Monday Night Football in Week 8 will pit the Kansas City Chiefs against the Washington Commanders at Arrowhead Stadium, and kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 points, according to the latest NFL odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 48. The biggest splash that Travis Kelce has made in 2025 was getting engaged to Taylor Swift, but the 10-time Pro Bowl tight end is also still a big part of the Kansas City offense. He leads the Chiefs in receiving yards entering this week and has been picking up steam of late.
Kelce has 16 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown over his last three games, and he’s been a menace throughout his career on Monday Night Football, averaging 76.9 yards in 17 appearances. The latest NFL player props list Kelce to record 50 or more receiving yards at +140, and that’s one of our top NFL longshot props for Chiefs vs. Commanders.
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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 43-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL predictions at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Week 8 NFL longshot picks:
- Travis Kelce, Chiefs, alt line 50+ receiving yards (+140)
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, alt line 30+ rushing yards (+125)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders, anytime touchdown scorer (+225)
Parlay these picks for +1655 odds at DraftKings (odds subject to change)
Travis Kelce, Chiefs, alt line 50+ receiving yards (+140)
Kelce has cleared this hurdle in each of his last three games, and he’s now averaging 53.6 yards per game for the season. On Monday Night Football against the Jaguars three weeks ago, he caught seven passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He’s had at least 50 yards now in his last three appearances on Monday Night Football and has reached that total in 13 of his 17 games played on Monday. The model predicts he finishes with 50 yards on the button.
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Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, alt line 30+ rushing yards (+125)
Mahomes was finally eclipsed by Isiah Pacheco last week as Kansas City’s leading rusher, but he’s in the midst of his most active season as a runner. His four rushing touchdowns in 2025 already tie a career-high, and his 35.7 rushing yards per game tops his previous career-high by 11.3 yards per game. He’s the frontrunner to win his third NFL MVP, and the model likes the value here considering his willingness to run this season, predicting he rushes for 30 yards exactly.
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Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders, anytime touchdown scorer (+225)
Croskey-Merritt was a seventh-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but he had such an attention-grabbing offseason that the Commanders traded Brian Robinson Jr. this offseason to free up some playing time. With Austin Ekeler going down early in the season, Croskey-Merritt is now at the top of the depth chart, and he’s already scored four times in his first seven games. The model predicts that he scores 0.46 touchdowns on average, while the odds imply a 30.8% chance to score.
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