? I did that with the Steelers last week against the Baltimore Ravens and it worked out. Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets DK Metcalf back. He’s the only Steeler to cross 500 yards receiving this year!
I had fun watching Rodgers against the Ravens last week. He can clearly still spin the football. The future Hall of Famer is 4-0-1 against the spread in his last five wild card games, so I’m going to take him in this spot. What will decide this game is actually the other quarterback, C.J. Stroud. If his passing attack can take advantage of what was the fourth-worst pass defense in the NFL this season, the Texans will cover the spread. I’m not so sure that happens … Prediction: Texans 14, Steelers 13
Dubin (Texans -3): Look, I’ve been picking against the Steelers all season and they keep making me look stupid by pulling games out of their collective butts. But I’m still picking against them here. I just can’t see them consistently moving the ball against this ferocious Houston defense — especially if Aaron Rodgers is unwilling to hold onto the ball for long enough to even try pushing it down the field. All the check-downs he likes to throw to the running backs don’t work as well against the Texans as they do against other teams because of how they rally to the ball. I’m not sure Houston can move the ball with any degree of consistency on the other side, but I’m going to back the team with the best single unit in the game here. … Prediction: Texans 16, Steelers 10
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