The 2025-26 NBA season is officially at hand, and it’s missing a key character. For the first time since the 2018-19 season, LeBron James is absent from the festivities. This is the first season opener he’s ever missed, and his Lakers have been a fixture on opening night ever since their 2019 acquisition of Anthony Davis. He’s not the only significant name we won’t see on Tuesday. Obviously, the Houston Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet as he’ll likely miss the season recovering from a torn ACL, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are missing key forward Jalen Williams. The season hasn’t even begun and we’re already missing several important players.
Alas, we soldier on without them, as their teams now must. The Rockets, Thunder, Lakers and Warriors will tip off the 2025-26 season on Tuesday, even if they have to do so at least at full strength. So, with the season set to tip off, let’s pick some best bets for Tuesday’s slate with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
We’re kicking off the season with last year’s No. 1 and No. 5 ranked defenses, so there’s going to be a temptation to lean under here. That’s especially true with Houston starting a jumbo lineup with Kevin Durant at shooting guard, and the inevitable emotions of ring night pouring over into the game. Keep in mind, though, these teams played five games last season. The lowest-scoring of them came in at 207. The other four came in at 233, 235, 236 and 265. For whatever reason, these defenses can stop everyone but one another. The absence of Williams will be felt fairly acutely for the Thunder defensively, as he was the obvious Durant matchup. They have a ton of other viable perimeter defenders, but their one weakness is height. That’s a problem against one of the tallest wing scorers in league history, and both teams will generate easy points off turnovers, which tend to be plentiful early in seasons when offenses are sloppier. The Pick: Over 227.5.
I’ll admit I’m tempted to pick Houston to cover the seven-point spread. The Rockets beat the Thunder twice last season and it’s opening night — we want drama. But I just can’t get over the danger of starting Amen Thompson as a point guard in his first game without Fred VanVleet around as a security blanket against this, specific Thunder team. I have all the faith in the world in Thompson eventually being a point guard-level handler and creator. It should even happen this season. But right away, against the best turnover-generating defense ever on the road with a raucous Oklahoma City crowd? I just think that’s the difference here. Thompson will get there. I don’t think he’s quite ready for the role he’ll have to play right away. The Pick: Thunder -7
It wouldn’t be a Rockets game without a rebounding prop. I’m operating under the assumption that Alperen Sengun, for offense’s sake, with Houston playing this jumbo lineup, just isn’t going to be able to leave the floor much. Steven Adams and Clint Capela will come and go, but the Rockets are playing big, which probably means their shooting is going to be suboptimal. This is the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, and I’m expecting them to reaffirm that on opening night. The Pick: Alperen Sengun Over 8.5 Rebounds
An opening night home underdog that has the best player in the game? Yes please. Luka Dončić has had a reasonably successful regular-season record against the Warriors at 14-8. Their defense, imposing as it is against the right opponents, struggles most with heliocentric offensive stars because they lack a single, elite perimeter defender. If you’re a Deandre Ayton optimist, you’d figure that this would be a game for him. He has meaningful size and athletic advantages over Golden State’s older, smaller front court of Al Horford and Draymond Green. Ironically, missing LeBron may not be the worst thing for the Lakers in this one. He’s 1-6 in season openers as a Laker. The Pick: Lakers +2
Well, if you expect a big Dončić game, you almost have to pick the over. Even if a big Dončić game is a relatively slow one, the Lakers have a long way to go defensively, and the Warriors are exactly the sort of team you don’t want to play on opening night in that regard because of how crisp their passing and movement are. Stopping them means having good habits and communication, which the Lakers likely don’t yet have with all of their new faces. The Pick: Over 225.5
I’m not overthinking the props here. This is skinny Luka against a defense without a perimeter stopper. He’s going to have the ball basically all night with James out. I can’t promise the most efficient game out of Dončić, but I have to imagine he brute forces his way to 31 points. The Pick: Dončić Over 30.5 Points
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