Matt Norlander Court Report: Ranking the NCAA Tournament bubble, last four in

It’s Thursday of conference tournament week, which means the sprint to Selection Sunday has begun.

At CBS Sports, that process is unfolding a little differently this season. Each morning a group of data scientists and reporters gather to build the projected field of 68 — a model-driven exercise with human fingerprints. Consensus is the goal. Dissent is encouraged. And with several bubble teams separated by the thinnest of margins, there’s plenty of it. 

The bigger issue: this bubble might be the weakest in recent memory.

That’s not entirely unusual. By definition, the bubble is supposed to include flawed teams. But this year’s group pushes that concept further than most. Several contenders hovering around the cut line have résumés that, in stronger seasons, would likely have no business entering the NCAA Tournament conversation at all.

Instead, the door is open. And with conference tournaments underway, teams with imperfect profiles — and in some cases glaring ones — are still very much alive for the final at-large spots.

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Here’s the bubble situation, as I see it, for Maybe The Worst Bubble Ever ™️ coming out of Wednesday and heading into Thursday. Teams’ résumés generally ranked from best to worst. And by the way, we published the original version of this article before Miami (Ohio) suffered its first loss of the season, to UMass in the first round of the MAC Tournament. I said it earlier and I’ll say it again — the RedHawks are a lock for the Big Dance and do not warrant even bubble content consideration. 

Who Matt Norlander is locking up as NCAA Tournament teams

UCF (21–10)

UCF became a lock after its come-from-behind win over Cincinnati. The Knights face Arizona on Thursday.

• 34th in resume average; 53rd in predictive metrics

• 11–10 in Quad 1 and 2 with no bad losses

• 8–5 in road/neutral games

• Predictives are shaky, but the overall résumé safely clears the bar.

Iowa (21–11)

Iowa became a lock by avoiding a damaging loss to Maryland. The Hawkeyes face Ohio State on Thursday.

• 42nd in resume average; 27th in predictive metrics

• 9–11 in Quad 1 and 2

• One Quad 3 loss

• 7–8 in road/neutral games

• Strong predictive numbers carry the résumé

Ohio State (20–11)

Ohio State didn’t even play but effectively locked up a spot thanks to a wave of bubble losses. Iowa awaits Thursday.

• 37th in resume average; 24th in predictive metrics

• 9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 with no bad losses

• 6–8 in road/neutral games

• Strong predictive profile provides a significant cushion

NC State (20–12)

NC State should have enough despite a shaky finish. The Wolfpack face Virginia on Thursday.

How Norlander ranks 8 teams still alive on the bubble

1. Missouri (20–11)

Missouri is likely in, but a loss to Kentucky today could introduce a sliver of doubt.

• 43rd in resume average; 46th in predictive metrics

• 9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 (five Quad 1 wins)

• No Quad 3 losses

• Nonconference strength of schedule was abysmal

• 5–8 in road/neutral games

• Not better than 39th in any metric

2. VCU (24–7)

VCU keeps rising as other bubble teams keep losing. The Rams don’t play until Friday in the A-10 quarterfinals.

• 39th in resume average; 48th in predictive metrics

• 5–7 in Quad 1 and 2

• 19 combined results in Quad 3 and 4

• 10–5 in road/neutral games, stronger than many projected teams

3. SMU (20–13)

SMU’s résumé has slid after a loss to Louisville on Thursday, with BJ Edwards (13 ppg) unavailable. How will the committee hold Edwards’ potential season-long absence against the Mustangs?

• 45th in resume average; 43rd in predictive metrics

• 9–13 in Quad 1 and 2

• No bad losses

• Metrics generally range between 37–48

• 4–9 in road/neutral games

4. Texas (18–14)

Texas took a damaging loss Thursday to Mississippi and now sits with 14 defeats.

• 50th in resume average (danger zone); 42nd in predictive metrics

• 7–13 in Quad 1 and 2

• Six Quad 1 wins

• One Quad 3 loss

• 11–14 across the top three quadrants

• 5–8 in road/neutral games

5. New Mexico (22–9)

New Mexico likely sits outside the field for now. Next up is San Jose State, and even a win won’t significantly boost the résumé — but it cannot afford a loss. 

• 47th in resume average; 52nd in predictive metrics

• 8–7 in Quad 1 and 2

• 6–1 in Quad 2

• 4–2 in Quad 3

• 8–6 in road/neutral games

• Not better than 44th in any metric

6. Auburn (17–15)

Auburn beat Mississippi State — big whoop? — and now faces Tennessee in the second round of the SEC Tournament. If Auburn beats Tennessee, it flies up this ranking. 

• 44th in resume average; 35th in predictive metrics

• 7–14 in Quad 1 and 2

• One Quad 3 loss

• 5–11 in road/neutral games

• Guaranteed at least 16 losses, which would be unprecedented for an at-large bid

7. San Diego State (20–10)

San Diego State likely needs two wins to have a realistic shot.

• 49th in resume average; 49th in predictive metrics

• 7–9 in Quad 1 and 2

• One Quad 3 loss

• 6–8 in road/neutral games

• Needs wins over Colorado State and another opponent Friday

8. Oklahoma (18–14)

Oklahoma can at least enter the conversation with a win over Texas A&M, but another loss likely ends the discussion.

• 56th in resume average; 44th in predictive metrics

• 9–14 in Quad 1 and 2

• 11–14 across the top three quadrants

• 7–9 in road/neutral games

I think it’s over for these bubble hopes

Virginia Tech (19–13)

Stanford (20–12)

California (21–11)

• 73rd in predictive metrics

• 54th or worse across most metrics

• Résumé falls well short

Indiana (18–14)

Lastly: I think Cincinnati and West Virginia are eliminated, too, and I know Florida State fans woke up this morning with bubble hopes but I won’t entertain that unless the Seminoles knock off Duke on Thursday evening, which would of course change the calculus.