Major League Baseball’s trade deadline, slated for July 31, is now exactly a week away. The rumor mill is in full operation, and we here at CBS Sports have spent the month previewing the trade market from every angle.
Teams have yet to begin swapping players, however, and that can only mean one thing: this is the opportune time to ask (and attempt to answer) some of the biggest questions we have about the deadline.
Let’s get to it.
The Diamondbacks are the team of intrigue this deadline. They’ve remained reasonably close to a playoff spot (5 ½ games entering Thursday) despite losing one key player after another to injury. Ace Corbin Burnes, catcher Gabriel Moreno, and reliever Justin Martinez are just three of 14 Diamondbacks currently on the shelf.
Under normal circumstances, the Diamondbacks might be an obvious buyer — after all, the best way to overcome an injured star is to acquire a suitable replacement. Complicating Arizona’s outlook is the fact that a chunk of the roster is nearing free agency, including righties Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen and corner infielders Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor.
These days, front offices pride themselves on their probabilistic thinking and their commitment to the long-term outlook. It’s no longer enough to be close to a playoff spot; you have to have a reasonable hope of claiming it as your own. That’s where things start to fall apart for these D-backs, who possess just a 15.6% chance at making it to October, according to SportsLine.
As such, the Diamondbacks will probably sell — and, should that come to pass, they have a chance to dominate the market in a way that could enable them to reload in a hurry.
2. Where’s the offense?
If you’ve consumed much of our preview content, you’ve probably noticed that some of the same names keep popping up with every contender: be it Suárez and Naylor, Ryan McMahon, or a few others. That’s not a coincidence.
In talking with front-office sources as of late, it’s become clear that this isn’t a great market to find offensive help. Rather, teams are having to get creative with who they pursue, and let’s just say that some of the names on their radars would not impress.
That dynamic could make for a less-than-thrilling deadline. Alternatively, it could compel some bubble team to switch gears and attempt to leverage that bat shortage. More on that in a few paragraphs.
3. Can Pirates get this right?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are another team worth paying attention to over the next week. From this vantage point, this could be a pivotal stretch.
Pittsburgh has a number of players who appeal to contenders, including (but not limited to) starter Mitch Keller, reliever David Bednar, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, and outfielder Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates also have an impressive amount of young starting pitching and an obvious need to add offense so that they can maximize their competitiveness during the remainder of ace Paul Skenes’ team control years.
Just how the Pirates play out the deadline is to be seen. But there is a real opportunity here for them to improve their short- and long-term outlooks if they can make the most of this moment.
4. Will Alcantara move?
Coming into the season, no player seemed likelier to be traded than Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara. (Marlins head exec Peter Bendix was asked about that possibility way back in March.) Now? It looks less certain.
Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery has seen him compile a 6.66 ERA (65 ERA+) and a 1.97 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 20 starts. He’s struggled with the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball and his ability to combat left-handed batters, making it an open question as to whether or not he can be counted on to provide quality innings down the stretch.
The Marlins could have their own reasons for not rushing into an Alcantara trade. He’s under contract through at least next season (there’s a $21 million club option for 2027), meaning Miami doesn’t have to move him unless it’s confident that it isn’t simply selling low on its longtime ace.
The Marlins, by the way, figure to have an active week on other fronts, too. They’re closer to a playoff spot than anyone would have reasonably expected, but it’s more likely than not that they trade away veterans — like Alcantara and fellow starter Edward Cabrera, among a slew of other interesting arms.
5. What will swing teams do?
As mentioned above, there’s an opportunity here for some bubble teams to fill the holes in the market.
Keep an eye on clubs who are in similar situations as the Diamondbacks. Think: the St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, and Los Angeles Angels. Heck, even the Tampa Bay Rays, depending on what happens over the next week. Should some of those teams open themselves up to selling, names like Seth Lugo, Jhoan Duran, Taylor Ward, Steven Kwan, and Emmanuel Clase could become more prominent in the rumor mill.
Such is the beauty of the trade market: you never know what’s going to happen until it happens.
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