NCAA Tournament Bracketology: UConn, Florida battle for final No. 1 seed

With Duke, Michigan and Arizona all but locked in as No. 1 seeds for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, the final spot atop the bracket has become a two-team race.

UConn currently holds the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology, but defending champion Florida is closing fast.

At fourth all in three results-based metrics incorporated by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, the Huskies (27-3, 17-2 Big East) have a resume edge for now. But the Gators (24-6, 16-2 SEC) own an 11-7 advantage in Quad 1 victories, and that lead could grow before Selection Sunday.

Florida plays at Kentucky on Saturday, which is a high-end Quad 1 game, while UConn closes the regular season with a Quad 2 game at Marquette. The SEC Tournament also projects as a more likely breeding ground for Quad 1 opportunities than the Big East Tournament, which could mean the Gators have even more time to make up ground next week.

UConn may hold a trump card in the form of its Dec. 9 win over the Gators on a neutral floor, but there are never any guarantees the selection committee will use head-to-head as a determining factor in seeding decisions. A year ago, Auburn suffered head-to-head defeats against both Duke and Florida — and had more losses than both on Selection Sunday — but earned the No. 1 overall seed ahead of the Blue Devils and Gators anyway.

As we head into Friday’s action and the weekend at-large, here’s the breakdown of how the top seeds look in CBS Sports Bracketology.

Bracketology top seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Eyes on Friday night’s Big East battle

No. 18 St. John’s vs. Seton Hall carries big implications for both. St. John’s can secure at least a share of the conference’s regular season crown with a win. A loss would open the door for UConn to claim the outright league crown with a Saturday victory at Marquette. Additionally, St. John’s will be at risk of slipping to a No. 6 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology with a loss. 

The Pirates enter among the “First Four Out” in the CBS Sports Bracketology model. A win might not result in an immediate jump to the “Last Four In,” but it would make at-large consideration far more viable for a Seton Hall team that hasn’t defeated another projected at-large team since November. Seton Hall came up just short at UConn last Saturday, and that loss eliminated all margin for error. It’s do or die for the Pirates and their at-large ambitions.

Explaining how committee considers rematches

Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major schools, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces challenges in attempting to avoid regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket featured three potential second-round games between conference teams, although none came to fruition. 

The committee will still seek to minimize conference meetings and nonconference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles permit games between conference teams in the second round, so long as the teams played each other just once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that met twice prior to the NCAA Tournament, principles state they should not meet prior to the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, NCAA bracketing principles state they should not play before the Elite Eight.

Concerning rematches of nonconference games, NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the First Four and first round.” The committee will also “attempt to avoid” nonconference rematches in the second round. But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams on their natural seed line over changing their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.