It’s fitting that “Stranger Things” is back with a new season, because I kind of feel like we’re currently living in the NFL’s version of the upside down. I mean, that’s the only way to explain how the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS are leading their division this late in the season. I repeat, the Jaguars are in first place.
Also, the Panthers have a better record than the Chiefs and the New York Jets somehow made it to December without being eliminated from the playoffs, which might actually be the most surprising thing that’s happened this year. I feel like the Jets are usually eliminated in October, but thanks to their win in Week 13, they are still mathematically alive to earn a wild card playoff berth. All they need is for the Chargers, Colts and Bills to all lose out, the AFC North winner will have to finish 8-9 and the Texans… You know what, this an absurd exercise. The Jets aren’t making the playoffs. I’m not even picking them to win this week.
So who am I taking this week? Let’s get to the Week 14 picks and find out.
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NFL Week 14 picks
Dallas (6-5-1) at Detroit (7-5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
I know it’s lame to come up with your own nickname, but I think I’m going to have to have everyone start calling me “Mr. Thursday Night.” And yes, I’ve already filed three trademarks for that.
Due to the short turnaround time, Thursday games are generally unpredictable, but I have apparently cracked the code to predicting them. Since Week 3, I’ve gone 11-1 against the spread in Thursday games and that includes going 3-0 on Thanksgiving, a day where I took ALL THE UNDERDOGS. I’m telling you, this “Mr. Thursday Night” thing is going to catch on. I’m probably going to have t-shirts made.
As for this game, it features two teams that are basically a mirror image of each other on offense from a statistical standpoint:
- The Cowboys average 29.3 points per game while the Lions average 29.2. That ranks second and third in the NFL.
- The Cowboys average 393.1 yards per game while the Lions average 376.3 yards per game. That ranks first and third in the NFL.
The big difference between these two teams is how they make that offensive success happen. The Lions love to run the ball, ranking fourth in the NFL with 138.1 rushing yards per game. On the other hand, the Cowboys prefer to do things through the air, ranking first in the NFL with 271.3 yards per game.
When we have two high-powered offenses facing each other, my pick usually comes down to which defense I trust more and right now, it’s the one in Dallas. Heading into their Week 10 bye, the Cowboys had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up an average of 143 yards per game. Since adding Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, the Cowboys have given up an average of just 69.7 rushing yards per game in three games. They have chopped their rushing total IN HALF. That’s a huge improvement and it should help them this week, because the Lions struggle to win when they can’t run the ball. The Lions are 0-4 this year when they’re held under 100 yards rushing.
If the Cowboys win this game and the Eagles lose on Monday to the Chargers, Dallas could be just a HALF GAME out of first place heading into Week 15. If the Cowboys win the NFC East, Jerry Jones might get voted executive of the year. I’m not going to get ahead of myself here, but if that happens, we should get t-shirts made.
Speaking of t-shirts, I’ll be wearing my “Mr. Thursday Night” shirt this week and it’s going to have a star on it because I’m taking the Cowboys.
PICK: Cowboys 34-27 over Lions | Cowboys +3 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Cincinnati (4-8) at Buffalo (8-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)
This game was originally scheduled to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET, but for some reason, the NFL decided to flex it to 1 p.m. ET, which means that half the country won’t be able to watch it. With Joe Burrow back for the Bengals, the NFL might want to think about re-flexing this game back to 4:25 p.m. ET. I’m not sure what the rules are on re-flexing, so I’m going to go ahead and Google it. Just give me a second. OK, so I just read the NFL’s entire flex scheduling policy and the word “re-flex” wasn’t mentioned a single time. It’s like they didn’t even think of this possibility.
I’m not going to sit here and say that the Bengals are the most exciting 4-8 team of all-time, but they might be the most exciting 4-8 team of all-time. and that starts with Burrow. The Bengals star quarterback is trying to save Cincinnati’s season and if he’s going to do it, he’ll have to engineer an upset on the road in Buffalo.
The big reason you might want to believe in Burrow this week is because he has not lost a start in more THAN A YEAR. Since Dec. 2, 2024, Burrow has started eight games and he’s gone 8-0 in those starts. The Bengals are a different team when Burrow plays, which is something you may have noticed when they destroyed the Ravens, 32-14, on Thanksgiving. The most surprising part of that win might have been the fact that the Bengals defense held Baltimore to just 14 points.
Although the defense has been historically bad this year, it seems to play better when Burrow is on the field. In Burrow’s eight starts over the past 12 months, the defense has surrendered just 18.9 points per game. On the flip side, the defense gave up an average of 35.2 points per game in the nine games that Burrow missed this year.
Burrow has faced Sean McDermott’s defense twice and he’s gone off both times: Not only is he 2-0 against McDermott and the Bills, but he’s averaged 295 passing yards and two touchdown passes per game. With Tee Higgins likely returning, the Bengals offense should be at full strength, so I won’t be surprised if we see Burrow hit those numbers again.
Of course, even if Burrow plays well, there’s a good chance that Josh Allen could have a big day against the Bengals defense, so I won’t be surprised if this turns into a shootout and if that happens, America is going to miss it because the game got flexed to 1 p.m. ET. Roger Goodell, if you’re reading, there’s still time for a re-flex! That being said, the Bills are probably completely fine with keeping this game at 1 p.m. ET because they’re 13-0 in their past 13 HOME games that have kicked off at 1 p.m. ET.
No one beats Josh “Midafternoon” Allen in the 1 p.m. ET slot. Well, no one except for Joe Burrow, who has NEVER lost a December road game in his career (5-0). With their season on the line, the Bengals are going to be desperate and I can’t pick against a quarterback who’s gone a full year without losing.
PICK: Bengals 27-24 over Bills | Bengals +6 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
If there are two AFC playoff contenders that I don’t trust right now, it’s definitely the Steelers and the Ravens. I also don’t trust oat milk, people who like mayonnaise or squirrels, just in case you’re wondering where things fall on my scale of trustworthiness.
Before the season started, the Steelers and Ravens were both viewed as playoff contenders, but things have gotten so bad that people are now talking themselves into the 4-8 Bengals possibly winning the AFC North and it actually seems completely plausible.
Both of these teams lost in Week 13 and I’m not sure which loss was worse. The Ravens got embarrassed by the Bengals in a game where they turned the ball over five times, including three turnovers from Lamar Jackson. If you want to see the Ravens’ season summed up in one highlight, it’s this.
My main takeaway from that play is that Lamar Jackson has not been playing like Lamar Jackson this year: He’s turning the ball over at a high rate, he seems hesitant to run and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in a home game since Week 3, which I’m only pointing out because the Ravens are playing at home this week.
The quarterback situation isn’t much better Pittsburgh, and by that, I mean it’s actually worse. Aaron Rodgers is playing with a fracture in his left hand, and although that’s noble, noble doesn’t usually win you games in the NFL. With his broken hand, Rodgers threw for just 117 yards against the Bills. Mason Rudolph also got some playing time for Pittsburgh: He threw exactly three passes against Buffalo and completed one of them, but it was to a Bills player, so it wasn’t ideal.
When it comes to these two teams, I definitely feel slightly better about the Ravens’ QB situation. I’m not sure if Jackson is banged up, but he’s playing like he’s dealing with some sort of injury. The good news for the Ravens is that Jackson will have gotten 10 days of rest heading into this game since Baltimore played on Thanksgiving.
I’ve doing NFL picks for more than 10 years and I’ve never predicted a 0-0 final score and I was tempted to that here, but I think Lamar looks just healthy enough to put some points on the board and lead Baltimore to a win.
PICK: Ravens 20-17 over Steelers | Steelers +5.5 | Odds via BetMGM
Chicago (9-3) at Green Bay (8-3-1)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)
The Packers-Bears rivalry hasn’t been much of a rivalry lately with the Green Bay winning 11 of the past 12 games between the two teams. However, Ben Johnson clearly wants this to be a rivalry and I know that because he threw a giant bath tub full of gasoline on the rivalry fire back in January. During his introductory press conference, Johnson went OUT OF HIS WAY to mention Matt LaFleur, and he was NOT complimenting the Packers’ coach.
“To be quite frank with you, I kind of enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year,” Johnson said.
During Johnson’s three years as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, Detroit went 5-1 against the Packers, so it’s easy to see why the Bears’ new coach is confident. That being said, the quote above came on Jan. 22 and I’m guessing LaFleur has been planning for this game ever since.
The Bears have definitely been the biggest surprise of the year: Even if you thought they were going to be good, I’m guessing that no one outside of Ben Johnson’s house thought they would hold the top spot in the NFC heading into Week 14.
Even though the Bears are 9-3, it’s still tough to tell how good they are. There are seven defenses in the NFL that have given up less than 20 points per game this season and the Bears have faced exactly none of them. There are six teams in the NFL that have given up less than 300 yards per game this year and the Bears have faced exactly zero of them. Basically, Chicago’s offense hasn’t really been tested, but that will change this week.
The Packers happen to fall into both categories I just mentioned: They’ve given up the fourth-fewest yards per game (284.8) and fifth-fewest points per game (18.8). If the Bears are going to win, they’re going to have to be able to run the ball. In 12 games, the Bears are 6-0 this season when they rush for at least 140 yards, but 3-3 when they finish below that number.
When it comes to stopping the run, the Packers have been one of the best teams in the NFL. They’ve faced two of the top four rushing offenses in the league this and they went 3-0 in those games. They held the Lions to an average of 82.5 yards in two games and they held the Commanders to just 51 yards on the ground. Both teams have averaged more than 135 yards per game on the ground this year.
Last week, I said the winner of the Lions-Packers Thanksgiving game would win the division and I took the Packers, so I’m not going to back out on them now. I’ll say the Packers win and then LaFleur opens his postgame press conference by saying, “To be quite frank with you, I kind of enjoyed beating Ben Johnson.”
PICK: Packers 24-17 over Bears | Packers -6.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:
Houston (7-5) at Kansas City (6-6)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
I feel like I’ve been saying this for the past three weeks, but I actually mean it this week, if the Chiefs don’t win on Sunday, they’re done. The Chiefs have already lost to the Bills, Chargers and Jaguars, and if you add a loss to the Texans, that means Kansas City would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against almost every wild card contender and that’s the first tiebreaker when it comes to wild card teams. If the first tiebreaker was “How many MVP awards has your QB won,” then the Chiefs would be in good shape, but it’s not.
Basically, this feels like an elimination game for the Chiefs. I picked them to lose last week in Dallas, but I will not be picking them to lose this week and that’s mostly because they’re pretty much unbeatable whenever they play a Sunday home game in the month of December. In their past 15 December home games that have been played on a Sunday, the Chiefs are 14-1 and that only loss came by three points.
Also, let’s not forget that the Chiefs are a completely different team at home. Although they’re 6-6, they’re 5-1 at home this year and they’ve averaged 27.7 points in those six homes games.
Now you might be thinking that the Chiefs don’t look like the Chiefs this year, but I’m starting to think that we say that same thing every year around Week 13 and then they suddenly figure out how to fix things and they end up getting to the Super Bowl.
- in 2022, the Chiefs lost in Week 13 to fall to 9-3 and it looked like there was no way they were going to win the Super Bowl, but then they did.
- In 2023, the Chiefs lost in Week 13 to fall to 8-4 and it looked like there was no way they were going to win the Super Bowl, but then they did.
- In 2024, they barely beat a bad Raiders team in Week 13 (they won 19-17) and some people took that as a sign that the wheels were going to fall off the Kansas City wagon. Instead, they rode the wagon all the way to the Super Bowl.
- In 2025, the Chiefs lost to the Cowboys in Week 13, and now, their season is hanging on by a thread.
The Chiefs always seem to struggle at some point during the regular season and then we all write them off and then they eventually get the last laugh by getting to the Super Bowl. I’m not getting conned this year.
Yes, the Texans have the best defense in the NFL, but the Chiefs have one big thing working in their favor and that’s the weather. The kickoff temperature is supposed to be hovering around 25 degrees on Sunday night and if I’ve noticed one thing about dome teams over the years, it’s that they hate playing outdoors when the temperature is hovering around 25 degrees.
The Texans were in a similar situation last year — they had to play a cold December game in Kansas City — and C.J. Stroud responded by throwing two interceptions in a 27-19 loss to the Chiefs. I’m expecting something similar on Sunday.
PICK: Chiefs 27-20 over Texans | Chiefs -3 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 14 picks: All the rest
Seahawks 31-13 over Falcons
Browns 20-13 over Titans
Viking 19-16 over Commanders
Dolphins 23-17 over Jets
Buccaneers 27-20 over Saints
Colts 26-23 over Jaguars
Broncos 27-17 over Raiders
Rams 30–20 over Cardinals
JUSTIN HERBERT INJURY WATCH
The Chargers QB has a broken left hand, and right now, it’s unclear if he’ll be playing on Monday night against the Eagles, which means one thing: I have to make two picks for the game.
- IF HERBERT DOES NOT PLAY: Eagles 24-17 over Chargers
- IF HERBERT PLAYS: Chargers 24-20 over Eagles
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Seahawks would destroy the Vikings in the Sam Darnold revenge game, and guess what happened? The Seahawks destroyed the Vikings in the Sam Darnold revenge game. Now, Darnold didn’t really do anything in this game, so I’m not sure if it counts as him getting revenge, but he did get to watch his old team get embarrassed, 26-0. When I made my prediction, I was assuming that J.J. McCarthy would be playing and that he would throw three or four interceptions and as it turns out, I was half right. McCarthy didn’t play, but Max Brosmer did, and he threw four interceptions, including the one below, which might be the worst interception thrown by any quarterback this year.
I don’t blame Brosmer for his performance though, I blame the Vikings for forcing an undrafted rookie to make his first career start on the road in a hostile environment. I don’t think they quite thought that decision through enough.
Worst pick: Last week, I went on a long rant about how you should never pick the Cardinals to win because the decision will almost certainly end up backfiring in your face after they end up losing in the weirdest way possible, and for some reason, I decided not to take my own advice. Once again, I picked the Cardinals to win, and not surprisingly, the pick once again blew up in my face. This time around, they lost to the Buccaneers in a game where they turned the ball over twice in Tampa Bay territory, they had two failed fourth downs and their kicker missed a 43-yard yard field goal in the second half even though he had hit 13 of 14 kicks from inside 45 yards on the season going into Week 13.
The losses have been so absurd that their fans are now only tuning in t hate watch the team.
If you want your soul sucked out of you, be a Cardinals fan.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’m going to start sharing that information with you now that we’ve got 12 full weeks of information. Here’s a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year.
Teams I’m 11-1 picking this year (Straight up): Titans, Raiders
Teams I’m 10-2 picking this year (Straight up): Seahawks, Saints, Colts, Broncos
Longest winning streak: Raiders (11 straight games picked correctly)
Teams I’m the worst at picking: Chiefs (5-7), Eagles (5-7), Falcons (5-7)
Longest losing streak: Eagles (Three straight games picked incorrectly)
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 13: 11-5
SU overall: 125-68-1
Against the spread in Week 13: 6-9-1
ATS overall: 93-100-1
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably trying to figure out what he’s going to do with all the ‘Mr Thursday Night’ t-shirts that he just had made.
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