The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are nearly unbeatable at home in conference championship games, combining to win nine of the 10 contests they’ve hosted. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are a combined 6-7 on the road when a Super Bowl berth is on the line.
Therefore, New England and Los Angeles will have their work cut out for them Sunday if they hope to keep alive their hopes for the Lombardi Trophy. The No. 2 seed Patriots visit Empower Field to take on the top-seeded Broncos at 3 p.m. in the AFC Championship Game, while the fifth-seeded Rams face the No. 1 seed Seahawks at Lumen Field in the NFC Championship Game at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Including the playoffs, the Broncos are 9-1 at home this season, but they’ll have backup Jarrett Stidham under center as he makes his first start since 2023 in place of an injured Bo Nix. Stidham has a difficult task ahead of him as New England won all eight of its contests away from Gillette Stadium this season. Seattle has gone 7-2 on its own field, while Los Angeles is 7-4 on the road.
The Patriots played their first two postseason games at home, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, while the Broncos edged the visiting Buffalo Bills in overtime. The Rams got past the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears on the road, and the Seahawks routed the San Francisco 49ers in Seattle.
For Sunday’s matchups, top sportsbooks have set the passing yards prop for New England’s Drake Maye at 223.5 yards, the rushing yards prop for Los Angeles’ Kyren Williams at 52.5 and the receiving yards props for Denver’s Courtland Sutton at 46.5 and Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 90.5.
Before you play a side on Maye, Williams, Sutton, Smith-Njigba or any player prop for Sunday’s conference championship games, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +1916 on his last 107 NFL player prop picks. Here are his picks and analysis.
Marvin Mims Jr. Over 2.5 rushing yards
Mims’ role has ebbed and flowed throughout the season, but the speedster was instrumental for the Broncos last week, recording eight receptions for 93 yards.
While Mims still could make his mark in the passing game, I’m expecting Broncos head coach Sean Payton to get creative with his play calling in an effort to help his backup quarterback and bolster the ground attack.
Mims had 12 rushing attempts this season, clearing this line in nine of his 15 games. It’s a great matchup against the Patriots, who allowed wide receivers 8.9 yards per carry on 15 attempts in the regular season (per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this up to Over 3.5 yards.
Matthew Stafford Over 35.5 pass attempts
Stafford is coming off consecutive performances in which he had 42 pass attempts, and I see him poised for a similar workload against the Seahawks.
Seattle’s run defense ranks first in DVOA (per FTN) – and it doesn’t take much as it is for the Rams to go pass heavy, as they rank third in neutral gamescript pass rate (61%, per RotoViz).
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are not a ball-control heavy offense as they allow their opponents to execute 62.5 offensive plays per game.
I expect Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay to lean on his MVP candidate quarterback in this matchup. I’d bet this up to Over 36.5.
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