NFL predictions: NFC North race could go down to wire, according to proven model

The Chicago Bears haven’t been in first place in the NFC North this late into a season since they won their last division title, in 2018. But coach Ben Johnson says it’s too early to be concerned about the standings.

On Sunday, soon after the Bears nipped the Vikings, 19-17, on a 48-yard Cairo Santos field goal as time expired, Johnson was asked about being in first place in the division. His response? Pump the brakes.

“Guys, we’re midseason right now,” he said. “So we’re not even looking at that. We’ve earned seven wins so far, and we’re really looking for the opportunity to go 1-0 next week.”

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model agree with Johnson that the NFC North race is only just beginning. One game separates the top three teams in the division — Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit — with Minnesota three games behind the Bears.

According to the Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the chase for the division title has a good chance of going down to Week 18 when the Bears host the Lions and the Packers visit the Vikings.

Even though Chicago enters Week 12 with a one-game lead, the model says the team has only the third best chance to win the NFC North. 

Why does the model prefer the Lions and Packers to win the division? One word: schedule. Of the Bears’ seven remaining seven games this season, six are against teams that are above .500. That includes two games against Green Bay and one against Detroit. Their remaining strength of schedule (57.2%) is the toughest of all 32 NFL teams. In addition, despite being atop the division, Chicago still has a negative point differential (-6).

The model gives the Lions the best chance to win the division based on the fact that four of their next five games are at home. The Packers have the second best chance, but, according to Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, that assumes that running back Josh Jacobs is OK, and the offense can find an answers without tight end Tucker Kraft, who’s out for the season with a torn ACL.

Green Bay still has five division games remaining; that’s two more than any other NFC North team. The Packers host the Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field in the first of three games against division opponents.

“Obviously the divisional games are absolutely critical,” Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur said Monday. “And you talk about this three-game stretch, but really all that matters is this one game. And for us right now, we’ve just got to focus on what’s right in front of us.”