MLB trends: One Ronald Acuña Jr. stat that’s dipped, unwanted record could fall and what’s up with the balls?

The halfway mark of the 2025 MLB season is fast approaching. Every team will play their 81st game within the next two weeks, then before you know it, the All-Star break and trade deadline will be here. The postseason races will heat up not too long after that. The season continue apace. Here now are three trends worth keeping an eye on as we get into the dog days of summer.

Acuña understandably apprehensive on the bases

Since returning from his second ACL tear last month, Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. has looked like the player who won National League MVP in 2023, at least at the plate. Acuña takes a .392/.495/.696 line and seven home runs into Wednesday’s game with the Mets. The Braves were only 8-14 in 22 games with Acuña in the lineup, but that’s not his fault. The team is failing in spite of him, not because of him.

Acuña has been himself at the plate. On the bases though, he has been much less aggressive than the player who stole 73 bases in 2023, and that’s understandable, right? Acuña’s coming back from his second torn ACL and it hasn’t even been a month since he returned from the injured list. I would have been surprised if Acuña wasn’t taking it easy on the bases so soon after a major knee injury.

Last Friday against the Rockies, Acuña didn’t just steal his first base of the season. He attempted to steal his first base of the season. He played 18 games before giving it a try. Furthermore, Acuña is not taking the extra base as often this year, meaning going first-to-third on a single, first-to-home on a double, etc. Here are the numbers going into Tuesday’s game:

Stolen-base attempt rate is stolen bases plus caught stealings per stolen-base opportunity (being on first or second with the next base unoccupied). The pitch clock, limit on pitcher disengagements, and larger bases were introduced in 2023. Steal attempts shot up league-wide that season, which surely contributed somewhat to Acuña’s spike that year.

Sprint speed is essentially the player’s top speed. It’s his fastest one-second window. Acuña’s sprint speed decline over the years is completely normal. Players slow down as they age, even super athletic 27 year olds like Acuña. Speed tends to peak very early. We can see that Acuña is more or less as fast as he was before last year’s ACL tear. He’s just using his speed less on the bases.

I suspect Acuña will run the bases more aggressively as he gets further away from knee surgery, and that could mean not until next season. I don’t think he’ll ever steal 73 bases again though. After the two ACL tears, Acuña may settle in as, say, a 20-steal and 48% extra-base taken rate guy. Cutting back on baserunning value in order to stay on the field is worth it for Acuña and the Braves.

Caminero’s double play problem

A record could fall this season, and it’s not a good one. Entering play Tuesday, Rays slugger Junior Caminero has grounded into an astounding 19 double plays, five more than any other player. Only six other players have grounded into even 10 double plays this season. From 2021-24, the MLB leader averaged 27 double plays. Caminero could get there by the end of July.

The record is 36 double plays by Hall of Famer Jim Rice in 1984. Only 19 times has a player grounded into 30 double plays in a single season. Caminero has a real chance to join that group this year. He ranks fifth with 73 double play opportunities this year (runner on first with less than two outs) and first in double play rate by a mile. Here’s the leaderboard (min. 40 opportunities):

1. Junior Caminero, Rays: 26.0%
2. Alec Bohm, Phillies: 20.8%
3. J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: 20.8%
4. Michael Conforto, Dodgers: 20.0%
5. Adam Frazier, Pirates: 20.0%

The MLB average is a 9.6% double play rate, so Caminero is nearly triple that. Banging into a double play more than once out of every four opportunities is rough. Caminero is a Grade-A double play candidate because he’s not particularly speedy and he hits the ball extremely hard, giving infielders that much extra time to make the turn when the ball is hit right at them.

At its core though, Caminero’s double play problem is really a ground ball problem. He took a 47.7% ground ball rate into Tuesday’s game, well above the 42.1% league average and far too high for a player who hits the ball as hard as Caminero. His average exit velocity (91.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.5%) are among the best in baseball. Caminero needs to get the ball airborne.

The good news is Caminero, who will turn only 22 next month, has begun to do exactly that. His ground ball rate, which sat above 50% the first two months of the season, has been under 40% the last few weeks. A good trend for Mr. Caminero and the Rays, this is:

As the ground ball rate has come down, the production has gone up. Caminero hit .242/.271/.424 with six home runs in his first 34 games. He’s at .258/.317/.583 with 11 home runs in his last 34 games. The double plays are still there (10 in his first 34 games and nine in his last 34 games), but you can live with the occasional twin-killing when it comes with a near .600 slugging percentage.

Double plays will likely always be a part of Caminero’s game, but learning to elevate is simply a young player taking the next step in his development. Caminero entered last season as the second-best prospect in baseball. He’s extremely talented, but it’s a hard game, and it can take even the most talented young players time to find their footing at the highest level.

Now that Caminero is getting the ball in the air more often, the home runs and overall production is coming. It’s elite hard-hit ability, especially for his age. That helps to some extent on ground balls, for sure, but grounders don’t go for extra bases often and they never go over the fence. Caminero might set the double play record this year. He also might hit 30 homers as a 21-22 year old.

No dip in offense despite deadened baseball

Once again, something is up with the baseballs this year, only this time MLB acknowledged it rather than acting cagey. Last week an MLB spokesperson confirmed to The Athletic that drag on the baseball is up this year, and more drag means the ball does not fly as far. Drag data dating back to 2016 is publicly available at Baseball Savant, and this year’s numbers are the highest they’ve been since 2016.

“For the last several seasons, MLB has made drag information available to the public online, which is updated daily during the season,” MLB spokesperson Glen Caplin told The Athletic. “We are aware of an increase in average drag this season and have provided information to the Major League Baseball Players Association on this issue as our experts continue to study any potential causes beyond normal variability in a product made by hand with natural materials. There has been no change to the manufacturing, storage or handling of baseballs this year, and all baseballs remain within specifications.”

One theory is the seams are slightly higher or wider this year — but still within league specifications — which is creating more drag on the ball. We’re not here to discuss the how or the why though, just the fact that the ball is not carrying as well this season, which has led to an awful lot of balls that look gone off the bat, only to be caught on the warning track or even in front of it.

Here is the average distance on “barrels,” which are batted balls with the best combination of exit velocity and launch angle. Barrels are the best possible contact, basically:

Barrels are traveling four fewer feet than last year, on average, and seven fewer feet than 2023. To be fair, it is only mid-June, and these numbers should go up once we get into July and August, the hottest summer months. The ball is definitely not flying as well as it has the last few years though. Even the best possible contact (barrels) is not traveling as far as it usually does.

And the thing is, offense has not suffered much, if at all. The league is hitting .245 this year. It was .243 last year. The league is slugging .396 this year. It was .399 last year. Runs per game (4.39 to 4.30) and home runs per game (1.12 to 1.08) are down slightly and that can be attributed to the fact it is not yet July and August, the most homer-happy months of the summer each year.

Every baseball is handmade by Rawlings, which is owned by MLB, and even small changes to the ball can alter the way it behaves significantly. Losing four feet off barrels is a massive change on a league-wide scale. You’re not crazy. The ball is not carrying as well as it did last year. At the same time, there has not been a significant decline in offense. It’s right around where it was in 2024.