The generational run continues. I built on my lead as CBS Sports’ pick leader with an 11-4 against-the-spread week, including a perfect 5-0 on my top picks for the first time this season. In seven years of doing this, I don’t think I had ever picked two underdogs to win straight up as best bets, but the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts came through for me.
I’m 40-20 ATS since Week 4, which includes a 14-2 ATS week. I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to do that again, but we are going to try. This week in the NFL, the Philadelphia Eagles have a chance to avenge the shocking upset loss they suffered against the New York Giants a couple weeks ago, Mike McDaniel tries to not get fired against the Atlanta Falcons and Aaron Rodgers hosts his former team in the Green Bay Packers.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:
Top five picks ATS record: 17-18
Overall ATS record: 63-45
Straight up record: 74-33-1
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
There’s no way the Giants sweep the season series with the Eagles, especially when you consider the fact that Philly has won 12 straight home games against the Giants. When it comes to this matchup, everyone will focus on the Giants’ historic collapse against the Denver Broncos, but I’m more focused on the demons the Eagles exorcised against the Minnesota Vikings. Jalen Hurts became just the third player in Eagles history to register a perfect passer rating, completing 19 of 23 passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 304 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury, but the Giants have a bottom seven pass defense, so watch out.
The pick: Eagles -7.5
Projected score: Eagles 30-21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
I find myself rooting against the Jets after seeing Woody Johnson publicly tear down his quarterback like that. I know Justin Fields has been bad, but I would feel pretty upset about that if I played for the winless Jets. Now, they have to go on the road and face a well-rested Bengals team that has found new life with a new quarterback. The Jets will probably have a new quarterback as well, but Tyrod Taylor is day-to-day with a leg injury.
The Jets have allowed 25 points in eight straight road games, which is the longest streak in team history, and 49% of their points scored this season have come with the team already trailing by double digits. New York hasn’t scored a first-half touchdown since Week 1.
The player that will have to cover Ja’Marr Chase, Sauce Gardner, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday with a concussion, and New York’s best receiver, Garrett Wilson, missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury. I’ll take the Bengals to win by a touchdown at home. After all, Cincy is 2-0 ATS since Joe Flacco got to town.
The pick: Bengals -6.5
Projected score: Bengals 24-16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Could this be the final game that Mike McDaniel coaches for the Miami Dolphins? The Dolphins’ lone win came a month ago against the lowly Jets, and they just lost, 31-6, to the Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns!
I don’t know if the Dolphins can get up off the mat, and this defense, which boasts the second-highest missed tackle rate in the league (15.7%), has to contain Bijan Robinson, who has just one game UNDER 100 scrimmage yards this season.
The pick: Falcons -7.5
Projected score: Falcons 28-20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
Am I really going to make a 14.5-point favorite playing in a divisional game a best bet? Yes. Here’s why:
- The Colts beat the Titans in Tennessee by 21 points last month.
- It doesn’t look like Tennessee will have wide receiver Calvin Ridley, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons or cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (IR) on Sunday.
- Half of Tennessee’s losses this season have come by at least 18 points.
- The Titans are 1-6 ATS according to my numbers.
The Colts offense is historically efficient, as Daniel Jones and Co. average 3.46 points per drive this season, the highest mark by any team since the turn of the millennium. This line is warranted.
The pick: Colts -14.5
Projected score: Colts 30-7
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
I mean, this is Aaron Rodgers’ Super Bowl. No, I don’t think he hates the Packers, but he is one motivated individual. When the Packers drafted Jordan Love in the first round back in 2020, Rodgers decided to win two straight MVPs.
I find it fascinating that the Packers are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, because it’s not like they have been playing incredibly well. They lost to the Browns, tied the Cowboys, and then found ways to win vs. two lesser opponents in the Bengals and Arizona Cardinals. It’s very clear that this Steelers defense has some holes, but it’s hard not to back a motivated Rodgers on his home field as an underdog.
If you’re biased and hate Aaron Rodgers, then consider that Mike Tomlin is 21-7-3 ATS (75%) in his career as a home underdog, and that Green Bay has lost six straight trips to Pittsburgh. Plus, the Packers have failed to cover in four straight games, and are 0-3 ATS on the road this season.
The pick: Steelers +3
Projected score: Steelers 27-26
Other Week 8 picks
Chargers (-3) 24-20 over Vikings
Bills 27-20 over Panthers (+7.5)
Ravens 26-24 over Bears (+6.5)
Patriots (-7) 25-17 over Browns
49ers (+2.5) 23-17 over Texans
Buccaneers 23-21 over Saints (+4.5)
Broncos 33-30 over Cowboys (+3.5)
Chiefs (-11.5) 27-14 over Commanders
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