I’ve taken a look at the Super Bowl odds to share our best and worst teams to bet based on market value, and now I’m going to do the same with the division winner market. We hit big in last year’s division winner betting strategy article thanks to going 3-1 on the one-unit plays and then nailing the Rams as a +360 underdog to win the NFC West, and again there are valuable underdogs worth backing, which I’ll get to below.
The Bills are the biggest favorites to win their division at around -300 at most books, with the Ravens and Eagles also comfortably laying juice in their respective divisions. The Chiefs are around -110 to -120 in the AFC West, while the Texans and Buccaneers are around even odds to repeat as division winners. The NFC North and NFC West are the most wide-open divisions in football, per betting market odds. New users can take advantage of the latest bet365 bonus code, which offers $150 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 wager:
At SportsLine, I’ve taken the team in each division I think makes the most sense to bet and ranked them by how good a bet I think the best price in the market represents. For example, even though the Bills seem like a slam dunk in the AFC East, they sit at the bottom of my division winner rankings as I don’t see much NFL betting value in backing them at -290, while there is a sleeper in the division I almost put in that No. 8 spot instead. I’ve also ranked each division on its own from one to four based on betting value, and you can find it all in our how to bet NFL division winners breakdown for 2025.
You can find the No. 1 team in my division winner rankings below. But first, let’s talk about the team I think makes the least sense to bet at their odds.
Worst division winner bet: Atlanta Falcons (+250)
The NFC South odds have the Bucs being about even money to repeat as division champs, with the Falcons the clear second option, the Panthers clearly third at +400 and the Saints way back at +1600. While the Falcons did have the best record of the non-Bucs teams last year, I want no part of them with the pricing going on in this division.
Falcons backers are hanging all their hopes on Michael Penix Jr. being much better than Kirk Cousins was last year, because outside of drafting two edge rushers in the first round, the Falcons haven’t done much else to improve the team. That pass rush was horrendous in 2024, and I believe both rookies need to play at the top of their potential outcomes to drag the unit to respectability.
Cousins was bad last year, but he did complete 67% of his passes and average 250 yards per game while throwing a ton of interceptions. Penix made three starts at the end of the year against two subpar defenses (Giants, Commanders) and the absolute worst (Panthers), completing 58% of his passes while averaging 245 yards and throwing three interceptions, slightly better than Cousins’ 16 in 14 games. Yes, he’s had a full offseason to prep as the starter, but projecting him to be significantly better than Cousins is pure speculation largely based around the idea of “he couldn’t be worse, could he?”
As bad as the Panthers defense was last year, I don’t know that they should have worse odds than Atlanta to win the division until we have proof Penix is an above-average quarterback. Bet on your favorite NFL team by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, which offers new users up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets. Claim that offer here:
All of the top sportsbooks are giving the Packers longer odds to win their division than the Falcons, which I don’t get at all. Even though it wasn’t reflected in their respective records, the Packers played like one of the best teams in the NFL for most of the season, with one big exception — getting swept by the Lions and Vikings, two division rivals that I believe won’t be nearly as good this year. Detroit has to battle the loss of its star coordinators as well as key members of the offensive line, while Minnesota is breaking in an unknown at quarterback after J.J. McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to injury.
By comparison, the Packers are as good as ever, with cornerback being the only unit that saw significant turnover this season while the receiving corps got a shot in the arm by adding Matthew Golden and Savion Williams in the draft. I believe they have a much better chance of replicating last year’s numbers (eighth in scoring and fifth in yardage on offense, sixth in scoring and fifth in yardage on defense) than either Detroit or Minnesota. In fact, their biggest challenge might now be the Bears with the supersized offense and Ben Johnson in tow.
Aside from losing four games to the Lions and Vikings, the Packers lost by five points to the eventual champion Philadelphia Eagles in the Brazil opener and then on a last-second field goal in a meaningless Week 18 game. That was it, with wins against every other opponent. The schedule will be tougher this year, but they get all their hardest nondivisional opponents to come to Green Bay (Eagles, Commanders, Ravens, Bengals), and the only other team that I think could be a tough out is the Broncos in Denver. This looks like an 11-6 or 12-5 team to me that comes out on top in the NFC North.
You can see the entire set of my division winner best bets over at SportsLine. Bet on NFL division winners with the latest BetMGM bonus code, offering new users up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses. Claim that offer here:
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