In case anyone needed a reminder, Aaron Rodgers—the 41-year-old Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback, vet of 21 seasons, four-time NFL MVP and future Hall of Famer—attended his press conference after the Steelers’ 23-9 win over the Browns on Sunday while wearing a black baseball cap with the following words emblazoned on the side: NOT MY FIRST RODEO.
So when he was asked about whether he believed his team is trending toward being a contender in the AFC, Rodgers’ words carried extra weight.
“Well, that’s where we want to be, and we’re putting ourselves into position to start entering the conversation,” he said. “But a lot can happen.”
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SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and Projection Model agree with Rodgers that it’s time to start taking Pittsburgh seriously in the AFC. The Steelers (4-1) already lead the AFC North by 2.5 games over the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) and can increase their lead with a victory over the Bengals on Thursday night at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The injury-ravaged Ravens and Browns sit at the bottom of the division at 1-5 each.
According to the projection model, no team in the AFC has a better chance to win its division than the Steelers (87.8%). Only the Buccaneers of the NFC South have a better chance in the entire league, at 93.5%. Only the Bills (22.4%) have a better chance of winning the AFC than Pittsburgh (16.5%) according to the model.
The numbers are more remarkable when you consider the model projects the Steelers to finish with just the third-best record in the conference behind both Colts (5-1) and Bills (4-2).
| AFC team | Projected wins | Win division | Reach playoffs | Win AFC | Win Super Bowl |
| Colts | 11.4 | 71.1% | 93.2% | 15.3% | 6.3% |
| Bills | 11.2 | 68.1% | 91.7% | 22.4% | 11.7% |
| Steelers | 10.7 | 87.8% | 92.5% | 16.5% | 7.4% |
| Broncos | 10.7 | 37.5% | 81.8% | 12.9% | 6.7% |
| Chiefs | 10.3 | 34.4% | 76.4% | 15.7% | 8.7% |
| Patriots | 9.8 | 31.6% | 65.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Chargers | 9.8 | 28.0% | 70.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Jaguars | 9.4 | 19.6% | 56.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Texans | 8.7 | 9.3% | 44.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
So for the Thursday Night Football game against Cincinnati, keeping pace with Buffalo and Indianapolis will be what’s on the line for Rodgers &. Co. The Bills have an easier remaining strength of scheduled than Pittsburgh down the stretch, while the Colts have the advantage of an extra win and a bye week remaining over the Steelers.
Pittsburgh enters Thursday’s game on a three-game winning streak, while the Bengals have dropped four in a row since losing starting quarterback Joe Burrow indefinitely due to a turf toe injury. Defense has led the Steelers during their hot stretch. Over the last three games, they have allowed just 14.7 points per game while forcing seven turnovers and registering 17 sacks. Pittsburgh has sacked the quarterback at least five times in three straight games and in Sunday’s win over Cleveland, the Steelers hit Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel 16 times, the second most by any NFL team in a game this season.
The defense has forced 10 turnovers this year, which is tied for third most in the NFL. That’s bad news for a Cincinnati team that has turned the ball over 11 times, which is tied for the most in the league.
The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals.
But Thursday games on the road haven’t been friendly to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have lost eight of their last nine Thursday road games under coach Mike Tomlin, including four in row.
Given the roll Pittsburgh is on, that trend seems to be in jeopardy.
“Thursday is all about the league and making money, and we understand that,” Rodgers said. “It used to be just Thanksgiving Thursdays, and they added obviously Thursday games. And then Amazon coming in with a nice chunk of change. So we know what it’s all about. But it’s the same; everybody’s got at least one of these, so we just suck it up. We go on the road and take care of business, and we get a little break.”
No one would know better than Rodgers.
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