Being a franchise player can be tricky business — for the player and the NBA franchise. Finding the proper match where the union is solid and neither side has a wandering eye can be complicated. Ahead of his 11th season, Nikola Jokić recently said “my plan is to be a Nugget forever.” That represents the best-case scenario in a fickle business — two sides that can’t imagine being without each other.
Somewhat less ideal is what unfolded during Bucks media day, when managing governor Wes Edens said he had a conversation with Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason in which his franchise player expressed his commitment to Milwaukee. When asked about it shortly thereafter Giannis replied “I cannot recall that meeting.” Ouch.
When it comes to franchise players, it’s not just about the player’s talent but also the fit with his team. Less than a year ago everyone figured Luka Dončić would be a Forever Maverick and one day get a statue outside American Airlines Center in Dallas just like Dirk Nowitzki before him. Now Luka plays for the Lakers.
The Franchise Player Tiers that follow try to keep all that in mind: How good is the player and what kind of situation is he in for the short and long-term? And in some cases, as we go lower down the list, are the players in question actually franchise-level talents or do their teams just want to squint at them hard enough to convince themselves?
Tier 1: Envy of the League
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)
- Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers)
- Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
No surprises here. Each of these guys finished in the top five of our Top 100 list heading into this season.
Jokic has won three of the last five MVPs — and likely could have had more if not for voter fatigue — and remains one of the betting favorites along with SGA to reclaim that particular piece of hardware. He bootstrapped a not-nearly-as-deep Nuggets team into forcing Game 7 in the second round of the playoffs against the eventual champion Thunder. And in the annual general manager survey conducted by NBA.com, Joker — who is listed by the league at 6-foot-11, 284 pounds — was also the overwhelming choice as the NBA’s best passer and highest basketball IQ. Because he does stuff like this:
SGA is coming off a banner season where he delivered Oklahoma City’s first championship parade. In the process he became just the fourth player in NBA history to lead the league in scoring while winning MVP and Finals MVP, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabar, Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal. Then he signed a monster four-year, $285 million extension in July. Who’s doing it better than that guy? (Rhetorical.)
Luka made five straight first-team All-NBA selections before that run was temporarily halted last season due to nagging injuries that kept him below the 65-game threshold required to qualify. He was also the center of the most shocking trade in recent memory (or ever) when he was shipped to the Lakers in a deal that will haunt Mavs fans — and by extension Dallas GM Nico Harrison — forever. Dončić is still only 26, and now we’ll see what kind of havoc he unleashes on the league with his new slimmed-down revenge body.
Wembanyama was already tall, but apparently he grew again? The Spurs are now listing him at 7-foot-5. Feels like that shouldn’t be allowed, especially given his already outsized skillset. Last season, he became just the second player in NBA history to record a line of 25+ points, 5+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ steals and 5+ blocks in multiple games. The other guy is Hakeem Olajuwon. That’s good company. Unfortunately for Wembanyama, his second season was cut short when he was shut down after just 46 games due to deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. Despite that, he still led the league with 176 blocks — which was 28 more than Brook Lopez, who finished second in that category and played 80 games, and 63 more than Evan Mobley, who won Defensive Player of the Year. Wembanyama is only 21. This is a superhero origin story where he’s still learning what his abilities are. The rest of the league is in so much trouble when he figures out how to fully use his powers.
NBA Top 100 players, ranked: How Nikola Jokić, SGA, Luka Dončić and more stack up as new season begins
Sam Quinn
Tier 2: How Much Longer Will it Last?
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
- Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
If it was only about talent, Giannis would be safely ensconced in Tier 1, and he and the Bucks would be happily married forever. Alas, there are other factors here, namely how long he will remain in Milwaukee. When determining franchise players, it helps to know which franchise he might be employed by — not just right now but moving forward. Antetokounmpo recently said that he’s “locked into” the Bucks for this season but reserves the right to change his mind in “six, seven months.”
That not-so-muffled scream you hear is coming from Bucks fans who will have to deal with this topic for the foreseeable future. The Bucks decided to waive-and-stretch Damian Lillard this offseason, a short-term patch that allowed them to poach Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers in a desperate attempt to stay relevant and appease Giannis. (Elsewhere on the desperation and appeasement front: The Bucks signed two of Giannis’s brothers, Thanasis and Alex. We’re maybe one more probing Knicks call from distant cousins and aunties getting on Milwaukee’s payroll.)
Stretching Lillard will cost the Bucks $22.5 million per season over the next five years, severely hampering their team building options. Giannis has already said he wants to win another championship. He’ll be 31 in December. Even in a weakened Eastern Conference, can the Bucks realistically offer him that opportunity anytime soon? Put another way, who’s the third best player on that team after Giannis and Turner? Is it Bobby Portis? Kyle Kuzma? AJ Green? Whatever the answer, it’s not great. There’s a reason why the Knicks reportedly looked into acquiring Giannis this offseason. There are 29 other teams watching this with great interest and waiting for him to ask out so they can potentially pounce.
As for Steph, the greatest shooter of all time isn’t going anywhere, and the Warriors have high hopes for a full season of him paired with Jimmy Butler, longtime running mate Draymond Green and new center Al Horford. Unfortunately, time comes for all of us. This will be Curry’s 17th season, and he turns 38 in March.
There’s an argument to be made that how much time he has left should outweigh time already served, that younger players with their whole careers ahead of them (like the guys in Tier 5) should be higher than someone who has most of his in the rearview. You could certainly make that argument — but I won’t. What he has behind him is a whole lot more than most players will ever muster, and that counts for quite a bit. And oh yeah, he still made second-team All-NBA last year. He’s not done yet.
Tier 3: Ready For Superstar Leap
- Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves)
- Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons)
If you want to graduate either of these guys into the elite Tier 1 right now without further delay, I won’t fight you.
Ant previously said he doesn’t want to be the face of the league, but since he’s become the face of the Wolves he’s helped pick up a franchise that was down bad for a while. The man took the Wolves to back-to-back Western Conference finals, has played more than 72 games in each of his first five seasons, and is generally a delight whether he’s throwing down monster dunks, leading the league in 3-pointers made as he did a year ago, or entertaining us (well maybe not Lakers fans) with a little postseason walk-and-trash talk.
Cade Cunningham made his first All-NBA selection last season. In the process, he took the Pistons from the worst team in the league two seasons ago when they won just 14 games to a 44-win team that claimed the six seed in the Eastern Conference, making Detroit the first team in NBA history to triple its win total year over year.
The last seven MVPs have all been foreign-born players. The last time someone from the states took home the hardware was James Harden back in 2018. If you were betting on the next American to win the award, look no further than one of these two.
Tier 4: Solid Footing
- Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks)
- Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers)
- Paolo Banchero (Orlando Magic)
Maybe this group doesn’t have the same Q rating as the players ahead of them but their teams are in good shape with them leading the way. Jalen Brunson finished in the top five of the MVP voting two seasons ago, has made two straight All-NBA teams, and helped the Knicks reach the Eastern Conference finals for the first time in 25 years. Donovan Mitchell finished fifth in MVP voting last season, made first team All-NBA and was a key reason why the Cavaliers had their best season (non-LeBron division) in recent memory. And Paolo Banchero got a five-year $239 million max extension and has a lot of people — hi, it’s me, I am “a lot of people” in this context — eyeing the Magic as a make-the-leap team this season.
Tier 5: Injury Gap Year
- Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)
- Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers)
Oof. Both suffered Achilles tears during the postseason, impacting not just the playoffs but the offseason approach for both organizations. The Celtics moved on from Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet among others in order to avoid paying around half a billion dollars (!) for a roster that likely won’t have Tatum this season — even though he recently posted a video of himself dunking mere months removed from his surgery.
Haliburton had a spectacular postseason run and looked great to start Game 7 against the Thunder in the Finals before suffering the injury that everyone feared. That gave the typically financially conservative Pacers the cover they needed to let Myles Turner walk this offseason with the evident thought process being something approaching “why pay more for a team that can’t win anything significant until Haliburton is back when you can just go get Jay Huff?” I like Jay Huff by the way. Hi Jay if you’re reading this (and even if you’re not). Even so, that is a tough turn of events for Pacers fans.
Tier 6: Big Bright Future
- Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks)
- Amen Thompson & Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets)
The Mavericks had a 1.8% chance to land the top pick in the draft and one of the most-hyped prospects of the last two decades. Losing Luka was a blow Mavs fans might never recover from, but pulling a hyper-talented multi-positional rabbit out of the super-long-odds lottery hat is not too bad as consolation prizes go. Flagg can impact the game at both ends of the floor, and with Kyrie Irving still recovering from an ACL injury, we might get a healthy dose of Point Cooper early on this season to supplement D’Angelo Russell.
The Rockets are the only team in this exercise with two players listed (other than the Heat, but that’s a different situation). This is sort of a choose-your-own adventure situation where there are no wrong answers on which one could become the face of the franchise. Sengun came in six spots higher in our Top 100 and made the All-Star team last season, while Thompson was selected as the most athletic player, the most versatile defender, and the most likely to have a breakout season in the NBA.com GM survey. For my money, I’m going with Thompson. I mean, just look at this.
There’s a reason why everyone from LeBron James to Steve Kerr to De’Aaron Fox has openly gushed about Thompson’s athleticism.
Tier 7: OK…but Where Do They Actually Get You?
- Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns)
- Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles Clippers)
This is the tier where questions start popping up and you wonder if the franchise player can provide the proper answers. Booker signed a two-year $145 million extension this offseason that the Suns rushed to give him even though they could (and should) have waited. Owner Mat Ishbia has called him the franchise player, indicated multiple times he’s not going anywhere, and also said that he and Booker are “aligned” on the Suns future. The Suns won 36 games a season ago and missed the playoffs when Kevin Durant was in uniform alongside Booker. KD now plays in Houston. Color me skeptical that it will go better for Booker and the Suns in a loaded Western Conference when he’s now paired with another high-usage, high-volume (and far more inefficient) shooter in Jalen Green.
Since Kawhi left Toronto for L.A., the Clippers have gotten out of the second round once and have been a first-round exit in each of the last three postseasons. Part of struggle has been his injury history, but he was healthy for last year’s playoffs and the Clips still got bounced in seven games by the Nuggets. Then there’s the investigation into questions about an alleged no-show endorsement deal hovering over him and the team that don’t figure to go anywhere anytime soon. The Clippers are deep and talented — but even with Kawhi, they’re still the Clippers.
Tier 8: [Insert Name] is Unavailable, Please Leave a Message
- Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers)
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans)
- Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies)
This tier is the Island of Misfit Toys and Broken Dreams. Joel Embiid is a former MVP who has missed close to half the games in his career due to a variety of injuries and has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs. Zion Williamson has played 30 or fewer games in four of his six NBA seasons, including last year. Ja Morant has never played more than 67 games in a single season, and appeared in a total of 59 games over the last two seasons combined. And unlike Embiid and Williamson, I’m not convinced that Morant — who, it should be stipulated, is as athletic and enjoyable to watch as anyone in the NBA when healthy — is even the best player on his own team when that team also employs two-way star Jaren Jackson Jr.
Tier 9: The Leftovers
- Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks)
- Tyler Herro/Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat)
- Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors)
- LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets)
- Josh Giddey (Chicago Bulls)
What are we even doing here? This is the hang your head in your hands tier.
Trae Young is still waiting and hoping for the Hawks to offer him the four-year $229 million extension he’s eligible to sign. If you’re made to wait and wonder about that kind of thing, it’s generally a sign that you’re not really the franchise player. (Related: put me down for Jalen Johnson actually being the best player on the Hawks.) Same goes for Josh Giddey, who had to haggle with the Bulls over his latest deal during restricted free agency before landing on an average annual value of $25 million over four years. Good work if you can get it, but not truly a franchise player.
After Miami bundled Jimmy Butler off to the Bay, it felt like the leading man role was being transferred to Tyler Herro by default, but if you prefer Bam Adebayo as the star avatar here that’s fine. Either way, the Heat got dusted in a four-game sweep by the Cavs last postseason. Not a great result for whoever wants to own that. Adebayo shot just 43.8% from the field in that series and was minus-73 over four games. Herro was even worse. He hit just 41.5% of his shots and was minus-87. Yikes all the way around.
The Raptors would love for Scottie Barnes to make them a thing. So far, he hasn’t and they’re not. Even in a weak Eastern Conference, is Barnes good enough to make them anything more than a back-end playoff team? I’m skeptical.
And LaMelo Ball — the living embodiment of the classic no-no-yes chaos agent with the mayhem dials cranked up as far as they will possibly go — came in at No. 53 in our Top 100. Do not blame me for that. I was the lowest on him of all our voters at No. 76. I still think I might have had him too high. He tossed up a YOLO catch-and-shoot fadeaway 3 the other day that made exactly no sense to anyone in the building except him; it was preseason, but the man is already in midseason form.
Tier 10: Still Searching
- Brooklyn Nets
- Washington Wizards
- Sacramento Kings
- Utah Jazz
- Portland Trail Blazers
You will notice that the Nets, Wizards, Kings, Jazz and Blazers have no one listed here. Some of them are better positioned than others going forward. The Blazers have good pieces, if not anyone who fits into a franchise or even star context. And I wouldn’t bet against the Jazz figuring things out over the long haul when they have not one but two Ainges in charge. Even so, all of them should consider some sort of blood sacrifice to curry favor with the Basketball Gods, or at the very least burn some sage.
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