MLB trends: Fernando Tatis Jr. finds new strength while Royals, Phillies face clear weaknesses

The 2025 MLB regular season is just about four weeks old and things are beginning to look more normal, for lack of a better term. Only one qualified hitter is batting .400, only a handful of starters have a sub-1.00 ERA, and no team with one of the league’s worst run differentials has a winning record. We’re starting to get into the flow of the season now.

With that in mind, here now are three early season trends to keep an eye on as we approach the end of April, and really get into the thick of the regular season.

Tatis leveling up in Year 6

It can be easy to forget that Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. is only 26. He has a January birthday, so he’ll play the entire 2025 season at age 26, too. He’s a young 26. Despite that, Tatis entered this season with more than 500 career games and having received MVP votes in three different seasons. Tatis is one of only 24 players this century with 20 WAR through their age-25 season.

Early on this season, we’ve seen the best ever version of Tatis. He was named the National League’s Player of the Week last week and took a .349/.424/.663 slash line into Tuesday’s games with the Tigers. Add in superlative right field defense, and Tatis is second among all players with 1.9 WAR, essentially a rounding error behind Aaron Judge (2.0 WAR). He’s been the NL’s best player this month.

More exciting than the slash line is what’s going on under the hood. His strikeout and swinging strike rates have improved for the third straight season and now are much better than the league average. Tatis is chasing out of the zone less without sacrificing any of his in-zone aggressiveness. He’s making more contact against breaking balls. The arrows are all pointing up.

Part of this is experience and maturation as a hitter. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that Tatis’ father, Fernando Sr., implored him this offseason to do more homework and study pitchers rather than simply use his athletic gifts to react in the box. Better preparation has helped Tatis hunt certain pitches and just have a better, more finely tuned plan at the plate. That always helps.

Furthermore, Tatis has opened up his stance a bit, and replaced his leg kick with a toe tap. Here are the before and after GIFs:

The more open stance gives Tatis a better look at the ball, and leg kicks/toe taps are all about timing. The leg kick worked fine for Tatis — he’s been an All-Star caliber player throughout his career — but the toe tap seems to have unlocked more contact against breaking balls, and more contact in general. For some hitters, the toe tap gives them much more margin of error.

Tatis has a PED suspension in his not-too-distant past, so it’s fair to question the validity of his results. He brought that on himself. At the same time, he is an absolute freak athlete, and his baseball skills are obvious. Tatis is one of the most gifted players in the sport and this year he’s raised his game to another level. More contact, more discipline, more results. He’s better than ever.

Kansas City’s dreadful outfield

Last year, the Royals authored one of the greatest turnarounds in MLB history, going from a franchise-record 106 losses in 2023 to 86 wins and a postseason berth in 2024. They did that largely thanks to the great Bobby Witt Jr. and a standout rotation. Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Michael Wacha started 126 of the team’s 162 games and had a combined 3.29 ERA. 

The rotation has remained strong this season, and Witt is still incredible, though the Royals took a 9-14 record into Tuesday’s series opener with the Rockies. They’ve lost eight of their last 10 games and, going into Tuesday, they had not scored more than four runs in a game since April 4. That’s 16 straight games scoring four runs or fewer. It’s really hard to win with that little offense.

There are underperformers up and down the roster (Jonathan India, Michael Massey, even Salvador Perez). The biggest culprit for Kansas City’s offensive futility is not one player. It’s the entire outfield. The numbers going into Tuesday’s game are shockingly bad:

If not for the Athletics being one stinkin’ point worse in on-base percentage, the Royals would be dead last across the board. Kansas City has the least productive outfield in baseball and not by a small margin either. The Braves rank 29th with minus-0.9 WAR from their outfielders, so we’re talking about a half-win difference. That’s significant with this few games played.

It would be easy to chalk this up to early season small sample size noise if it weren’t a continuation of last season. Last year, Royals outfielders hit .223/.281/.367 (81 OPS+) and were collectively worth 0.8 WAR. Bottom-five marks in the league across the board. That they won 86 games and went to the postseason despite that outfield production is remarkable, really.

The outfield was a clear need over the winter and the Royals took only small bites. India, a career second baseman, has played some outfield this year, but has mostly manned third. Mark Canha came off the injured list this past weekend. Cavan Biggio has played some outfield. Otherwise it’s the same group as last year: Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, etc.

Kansas City has begun cycling through internal outfield options. Drew Waters was called up when Canha was placed on the injured list and will remain with the Royals now that Melendez, who is 4 for 47 (.085) with 20 strikeouts, was demoted to Triple-A over the weekend. Tyler Gentry, Nelson Velázquez, and Joey Wiemer loom as call-up options, though all have struggled in Omaha.

Upgrading the outfield was the single biggest priority in the offseason. It didn’t happen. Now Royals GM J.J. Picollo will have to find a way to do it during the season, which isn’t easy. The good news is the bar is the floor. Adding a league-average outfielder would be a major upgrade. Kansas City’s outfield was among the worst in baseball in 2024. Somehow it’s been even worse in 2025.

The Phillies are making things hard on themselves

Like many teams four weeks into a new season, the Phillies are still trying to settle into a groove and put together an extended run of success. The bullpen has been a sore spot early on and roommates Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh have been total zeroes at the plate. It is way, way too early to panic. The Phillies do have some things to figure out though.

Another thing the Phillies must figure out is how to retire the No. 9 hitter. The Phillies have been so bad against No. 9 hitters! Look at the numbers entering Tuesday’s game with the Mets:

Philadelphia has allowed the highest batting average (by 26 points) and on-base percentage (by 35 points) to opposing No. 9 hitters and it’s not close. On the other end of the spectrum are the AL Central-leading Tigers, who’ve allowed an MLB-best .151/.225/.151 line to opposing No. 9 hitters. That is taking care of business at the bottom of the lineup.

The No. 9 hitter is not a sure out. That guy is still a major leaguer who can do damage if you make a mistake. That said, you’re making life so much harder of on yourself if you’re not getting those easier outs. Putting the No. 9 hitter on means a baserunner for the top of the lineup, where teams stack their best hitters. Allowing a .405 on-base percentage to No. 9 hitters is playing on Hard Mode.

At this point in the season, I will chalk this up to small sample size and not some flaw in the Phillies’ approach. It’s a veteran pitching staff with a veteran catcher. They know they need to be better against the No. 9 hitter. They just haven’t done it yet. The Phillies have to figure out their bullpen, get Bohm and Marsh going, and also stop letting the No. 9 hitter hit like an All-Star.