College football’s offseason is built on optimism. Every program talks about progress, development and the pieces finally falling into place. But not every team is actually positioned to take a real step forward. That’s the idea behind this group of Power Four teams entering 2026.
Each program improved its win total from 2024 to 2025 — a sign that some level of progress is already underway — even if a few on this list are navigating new head coaches despite last season’s improvement. At the same time, none reached double-digit wins in 2025, leaving plenty of room for another jump this fall.
Those distinctions narrow the field to 17 Power Four programs, omitting a handful of teams that might rebound in a big way. Programs like Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech, for example, will look far different in 2026 after disappointing campaigns. But both took steps backward last year rather than forward, making them harder to consider true “on the rise” candidates right now.
Instead, the programs below are already trending upward and positioned to turn last year’s progress into something much bigger in 2026.
Arizona
Arizona made waves in 2025, more than doubling its win total and emerging as one of the Big 12’s biggest surprises. Under coach Brent Brennan, the Wildcats notched nine wins — an improvement from only four in 2024.
Star quarterback Noah Fifita returns as one of the more experienced passers in the conference, giving Arizona the chance to maintain its balance on both sides of the ball after ranking in the top five of the Big 12 in both scoring offense and scoring defense last year.
The schedule is by far more difficult in 2026, but if the Wildcats can stack a few key wins over ranked opponents, a College Football Playoff berth is firmly within reach.
California
California needed a jolt of energy, which is exactly what the program is banking on after hiring former defensive line standout Tosh Lupoi to lead his alma mater.
While obvious uncertainty comes with a first-time head coach, keeping Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in the fold at quarterback was a key first step. The Golden Bears lost several other important pieces to the transfer portal but made quick work of filling those holes, bringing in what ranks as the second-best incoming transfer class in the ACC. It’s been 20 years since California last won 10 games in a season, but with renewed excitement and a manageable schedule, reaching as many as eight wins isn’t out of the realm of possibility in 2026.
Kentucky
It’s a similar situation at Kentucky, where one of the longest-tenured coaches in the FBS was replaced by a young assistant from Oregon.
Will Stein takes over for Mark Stoops after a 13-year run that ended with consecutive losing records. There are clear challenges ahead, especially in the competitive SEC, as the Wildcats won just five games in 2025 and managed only three conference victories over the past two seasons.
However, with the No. 11 incoming transfer class — including Notre Dame transfer quarterback Kenny Minchey — and Stein’s proven ability to develop quarterbacks, Kentucky has the pieces in place to make a meaningful leap in 2026.
Michigan
It’s been an — um, let’s see — eventful offseason in Ann Arbor. Bringing in Kyle Whittingham — third on the active FBS wins list — immediately raised both the floor and the ceiling for Michigan.
Quarterback Bryce Underwood should benefit from the arrival of new offensive coordinator Jason Beck, whose system could help the Wolverines get back to a more consistent rhythm. The program is three years removed from its national championship in 2023, but the past two seasons under Sherrone Moore were a clear step backward. With new leadership, Michigan has the pieces to climb back into the CFP conversation again.
NC State
It seems like Dave Doeren and NC State end up on lists like this year after year, but ultimately fall short of the hype. So why not dream big again, right? The Wolfpack could have one of the easiest schedules in the ACC, with games against six of the eight lowest teams in Chip Patterson’s early power rankings.
Retaining quarterback CJ Bailey was a key offseason win, even if the program lost a handful of key offensive pieces around him. Doeren has been remarkably consistent, posting at least eight wins in eight of his 13 seasons in Raleigh. Perhaps this is the year NC State finally breaks through and hits that double-digit win total for the first time since 2002.
Northwestern
Winning at Northwestern is hard. That’s what makes David Braun being tied for the fourth-most wins (19) among Power Four coaches hired before the 2023 season so impressive, especially considering he took over as interim coach less than two months before the opener.
A new-and-improved Ryan Field isn’t the only reason for excitement in this upcoming 2026 campaign in Evanston, either. The Wildcats brought in Chip Kelly to coordinate the offense and landed Michigan State transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles, a former top-60 recruit in the 2023 class. Northwestern needs those pieces to come together quickly, especially with a challenging Big Ten slate. But Braun has already shown he can exceed expectations.
USC
No team in the FBS returns more starters (minimum six starts) than USC in 2026.
Even as Lincoln Riley and the Trojans secured the No. 1 high school recruiting class in the 2026 cycle, they also focused on retention and filling key needs through the transfer portal.
The continuity gives USC a potential advantage heading into a critical prove-it season for Riley, who is still searching for the program’s first true breakthrough in the Big Ten. If that experience translates, the Trojans could finally take the step many expected when Riley arrived.
Add Comment