Mac Jones now looks like the best QB from the 2021 draft class

Mac Jones is the best quarterback in a disappointing 2021 NFL Draft class. Sure, that’s like saying he’s the best student in a class full of dummies, but who thought — years after Jones’ New England flameout was accelerated by Bill Belichick — we’d ever be having this discussion?

It’s a reasonable argument that has something to do with what he’s doing and a lot to do with the rest of the class, which included five first-rounders, a second-rounder who was picked No. 32 overall (Kyle Trask) and mid-round luminaires like Ian Book and Kellen Mond. 

CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson did a redraft of the 2021 NFL Draft last week and only had one of the five first-round quarterbacks still going in Round 1 (Trevor Lawrence). Yeah, it’s been ugly. And the way things are going the last few weeks, Jones might deserve to be the only first rounder. 

Justin Fields was benched on Sunday as the Jets are off to an 0-7 start. Lawrence is having another subpar year and cannot seem to stack good weeks upon good weeks. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are backups and seem unlikely to receive recent memo about “transfer portal QBs” thriving in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, out by the Bay, Jones has led the 49ers to a 5-2 record (they are 4-1 in his starts) despite dealing with more injuries than any other team. He’s playing solid, albeit not spectacular, football while gutting out knee and oblique injuries after joining the 49ers years after Kyle Shanahan & Co. nearly drafted him.

Contextualizing why Jones did not work out in New England is important — because nobody did. CBS Sports analyst Damien Harris, a running back on those Pats teams, summarized it perfectly a year ago in an interview with The Athletic Football Show:

“I will die on this hill, and people might be upset with me, people might be happy with me, people might be somewhere in-between. What happened to Mac Jones in New England was not because of Mac Jones. What happened in New England to Mac Jones was because of the fact you took away an offensive coordinator who coached him to be a Pro Bowler and almost coached us to winning our division with a rookie quarterback in his first year.

“And then you take — whenever Josh McDaniels left — Matt Patricia, who has coached defenses his entire life, and Joe Judge, who has been a special teams coach, coached receivers at some point. And then you just throw them in there and be like, ‘Hey, coach this kid up. He’s a first-round pick, but as long as you teach him what I say, everything will be fine.’ And shit wasn’t fine.”

Hindsight of how bad the Belichick era ended in New England allows us to look at that era of Jones’ career differently. Jones is no longer the one who’s a punch line. Jones has probably grown up some, too. He’s started more games. The rest of his class has flopped. A make-or-break season for Lawrence has cooled down. And thus we continue to uncover new data points that suggest Jones was the quarterbacking prize of 2021. Which, to be fair, is not saying a whole lot. 

The 2021 class has produced 3 average seasons by QBs (Jones has two)

This season, Jones is fourth among qualified quarterbacks in success rate and 13th in EPA per dropback this year. This would be the second average (to above average) season of his career when you include his rookie year, when Jones led the Patriots to the playoffs (16th in EPA per dropback) and 2025. 

Somehow, he’s the only quarterback taken in the first round in 2021 that can make that claim. Again, it’s not the highest bar. 

The five quarterbacks in the first round of the 2021 draft class have produced a lot of ugly seasons. Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones have combined to play for 13 teams for good reason. They’ve combined for 18 qualified seasons and Jones has two of the three ranking inside the top 20 in EPA per dropback. The other is Lawrence’s 2022 season (more on that in a minute).

Fields makes dubious history through 50 career starts

Even when Justin Fields ran for over 1,000 yards in his second season he finished 22nd in EPA per dropback. He had too many sacks (NFL-high 55) and turnovers (13) that year, which is his career in a nutshell. He has a 14-36 career record, tied for the worst since 1970 through 50 career starts (with Blake Bortles, Steve DeBerg and Jeff George). Plus, he has the most sacks (171) by any quarterback in their first 50 starts since David Carr in the early-to-mid 2000s. 

There are 30 quarterbacks with 1,000 pass attempts since 2021. Fields ranks 28th in EPA per dropback. He has the highest sack rate, highest pressure rate, longest average time to throw and is 28th in off-target rate. Despite the crazy athleticism and arm strength he’s been unable to harness it as he’s always had a wild arm and holds onto the ball too long. 

That’s plagued him again in 2025 as he once again has the highest sack rate in the NFL and ranks near the bottom in all the categories listed above. 

Lawrence has played a half-season of good football in his career

Trevor Lawrence had the other average year mentioned above and it was more like half a year. He finished sixth in EPA per dropback in 2022 when the Jaguars won seven of their last nine games to make the playoffs. But, that’s really the only good stretch of his entire career. Half a season. He was third in the NFL in EPA per dropback during that nine-game stretch (0.19). He’s 32nd out of 39 qualifiers the rest of his career in that category (-0.04), which amounts to 58 starts. 

Urban Meyer didn’t help in his rookie year but turnovers have been his downfall. He’s 26th out of 30 quarterbacks in turnover rate since 2021 (minimum 1,000 attempts). 

Lawrence’s shining moment did not last long

Lawrence hasn’t taken a step forward with rookie head coach Liam Coen, either. He’s 25th in EPA per dropback and middle of the pack in explosive pass rate and turnover rate this year. He’s averaging a pedestrian 5.5 yards per dropback despite having two first-round wideouts to throw to in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. The only slack I’ll cut him is this. Lawrence has had 25 passes dropped this year, the most of any quarterback through seven games in the last 10 seasons. 

Lawrence and Jones have nearly identical numbers in their careers

The case for Jones as the best quarterback from this class becomes clearer when you consider he has put up nearly identical numbers to Lawrence in his career. 

Plus, they put up similar numbers when both were in Jacksonville last season (Jones with a leg up on completion percentage and EPA per dropback in seven starts). So it stands to reason that if they have similar production throughout their careers and Jones’ stock is up right now, then he gets the upper hand. 

What’s gone into Jones’ 2025 revitalization

So, how has Jones pulled this off? 

You can see why Shanahan initially wanted to draft Jones in 2021. He gets rid of the ball quickly and accurately and into the hands of playmakers like Christian McCaffrey. He has the sixth-fastest average time to throw this year (from snap to release) and the second-lowest off-target rate. As you can see in the chart below (red X marks the spot for Jones), he’s really the only player in the bottom left corner. So nobody is getting rid of the ball quicker with accuracy quite like Jones.

We mentioned it earlier but it bears repeating, Jones ranks fourth among qualified passers in success rate this season. Jones may not be landing haymakers out there but he’s moving the chains. The 49ers rank second in third-down conversion rate this year and they have the second-shortest average distance to gain on third down.

Jones has leaned on McCaffrey to keep drives going as the 49ers have used CMAC as a chess piece all over the field. Thirty percent of Jones’ pass attempts are to running backs this season, the highest rate by any quarterback since Alex Smith in 2020.

McCaffrey has been on the receiving end of seven of Jones’ 22 conversions on third down this season. Overall, McCaffrey has 18 conversions on third down in 2025, the most by a running back through seven games since Deuce McAllister in 2003. 

One reason Jones has leaned on McCaffrey so much is the lack of other options out there. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings have combined to miss 17 games this season. The most common five-player skill player combo with Jones this year has been McCaffrey, Jake Tonges, DeMarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That group has played 30 snaps together, so hardly anything, and that’s the most continuity Jones has had. 

This isn’t exactly 2023 when Brock Purdy was throwing to Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle and Deebo Samuel with regularity. Week 3 was a microcosm of how Jones has been elevating the team all year. He led the 49ers on a game-winning drive vs. the Cardinals and four of his five completions on the drive were to Tonges, Bourne and Skyy Moore. 

He’s doing more with less as the 49ers are approaching $100 million in player salary on one reserve list or another, by far the most in football.

Most 2025 APY (average annual salary) on reserve lists

This is a fascinating journey and proof that the path to success is not always linear. Jones’ story is still being written and it stands to be one of the storylines of the NFL’s second half how much more he plays this year as Purdy appears close to returning from turf toe. 

Given what the 49ers have invested in him, Purdy is not in danger of being Wally Pipp’d, but Jones has proven he can fill in capably as a starter if Purdy’s toe injury continues to be a problem. He will be somebody’s Week 1 starter headed into the 2026 season, which puts him in rarified air among his draft class.