The Los Angeles Rams won a close NFC West race with the Seattle Seahawks via tiebreaker in a year where the San Francisco 49ers dealt with a ton of injuries across both sides of the ball. L.A. is looking for its second straight NFC West crown, the Seahawks are aiming to take another step forward after a busy offseason saw them sign Sam Darnold to be quarterback, the 49ers are hoping to show last year was a fluke due to injuries and the Arizona Cardinals doubled their 2023 win total to eight games in 2024 and will look to be a playoff contender in 2025. For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog.
49ers not a good bet to win the division
The 49ers were a six-win, last-place team in 2024. While Christian McCaffrey barely playing definitely hurt the team, the 49ers were still a decent running team. They fell from third in 2023 to 12th in 2024 with just 0.1 fewer yards per carry. McCaffrey is 29 and there is no guarantee he can stay healthy all season.
| OUTCOME | SAN FRANCISCO | LA RAMS | SEATTLE | ARIZONA |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +160, 38.5% | 38.9% | +100, 50% | 50.4% | -230, 69.7% | 63.1% | -145, 59.2% | 67% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +250, 28.6% | 28.5% | +290, 25.6% | 26.6% | +430, 18.9% | 19.8% | +320, 23.8% | 19.6% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +370, 21.3% | 19.2% | +450, 18.2% | 14.4% | +850, 10.5% | 10.9% | +600, 14.3% | 9.1% |
| LOSE NFC CHAMP | +800, 11.1% | 8.2% | +900, 10% | 5.7% | +2100, 4.5% | 4.1% | +1400, 6.7% | 2.9% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +1700, 5.6% | 3.2% | +1900, 5% | 1.9% | +5000, 2% | 1.5% | +3200, 3% | 0.9% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +1900, 5% | 2% | +2000, 4.8% | 1% | +6000, 1.6% | 0.6% | +4100, 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Model Betting Value | ||||
That said, the 49ers still have the best chance to win the NFC West at 37%, but it’s not a good bet even at the best-priced +160 on bet365. This line implies 38.4% just over the 37% model projection. Bet on the 49ers at bet365 and get $150 in bonus bets:
Deebo Samuel’s value to the 49ers’ success has been glossed over by his decline in play in ’24. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have traded Deebo, but I am saying they aren’t a guarantee to return to past levels without his diverse skill-set and big-play ability playing alongside a healthy McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk, etc. There’s not a ton of value, but at 39% to miss the playoffs, there is a slight lean at the +165 being offered by Caesars. Bet on the 49ers at Caesars Sportsbook and get 10 100% profit boosts:
I am assuming Matthew Stafford, who has been hurt during training camp, will be able to develop a fast connection with Davante Adams. The combo of Adams and Nacua could be one of the three best WR duos in the league. The Rams just gave RB Kyren Williams the bag, so the offense will hopefully show more consistency than last season. They scored 44 points versus Buffalo but then just 12 in their next game against San Francisco. The Rams scored 12, 19 and 13 in a three-week span, followed by 25, 27 and 22 (versus Philadelphia in the playoffs). There is positive value for the Rams to exit at +290 in the wild card round.
But bet365 is offering an outlier price of +135 for the Rams to Miss the Playoffs, and that happens in 50% of simulations. I’ll take that bet. Check it out at bet365 now:
The sleeper team in this division is the Seahawks. Mike Macdonald is known for having an instant positive impact on a defense before taking it to an elite level in Year 2, even without big names. His Ravens defense led the league in sacks with Jadeveon Clowney playing for a couple million bucks and Kyle Van Noy signed “off his couch” during the season. Seattle’s defense allowed two fewer points per game in his first season than in 2023, and I think it could improve by another 1.5 to 2 points.
This is critical because Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Jaxson Smith-Njigba as WR1 can “afford” to be a little less effective than the trio of Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as WR2, and they could still be poised to win at least eight games. I could probably convince myself that the passing game may be more effective with Darnold and Kupp if Darnold can do 85% of what he did in Minnesota.
There’s value on the Seahawks to lose in the wild card round, but give me Seattle to win Over 7.5 games at -130 on FanDuel. They could be worse than last season, but not three games less. Bet on the Seahawks at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets:
Arizona is a very good home team. The Cardinals were 6-3 with a very impressive +8 point differential per game in Arizona. They outgained teams on the ground by +42 yards per game and allowed just 19.2 pts per game. Usually a team that can run the ball and play defense can win nine games, especially with a former No. 1 overall pick at QB and one of the highest-rated WR prospects ever.
But strangely, the Cardinals’ +42 rushing yards differential did not travel. On the road, the Cardinals were -9. They average +30 more passing yards per game on the road but at a much lower 6.7 yards per attempt (7.6 at home). The defense did more than anyone else in restoring Carolina’s faith in Bryce Young when he scored three TDs (two passing, one rushing) on his way to 36 points in Week 16.
My favorite bet for the Cardinals is probably Kyler Murray’s season rushing yards, but for the purposes of this article give me Arizona to miss the playoffs at -140 on DraftKings. This line implies 58.3%, the model has them at 67%. Bet on the Cardinals at DraftKings and get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket as well as $200 in bonus bets:
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