The Luka Dončić trade was considered an all-time NBA heist the moment it was consummated. An injury-prone superstar, a third-year guard with less than 3,000 minutes on his career resume and a single first-round pick from the second-winningest team in NBA history were all it took for the Los Angeles Lakers to land a then-25-year-old MVP candidate one year removed from not only a trip to the NBA Finals, but the only season in league history in which a player ever averaged 33 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. Mavericks fans were so outraged with Nico Harrison’s boneheaded decision that few ever considered how the Lakers managed to swing the deal at such a reasonable price. The answer is that, at least on paper, it came with a reasonable amount of risk.
At the time, Dončić was a season-and-a-half away from free agency, which really meant his team, whoever it would be, would be only half of a season away from gut-check time. Whether Dončić was a Maverick, a Laker or something else, there were three plausible decisions he could have made when that moment of truth arrived this summer. Two of them were negative for his incumbent team.
He could have made it clear he did not intend to stay as a 2026 free agent. That likely would have included a trade request, which usually comes attached to a specific team. That in turn lowers the likely return. The Lakers are quite familiar with this strategy. It’s how they got Anthony Davis. With only six months on the team, though, it would have taken something truly catastrophic to sour Dončić on Los Angeles so quickly. A first-round loss to Minnesota doesn’t qualify.
The more realistic negative outcome would have been the more indecisive one. Dončić easily could have told the Lakers that he hadn’t made up his mind yet. He could have decided, even if he was open to remaining with the Lakers, that he wanted to retain the flexibility to explore free agency. One way or another, this would have caused a panic in Los Angeles. Maybe they would have panic-traded Dončić to avoid the possibility of him leaving for nothing. More likely, they would have done what LeBron James likely would have preferred and gone all in on winning the 2026 championship. That would have meant trading draft picks, offering multi-year deals, and doing things that likely would have cost the Lakers significantly in the longer term. James rarely thinks that way. He quite frequently tries to force these sorts of moves out of his teams.
Dončić just made the NBA Finals a year ago. Another player of his stature may have been impatient enough to think this way. Even if this wasn’t his mindset, he would have been more than justified in being reluctant to re-sign. After all, he’d only been in Los Angeles six months. He didn’t choose to go to the Lakers, and their first-round loss, while hardly catastrophic, wasn’t especially encouraging either. Under the circumstances, it wouldn’t have been hard to understand Dončić having some lingering trust issues after the way his Dallas tenure ended. It’s hard to build a relationship in six months.
The Lakers leveraged these theoretical fears into more favorable trade terms. That’s why they still have Austin Reaves and Dalton Knecht and their 2031 first-round pick. But these are fears that apply to normal teams, and that was the brilliance of these negotiations, because the Lakers hoodwinked the Mavericks into accepting that they were a normal team and not, well, the Lakers. The third plausible decision was the one he made. He signed a two-year extension with a player option for a potential third year in 2028-29. And, well, of course he did. When has a player of Dončić’s stature ever left the Lakers? Kobe Bryant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson never did. Shaquille O’Neal and Anthony Davis were traded on the team’s terms. Dwight Howard left, but that took a torn Achilles from Bryant and perhaps the most chaotic season in franchise history, hardly replicable conditions. You’ll notice that despite James’ frustrations, he’s still wearing purple and gold. The 29 other teams are playing one game. The Lakers are playing another. Other teams worry about losing their stars. The Lakers plot to steal everyone else’s.
That’s what’s coming next. That’s what has informed the way the Lakers have managed this offseason. They’re keeping their powder dry, because now that Dončić is locked in, they know they’re about to have everything they need to seek out his sidekick.
Initially, there was likely some hope that a 2026 free agent could be that player. When the Lakers initially traded for Mark Williams, part of the appeal would have been his low cap hold as a 2026 free agent. Austin Reaves has one as well, and the thought was that the Lakers could keep Dončić, Reaves, Williams and still maintain max cap space. The obvious target at the time was Jaren Jackson Jr., an ideal defensive complement to the offensively inclined Dončić-Reaves backcourt. He wound up re-signing with Memphis, and with De’Aaron Fox seemingly set to remain in San Antonio as well, Trae Young is the last remaining younger 2026 star. He and Dončić just don’t fit together given their on-ball proclivities. Besides, the Lakers are currently aiming a bit bigger, literally and figuratively.
For the time being, both Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are set to become free agents in 2027. That can obviously change. Jokić was eligible to extend this offseason but declined to do so. The obvious explanation was that he can make more money by waiting a year. The subtext is that, should things go south in Denver, he’d have a close friend waiting for him in Los Angeles. Antetokounmpo is not eligible to extend in Milwaukee yet. He will be next offseason. The Bucks are obviously quite aware of the trade rumors that have surrounded him all summer. If he elects not to extend next summer, the Bucks would almost have to trade him rather than risk him walking into vacant Laker cap space.
This is the subtext of the 2027 plan. The hope is that it wouldn’t have to wait until 2027 to come together. Just as the Lakers were supposed to fear a possible Dončić trade request if he had not been happy in Los Angeles, they are banking on someone, whether it’s Antetokounmpo, Jokić or someone we aren’t expecting, to become unhappy somewhere else. The cap space is their leverage, their way of saying “you can give us your star or we can take him.” In a perfect world, the move happens sooner.
The Lakers have subtly been setting themselves up for that ever since they nixed the Williams trade. Right now, the Lakers have only one tradable first-round pick, in 2031. Next offseason, that figure triples to three. Their 2033 pick opens up via the seven-year rule. Their 2026 pick unlocks from a Stepien Rule perspective the moment it is used. They’d also have the ability to offer first-round swap rights in any season except 2027 (when they owe their top-four protected pick to the Jazz) and 2029 (when their pick goes to Dallas). With 2026 cap space, they could absorb a big-name player outright, without having to send money back in a trade. That’s valuable to cheap owners and rebuilding front offices.
Is that package going to win a fair bidding war? No. Frankly, it wouldn’t even with Reaves involved. The Rockets and Spurs have the ammunition to blow anyone out of the water on that front. But hey, the Celtics had the ammunition to outbid the Lakers for Davis. How’d that one turn out?
Practically the entirety of NBA history has taught us what to expect next. Someone is going to say “I want to play with Dončić for the Lakers.” And that someone is going to get his wish. This would be an unrealistic fantasy for a lot of teams, but as we’ve covered, it’s just how things tend to work for the Lakers. We don’t know who it will be yet, but the Lakers will be able to access another star-level talent at a below-market price because they’re the Lakers. They didn’t have to worry about Dončić forcing his way out, and they won’t have to worry about someone trying to join him.
That’s the irony of the Dončić trade. It really was one of the biggest heists in NBA history, but not entirely for the reasons people thought. While the Lakers did get their next franchise player at a fraction of his fair price, there were at least somewhat plausible explanations for how the Lakers negotiated for that bargain. Where the value is really going to be felt, though, is in what comes next.
The Dončić trade brought the Lakers back to life. Though they were competitive in recent years with James and Davis, they were circling the drain longer-term. They had an aging roster the front office had clearly lost faith in, and while it likely would have taken a few years, they were headed for a rebuild. The Dončić trade let them skip all of that. They paid a pittance for a centerpiece they had no other obvious way of accessing. As the Lakers learned in the interregnum between Bryant and James, getting the first star is the hard part. As they saw with Davis and so many other prior moves, getting the second comes naturally. Now that Dončić is locked up, the Lakers are almost certainly going to find him a running mate, and once again, it’s going to be a heist.
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