NFL playoff projections: AFC’s surprise top seed, Chiefs and Bears out of picture

With their win over Kansas City in Week 11, the Denver Broncos didn’t just crush the Chiefs’ chances of winning the AFC West, they might have also put a dagger in their overall playoff chances. 

For the first time all season, the Chiefs are NOT being projected to make the playoffs. Since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, not only have the Chiefs made the playoffs every year, but they’ve made it to at least the AFC TITLE GAME in every season. 

If the Chiefs are out, you might be wondering who’s getting in the postseason and since everyone wants to know who’s going to make the playoffs, we’re going to be publishing a projection every week for the rest of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the season. Using those numbers, we’ll project the 14 teams that we expect to make the playoffs, plus we’ll give you the postseason chances for all 32 teams. 

With that in mind, let’s get to the projection. Remember, this is just a projection. If you want to see the actual playoff picture, we’ve got that here. 

AFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. New England Patriots (AFC East champion)

• Remaining schedule: at Bengals, Giants, Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins

The Patriots (9-2) haven’t earned the No. 1 overall seed since 2017, but the computer thinks that drought is finally going to end this year. One reason the computer continues to love New England is because the Patriots have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL at .371 (No other AFC team is under .450). 

2. Denver Broncos (AFC West champion)

• Remaining schedule: at Commanders, at Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers

The Broncos (9-2) haven’t won a division title in 10 years, but the computer thinks that drought is going to end this season. According to SportsLine, the Broncos have a 78.5% chance of winning the division, which is well ahead of both the Chargers (11.7%) and Chiefs (9.8%). The Broncos also have the highest Super Bowl odds of any team in the AFC with the computer giving them a 9.5% chance to win it all. The Patriots are the next closest AFC team at 8.7%. 

3. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South champion)

• Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Texans

Over the final seven weeks, the Colts (8-2) have the most difficult strength of schedule of any AFC team, which is why the computer has them down here in the third spot. As you can see above, the Colts have zero games left against teams that are currently below .500. 

4. Baltimore Ravens (AFC North champion)

• Remaining schedule: Jets, Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers

The Ravens (5-5) have won four straight games, and all of a sudden, a team that was once 1-5 is now the favorite to win the division. According to the computer, the Ravens have a 56.5% chance of taking home the AFC North title, which puts them comfortably ahead of the Steelers, who are at 43.2%. The computer also thinks the AFC North is only going to send one team to the playoffs, so this should be a heated battle between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, who still have to play each other twice.  

5. Buffalo Bills (Wild card 1)

• Remaining schedule: at Texans, at Steelers, Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets

The computer has basically given up on the Bills (7-3). At least when it comes to their chances of winning the AFC East. Heading into Week 12, the Bills have just a 20.7% chance of winning the division. If the Bills get stuck with the fifth seed, that could be trouble: This team hasn’t won a ROAD game in the wild card round since 1981. They’re also 0-8 in all road playoff games over the past 30 years.  

6. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild card 2)

• Remaining schedule: Raiders, Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos

The Chargers (7-4) imploded with a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars in Week 11, but the computer still thinks L.A. will end up in the playoffs. The Chargers and Chiefs are both projected to get to 10 wins, but the Chargers will win the tiebreaker due to a better division record. 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (Wild card 3)

• Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, at Titans, Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans

The computer has the Jaguars (6-4), Chargers and Chiefs duking it out for the final playoff spot with all three teams getting to 10 wins. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they’ll lose the divisional tiebreaker to the Chargers. After that, they’ll lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Jags, which will leave them as the odd man out. That being said, the computer does view the final two spots in the AFC as a virtual coin flip (with a three-sided coin): The Chargers have a 60.4% chance of getting into the playoffs. The Jaguars are right behind them at 59.7% while the Chiefs are at 57.7%. 

Other AFC playoff chances: Chiefs (57.7%), Steelers (56.3%), Texans (20.5%), Bengals (0.5%), Dolphins (0.2%), Browns (0.0%), Raiders (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Titans (0.0%).
Note: The Raiders, Jets, Browns and Titans aren’t eliminated, but their odds are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.

AFC wild-card round projection
(7) Jaguars at (2) Broncos
(6) Chargers at (3) Colts
(5) Bills at (4) Ravens
Bye: Patriots

NFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East champion)

• Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, Bears, at Chargers, Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, Commanders

The Eagles (8-2) are projected to finish at the top of the NFC and one big reason the computer loves Philly is because of their impressive wins. The Eagles have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams, Buccaneers, Packers and Lions. The Eagles also have the best conference record at 7-1, which is another tiebreaker they’ll hold almost any other team. The computer also views the Eagles as the Super Bowl favorite, giving them a 12.6% chance to win it all (No other team is above 10%). 

2. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West champion)

• Remaining schedule: Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Cardinals, Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, Cardinals

Thanks to their win over the Seahawks in Week 11, the Rams (8-2) are now viewed as the heavy favorite to win the NFC West. According to the computer, the Rams have a 70.3% chance of winning the division, while the Seahawks are sitting at just 23.9%. The 49ers are also hanging around with a 5.8% chance of winning the NFC West title. 

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South champion)

• Remaining schedule: at Rams, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, Panthers

Although the Buccaneers (6-4) are clinging to just a half game lead in the NFC South, the computer views them as a virtual lock to win the division with Tampa Bay being given a 93.9% chance. One reason the computer doesn’t like the Panthers is because they have the third-most difficult remaining strength of schedule (.590) while the Bucs have the fourth-easiest (.438). 

4. Detroit Lions (NFC North champion)

• Remaining schedule: Giants, Packers, Cowboys, at Rams, Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears

The computer might malfunction trying to figure out who’s going to win the NFC North. Right now, the Lions (6-4) are being given the edge, but just barely. Detroit has a 38.7% chance of winning the division, which is slightly ahead of the Packers, who are at 35.9%. Although the Bears (7-3) are currently in first place, the computer has their chances at just 25.2%. One huge thing working in Detroit’s favor is the fact that the Lions get to play six of their final seven games indoors. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (Wild card 1)

• Remaining schedule: at Titans, Vikings, at Falcons, Colts, Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers

After Sam Darnold’s four interception game against the Rams, the computer doesn’t like Seattle’s chance of winning the division, but the computer does view the Seahawks (7-3) as a lock to make the playoffs. Heading into Week 12, Seattle has a 93.2% chance of getting into the postseason, which is the highest of any team in the NFL that’s not being projected to win its division.  

6. San Francisco 49ers (Wild card 2)

• Remaining schedule: Panthers, at Browns, Titans, at Colts, Bears, Seahawks

With Brock Purdy back in the lineup, the computer seems to be a big fan of the 49ers (7-4). San Francisco is being given a 80.4% chance of making the postseason, which means the computer is pretty confident that the NFC West is going to be sending three teams into the playoffs. 

7. Green Bay Packers (Wild card 3)

• Remaining schedule: Vikings, at Lions, Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, Ravens, at Vikings

According to the computer, the final wild card spot is going to come down to the Packers and the Bears, who just so happen to have the two most difficult remaining schedules in the NFL. The computer has these two teams finishing with the same amount of wins, but the Packers will be on top because of their tie. The Packers and Bears will face each other twice in a three-week span in December, so the race for this wild card spot (and possibly the NFC North title) will likely go down to the wire. 

Other NFC Playoff Chances: Bears (65.1%), Panthers (11.3%), Cowboys (8.5%), Vikings (1.3%), Falcons (0.6%), Cardinals (0.0%), Commanders (0.0%), Giants (0.0%), Saints (0.0%).

NFC wild-card round projection
(7) Packers at (2) Rams
(6) 49ers at (3) Buccaneers
(5) Seahawks at (4) Lions
Bye: Eagles