It’s too early into the 2025 MLB season for Mets fans to have concerns or second thoughts about Juan Soto’s $765 million contract, but there’s no denying the 26-year-old superstar hasn’t produced to his expectations through 18 games. Soto is batting .231 with a .798 OPS this season and has just two hits over his last five games. Those two were both home runs and despite Soto’s slow start, the Mets are 11-7 with the best record in the National League East. After losing back-to-back against the Twins, the Mets will return home for a four-game series against the Cardinals and are -142 favorites (risk $142 to win $100) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Mets’ first pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET as one of five games starting at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. Before then, the Phillies (-168) will try to salvage a four-game split against the Giants at home, with first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET SportsLine’s proven model has simulated every Thursday MLB game 10,000 times and revealed exact MLB score predictions for every game. It enters Week 4 of the 2025 MLB season on an 8-3 run on MLB money-line betting picks (+340).
Phillies to defeat the Giants (-168)
Score prediction: Phillies 4.8, Giants 3.9
The Phillies are starting 28-year-old left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has allowed one run in two of his three starts this season. Sanchez surrendered just one run in 6 1/3 innings against the Cardinals on Saturday in his last start, meanwhile Giants starter Jordan Hicks is coming off allowing seven runs over four innings to the Yankees on Saturday. Bryce Harper has a home run in back-to-back games and in four of his last five home contests against San Francisco, dating back to the end of last season. FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering the Phillies on the money line at -168 odds while the majority of other sportsbooks are at -175 or greater. The SportsLine model projects the Phillies to win in well over 60% of simulations. First pitch is 4:05 p.m. ET for those looking for some earlier action before the night slate.
Royals (+1.5) to cover vs. Tigers (-170)
Score prediction: Tigers 4.3, Royals 3.9
Veteran RHP Michael Lorenzen makes the start for Kansas City and he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his first three starts this season. Although the Royals are coming off being swept, those games came against the reigning AL Champion Yankees in the Bronx, and Kansas City lost all three games by three runs or fewer. The Kansas City bullpen allowed just two runs in the series and that will be a strength behind Lorenzen’s strong start to the season. The Tigers scored just one run in their back-to-back losses to the Brewers over their last two games and Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .310 with an .876 OPS to open the season for Kansas City. The model projects the Royals to cover in well over 60% of simulations and Caesars Sportsbook is offering this at -170 odds.
Yankees to defeat the Rays (+100)
Score prediction: Yankees 4.9, Rays 4.6
Will Warren takes the mound for the Yankees after holding the Giants to two runs and four baserunners with six strikeouts over five innings on Saturday. The 25-year-old RHP has allowed two runs or fewer in two of his three starts in his first full MLB season. The Yankees won three straight games at home and now return to their second home, although technically as the road team. Tampa Bay is playing its home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training site, following the damage to Tropicana Field from Hurricane Milton in the spring. George M. Steinbrenner Field is built to the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, so New York should feel comfortable in Tampa. The model projects the Yankees to win in over 50% of simulations, which gives strong value at even-money odds on BetMGM.
Over 7.5 runs scored in Cardinals vs. Mets (-112)
Score prediction: Mets 5.1, Cardinals 4.6
The model projects 9.7 runs scored with the Over hitting in almost 70% of simulations. The Mets are coming off back-to-back three-run outputs and rank just 19th in scoring (4.0 runs per game), but the lineup is filled with talent such as Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor. Last year, the Mets scored five runs over 4 2/3 innings against Cardinals probable starter Andre Pallante and the model forecasts some similar results this year. DraftKings is offering the best odds at -112 for Over 7.5 runs scored.
Rangers to defeat the Angels (-142)
Score prediction: Rangers 5.1, Angels 4.5
The Rangers look to complete a three-game sweep over the Angels behind dominant pitching in the first two contests. Los Angeles has scored only one run off Texas this series as the Rangers’ bullpen has thrown 6 1/3 scoreless innings over the two contests. Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is 5-for-7 with a walk, a double and two RBI in the series. The Angels are scheduled to start 24-year-old LHP Jack Kochanowicz, who allowed six runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Astros on Friday. The model projects the Rangers to win in over 60% of simulations and FanDuel is offering the best odds at -142.
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