NFC dominating AFC in nearly unprecedented fashion: Will it hold up, and does it matter?

The year is 1970, and the NFL and AFL have merged into one league. The 10 AFL teams have come over to the NFL and, joined by the NFL’s Colts, Browns and Steelers, formed the 13-team AFC. The NFC is composed of the 13 previous NFL teams not named the Colts, Browns or Steelers. It’s a union several years in the making, one that paves the way for the NFL to become the behemoth it is today.

The NFC dominates the first year of play, going 27-12-1 in interconference games, good for a .692 winning percentage. And while an AFC team wins the Super Bowl, it’s the Colts, a former NFL team.

Fast-forward 55 years, and the NFC is 25-13 against the AFC this season, good for a .658 winning percentage. That would be the best by the conference since that aforementioned 1970 campaign. Week 7 was a good example:

The Broncos did manage a record-setting comeback to beat the Giants 33-32, but the NFC’s 3-1 interconference record was indicative of the season as a whole.

Here’s why the conferences are so imbalanced, why there’s a chance for things to change, and how it might impact things going forward.

Bottom falling out for AFC teams

There are bad teams in both conferences, but the league’s true bottom feeders are mostly found in the AFC. The 0-7 Jets are the only winless team in the NFL. The 1-6 Titans have already fired their coach. The 1-6 Dolphins might be on their way. The 1-5 Ravens have been the biggest and most shocking disappointment not just this year but in recent memory after entering the year as Super Bowl favorites. The 2-5 Browns and the 2-5 Raiders are rebuilding and have major quarterback questions.

If the season were to end today, the AFC would have six of the top seven draft slots, per Tankathon.

1. Jets (0-7)
2. Dolphins (1-6)
3. Saints (1-6)
4. Titans (1-6)
5. Ravens (1-5)
6. Browns (2-5)
7. Raiders (2-5)

Those six teams are a combined 2-10 against NFC teams.

Per the CBS Sports research deprtment, a conference has only had six of the top seven draft slots (before trades and other movement) once since the merger. The AFC did it last year, too. The bottom feeders are, mostly, still bottom feeding.

In addition to the Ravens, the AFC also houses two of the league’s other most disappointing teams in the 2-4 Texans and the 3-4 Bengals. And even the league’s most pleasant surprise, the 6-1 Colts, owe their one loss to an NFC team, the Rams.

Impact on playoff races

Fans of NFC teams will be frustrated to see this chart:

Yes, that’s the NFC with 12 teams at .500 or better, compared to just eight for the AFC. SportsLine still gives the 2-4 Texans a 34% chance to make the playoffs but gives the 4-3 Panthers a 9% chance, the 3-3-1 Cowboys a 28% chance, the 3-3 Falcons a 14% chance and the 3-3 Vikings a 17% chance.

A big part of that, of course, is that NFC teams play other NFC teams more often, creating tough finishes. Per Tankathon, nine of the 10 hardest remaining schedules belong to NFC teams.

It isn’t always this way

The pendulum of conference power tends to swing. That was true early on, and it’s true now. Remember that 1970 season? Well, the rest of the decade belonged almost exclusively to the AFC, led by the Steelers’ dynasty, the back-to-back champion Dolphins and the two-time champion Raiders. An AFC team won nine of the first 11 Super Bowls after the merger, and from 1972-1980, the AFC never had a losing record in interconference play.

The 1980s and much of the 1990s belonged to the NFC, with the conference at one point winning 13 straight Super Bowls thanks to powerhouses in San Francisco, Washington, Dallas and New York. Interconference play was closer to even, but the NFC hosted a lot of parades.

In the 2000s, the AFC re-emerged with Tom Brady’s Patriots, Peyton Manning’s Colts, Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers and others leading the way. Still, since 2000, interconference play has been basically even. It just feels like the NFC is so much stronger because it is so far this year and was last year, too.

Does conference strength determine a champion?

Here are the best single-season performances by one conference vs. the other.

Maybe — just maybe — being among the best teams in the better conference leads to Super Bowl titles. That could be good news for the Packers, 49ers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Lions and Seahawks. But there’s one final factor to consider.

It’s still early

Yes, the NFC looks better and deeper than the AFC right now. It’s also still early. Things could turn around as early as this week. There are eight interconference games in Week 8, and the AFC team is favored in six of them. One good week for the AFC will make a big dent in on the NFC’s early season record and take it from historically excellent to merely good.

Even if it doesn’t happen this week, zooming out provides reason for AFC improvement. One would expect the Ravens to improve with a healthy Lamar Jackson. The Bengals suddenly look viable with Joe Flacco at quarterback. The Chiefs look back to their normal selves. Take a deep breath. It’s still early, and while the AFC may not have the dominant upper tier we expected entering the year, those preseason favorites can get rolling in a hurry.