After digging into the NFL division winner markets, now it’s time we look at the odds to make the playoffs and odds to miss the playoffs for all 32 teams. These are popular futures bets to make for bettors looking to take aggressive stances on certain teams. For example, the Broncos could be found as high as +790 to make the playoffs when we went through last year’s betting strategy article focused on make/miss playoff bets, a longshot that paid out big for Denver backers in 2024. The Commanders and Vikings were two more teams with significant plus odds to come through in the make playoff betting market.
Backing the big favorites is not a key part of playoff futures betting strategy, especially for casual bettors. Not only are you required to tie up part of your bankroll on a bet that won’t resolve for more than four months, but also the payout on large favorites is significantly smaller. Of course, those favorites are not assured of paying off either — the 49ers crashed as -450 favorites to make the playoffs last year, for example.
Below, I’ll look at my favorite bet to miss the playoffs at the best odds available in the market as of this writing. I’ll also share a sleeper in each conference that I think is worth considering as a make playoffs bet. However, I dove deeper into all the playoff markets over at SportsLine and shared my six make/miss playoff best bets and eight leans worth a look for those looking for more NFL betting strategy.
The Patriots have added a proven coach in Mike Vrabel, who could quickly make the roster competitive, and are poised to see Drake Maye take a leap in Year 2. But I’d argue both things have to happen for the Patriots to reach their projections, as they’re favored in the market at some books to finish with a winning record. This was a terrible team last year, poised to earn the No. 1 overall pick before beating a noncompetitive Bills team in Week 18 and dropping to fourth overall.
The Patriots took Will Campbell with their first-round pick, and while he may turn out to be a quality left tackle, he certainly wasn’t considered a lock blue-chip prospect at the position with his measurables. The team’s other O-line additions struggled with their previous teams — Garrett Bradbury has never lived up to being a first-round selection, while Morgan Moses at age 34 might no longer be a capable starter in the league. Stefon Diggs turns 32 in November and is coming off a torn ACL, so I’m not sure he profiles as a true No. 1 receiver for Maye. That puts a lot of pressure on Maye to step up and elevate the group around him. He certainly had flashes during his rookie season, and the terrible defense certainly deserves a big share of the blame for his 2-10 record as a starter prior to the meaningless Week 18 win.
But who’s to say that defense is going to be much better this year even after shelling out four big-money deals? Milton Williams won’t have the talent around him that he did on the Philadelphia D-line, Harold Landry underachieved for much of his Tennessee tenure, Carlton Davis has been up and down in his career before a quality campaign in Detroit last year, and Robert Spillane might be just a guy. That’s not to say all of those guys will disappoint, just that there are plenty of potential outcomes on the table for this unit after finishing 20th in scoring last year.
The price on the Patriots to miss the playoffs was -140 until recently, and it’s starting to creep up. I still love it at -155, but I’d also consider making a play on them to go Under 8.5 wins if you don’t want to pay the level of juice we’re talking about here.
There was a lot of excitement around the Bears last year, so much so that they were favored to make the playoffs. I faded them as part of my playoff betting strategy article last year, and they turned out to be terrible on offense, ranking 28th in scoring. I don’t see a world where that’s the case this year with Ben Johnson taking over as coach, two more weapons added in the draft at the skill positions and an improved offensive line with a completely rebuilt interior.
Joe Thuney has graded out at PFF as a top-10 guard in each of the last seven seasons, while Drew Dalman has been a top-four center in each of the last two years. With tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright coming off strong seasons, the unit has the chance to be a strength after long featuring as a weakness for Chicago. It’s somewhat similar to what happened in Detroit, though the tackles certainly aren’t on the same level as the pair the Lions have.
Speaking of Detroit, Johnson has proven to be one of the best offensive minds in the game, and he has a real chance to stick long-term as a quality coach similar to a Kyle Shanahan once he finally left the OC ranks for the right opportunity. He has at his disposal a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback and an offense that goes five-deep with its pass-catchers, including D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.
If the offense reaches its upside, it may not matter what happens on defense in terms of whether Chicago is a playoff team. But I like Dennis Allen’s chances of leading a quality unit there after his long run of effective defenses in New Orleans prior to last year, when a noncompetitive offense gave it little chance to succeed. Pairing a veteran defensive coordinator with an up-and-coming offensive-minded head coach puts the Bears in a great position to succeed right away, and I think they’ll have a lot of success in an NFC North that could see the Lions and Vikings take a step back.
AFC make playoffs sleeper: New York Jets +520 (FanDuel)
Admittedly, this is a huge swing, but it’s one I think has value. The Jets locker room did not seem like it was a fun place last year, with Robert Saleh getting a quick hook after a 2-3 start and things getting worse from there. With Aaron Rodgers now in Pittsburgh, the Jets have the potential to make a surprising run as an AFC playoff darkhorse.
Justin Fields is the new quarterback, and I consider him an upgrade. He wasn’t asked to do much as a passer in Pittsburgh, and it’ll be on new OC Tanner Engstrand, who comes over from Detroit with new coach Aaron Glenn, to play to his strengths. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are two premium weapons to lean on, and Fields has averaged more than 50 yards per game as a rusher in his career as well. The team has a strong interior on the offensive line, and we’ll see if their last two first-round picks can step up at the tackle spots. If so, it could be the best Jets offense we have seen in a while — the last time the unit finished higher than 23rd in scoring or 24th in yardage was 2015.
The defense has talent at every level, though figuring out the secondary aside from Sauce Gardner is probably the highest priority. Jamien Sherwood was a revelation at linebacker last year, and Quinnen Williams is still a presence up front. The key to unlocking the unit’s upside could be Jermaine Johnson’s recovery from last year’s torn Achilles, but he should be available for Week 1. The unit also has to avoid key injuries, but the new coach did an admirable job working around a mountain of defensive injuries with the Lions last year.
If you told me to pick my seven playoff teams in the AFC, the Jets wouldn’t make the cut. But they may be the first or second team out, which is far different than what we’re seeing in the odds market, where only the Browns are given longer odds to make the playoffs in the AFC at FanDuel. That makes them an excellent value as a sleeper to back in 2025.
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