Kevin Durant trades: Spurs? Rockets? T-Wolves? How those teams and 2 others may be able to land KD

For a variety of reasons, Kevin Durant is probably going to net less in a trade than the Phoenix Suns might like. Consider the following:

• When Durant has moved in the past, it has always been as almost indisputably a top-five player in the NBA (when healthy). That isn’t the case anymore. The metrics are mostly unkind to him: 29th in BPM, 32nd in EPM, 48th in estimated RAPTOR and 84th in Win Shares per 48 Minutes, just to name a few. Where exactly he still falls in the league hierarchy is subjective, but for the first time, it’s plausible to believe that his all-time ranking (somewhere in the 15-20 range, most believe) is higher than his ranking among the best players for the 2025-26 season.
• The Suns bear some responsibility for those to disappointing metrics, but most of it is just because of age. Durant will be 37-years-old on opening night, and there are things he just doesn’t do as well anymore. He doesn’t really get to the basket anymore, taking just two shots per game in the restricted area. His free-throw rate has been down in Phoenix, though not nearly to the extent his rim numbers are. As he’s never been an especially potent playmaker, you’re mostly just getting a jump-shooter on offense. Now, he’s a Kevin Durant-level jump-shooter, but you typically want more creation out of a player making the money Durant is making. He’s mostly going to be a shot-maker at this stage of his career.
• Speaking of money, he is currently slated to be the fourth-highest-paid player in what will likely be the most financially perilous season in recent, non-COVID-affected NBA history. The luxury tax formula gets harsher this year. The full impact of the aprons is starting to set in. Teams are cautious with their spending nowadays. They have to be. And Durant, given his age and injury history, comes with a significant amount of risk.
• Durant is expensive, but he’s also on an expiring contract. That gives him meaningful leverage in directing the proceedings to a preferred destination. This doesn’t look to be an open bidding war. At the very least, Durant will be involved. At most, he could stick his thumb on the scale for a certain destination.

Durant is not Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is not a 30-year-old with multiple years left on his contract. He’s a risky bet, one that several teams are going to consider making, but at a price that reflects the uncertainty here. It is entirely reasonable to believe that a Durant trade could swing the 2026 championship. It could just as easily be a dud. The threat of age-related decline or a lengthy injury-induced absence is going to be baked into the cost of acquiring him. He will generate a lot of value for the Suns, but this won’t be anything close to the massive haul they paid the Nets for him just two years ago.

So let’s try to figure out what exactly such a deal could look like. Below are five mock trades that send Durant to new homes as a way to attempt to estimate what the price on such a deal would look like. Note that I have covered the possibility of a Knicks trade involving Karl-Anthony Towns in-depth here, so we’re hitting five new destinations today, starting with two franchises that would offer Durant the possibility of ending his career in the same state he jumped onto the scene as one of the best college basketball players in the game’s history. 

Suns get: Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Jock Landale, No. 10 overall pick

Rockets get: Kevin Durant

Nets get: Aaron Holiday, 2026 second-round pick (via Thunder, Mavericks or 76ers)

You’ll notice most of Houston’s best assets are off of the table. No Amen Thompson. No Alperen Sengun. No 2027 or 2029 Suns picks. That stuff is off-limits for a 37-year-old. If it’s getting moved, it’s for someone who can be the long-term centerpiece. So Phoenix gets the B-listers here, each of whom, for some reason or another, has been crowded out of a long-term place in Houston. 

With Thompson rising and a big name incoming, there aren’t as many on-ball reps available for Green. Smith is extension-eligible, but so is Tari Eason, and the Rockets are probably only paying to keep one of their young, defensive-minded forwards. The Rockets didn’t use last year’s No. 3 pick, Reed Sheppard, so there aren’t minutes available for No. 10 this year either.

Phoenix would be happy with Smith and the pick, but Green is a bit more complicated. In truth, they’d likely prefer Fred VanVleet to Green in this deal. They already have Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen. What do they need with another shooting guard? Well, Houston can’t sacrifice its point guard in a championship push, so it’s on the Suns to adapt. The obvious play here would be to turn either Green or Allen into a center somewhere, but the immediate fit is hard to find. As tempting as it would be to loop in, say, Chicago and send Nikola Vučević to Phoenix, there’s no way the Bulls are going to want to pay out three more years on Allen’s contract.

That leaves work for the Suns to do in this deal’s aftermath, but they’d ultimately be taking swings on two highly drafted young players and taking a swing on a third at No. 10. Would it improve their roster in the short-term? Absolutely not. But it would at least create upside for the future, and though Green and Booker share a position, they’re interesting fits given how differently they score. Green’s athleticism would theoretically pair nicely with Booker’s shot-making. The Suns lacked rim pressure a year ago. Green doesn’t generate nearly as much as he should yet, but he had very little space to work with in Houston. Maybe Smith-at-center lineups with this Suns team open the floor up for him.

The Rockets still have a bit of work to do here in the aftermath of this deal. By aggregating salaries for Durant, they’d hard-cap themselves at the second apron. That could get tight if they plan to re-sign Steven Adams. There’s an easy solution here: just decline VanVleet’s team option and re-sign him at a lower cap number, but for more years. That’s likely where this goes anyway, but a trade like this basically necessitates it. Still, the Rockets with Durant, VanVleet and their best young players could easily compete for the 2026 championship. With their best pick assets in reserve, they’d have room to take another swing down the line when Durant is gone. 

The Nets are here to take on a contract. They get a second-round pick for their troubles, as Houston needed to dump a bit more money to avoid a first-apron hard cap. That moving Holiday opens up more bench minutes for Sheppard is a nice bonus. 

Suns get: Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Harrison Barnes, No. 14 pick

Spurs get: Kevin Durant

The basic principle here is similar to the Houston deal. Phoenix gets two young players, one of whom was already paid (Vassell, who has four years and around $106 remaining on his deal), and another who is extension-eligible (Sochan, a defensive ace that can’t shoot yet). Toss in a late lottery pick and some expiring salary and we’ve got ourselves a trade package.

Once again, the fit for Phoenix is a tad awkward. Vassell has played plenty of small forward, but he’s closer to shooting guard-sized. More importantly, there’s a lot of overlap between he and Booker stylistically. Vassell takes too many mid-range jumpers and doesn’t really get to the basket or the line. Sochan’s defense would be welcome, but he’s not a center, so unless the Suns could find one that shoots, things might get a bit cramped offensively. Phoenix already has that issue with Ryan Dunn, so they’d have to hope that someone improves here or plot a follow-up move.

But, once again, the best assets are off-limits. The Spurs just can’t justify dangling Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle or the No. 2 overall pick for a a player this old. An interesting workaround here would be to offer De’Aaron Fox straight up for Durant. The Suns get a point guard who’d fit pretty well with Booker. The Spurs solve the backcourt logjam that frees them up to take Dylan Harper at No. 2 in the upcoming draft. But a Fox-for-Durant trade just isn’t how the NBA works. Fox pushed to get to San Antonio. Trading him now burns a bridge with his agent, the ultra-powerful Rich Paul, and stains your reputation around the league. Besides, Fox technically hasn’t extended yet. He just forced his way out of Sacramento because he wanted to compete for championships. Why wouldn’t he just do the same to the Suns in 2026 free agency?

Dylan Harper expected to be the No. 2 pick in the NBA Draft but will it be by the Spurs?

Cameron Salerno

So, as with their in-state rivals in Houston, we’re working with San Antonio’s secondary asset pool. The Spurs have to save their best tools for players who fit on Victor Wembanyama’s timeline. They’re so asset-rich that they can afford a luxury swing like this on Durant. With him, they’d be a legitimate championship contender. They’re just not going to lose the plot here. Wembanyama gives them a decade-long window or longer. They’d like to win now, but Durant will be retired before Wembanyama even hits his prime, so they’re going to preserve their best assets for that period.

Suns get: Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Goga Bitadze, Terrence Shannon Jr., No. 25 pick

Magic get: Donte DiVincenzo

Timberwolves get: Kevin Durant

Nets get: Gary Harris, No. 46 pick

We’ve talked about two asset-rich teams holding their best stuff back. Now, we’re talking about an asset-poor team holding its best stuff back. Jaden McDaniels is off-limits. Phoenix would surely be interested in a trade centered around Rudy Gobert. He’s one of the best defensive floor-raisers of all time, and Phoenix needs rim-protection badly. But Minnesota needs Gobert for its own championship push. Randle and Naz Reid are already pretty duplicative. That works out fine with a top defender in the mix, but without one, Minnesota’s roster is tilted too heavily towards offense.

So here’s our compromise. Phoenix gets Randle to serve as Booker’s offensive sidekick. He has some leverage here because of his player option, so the Suns would have to sign him to an extension to convince him to participate. We then use one of Minnesota’s best role players, DiVincenzo, to get the Suns a center in Bitadze. While he certainly doesn’t have Gobert’s reputation or accolades, he is a metrics darling defensively who is ready for a bigger role than the Magic have been able to give him. Orlando, meanwhile, turns a backup center into the shooting it so desperately needs. Win-win.

Magic’s playoff elimination hammers home an obvious fatal flaw: Orlando badly needs a scoring guard

Sam Quinn

The picks and youth here aren’t as enticing as they are in the Texas deals, but Shannon just played good rotation minutes in the Western Conference finals as a rookie. Getting him for three more cheap seasons is a win, and the No. 25 pick from Orlando is the cherry on top. Conley isn’t a starting-caliber point guard anymore, but he can give the Suns nice bench minutes as he rides off into the sunset. If Minnesota had picks to offer, we’d put them on the table. The Gobert and Rob Dillingham trades deprived the Timberwolves of their draft capital. If the Suns prefer Dillingham’s youth and upside to Shannon, that might be negotiable.

Even without Gobert or McDaniels in the deal, this is a trickier trade for the Timberwolves than it might look. They’re giving up four likely 2026 rotation players for one, and because they’re aggregating, they’re hard-capping themselves at the second apron. That makes retaining Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency while filling out the rest of the roster significantly more difficult. They could use the taxpayer mid-level exception to replace one if either leaves, but that’s an obvious downgrade. This would, in essence, be Minnesota trading the depth that was so significant to its last two playoff pushes to upgrade Randle into Durant. Doing so would have still been obvious in February. Now, after Randle finished the season strong (before the Thunder series, at least), it’s more of a question.

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Sam Quinn

But, ultimately, the price here is so low that they’d have to pull the trigger. Anthony Edwards idolized Durant growing up. They played together on Team USA. This trade would as much be about appeasing their best player as it would be competing. Of course, it helps on the contention front as well. Randle was largely bad against the Thunder, and beating Oklahoma City is the goal here. Team president Tim Connelly has never shied away from risk. If he thinks Durant gives the Timberwolves a chance against the Thunder, he’ll roll the dice at the right price.

Suns get: Andrew Wiggins, Robert Williams III, Nikola Jović, 2030 first-round pick, 2032 first-round pick

Heat get: Kevin Durant

Trail Blazers get: Duncan Robinson

Miami has the least player value to offer here unless Kel’El Ware (probably no), Tyler Herro (almost certainly no) or Bam Adebayo (you’ve been beheaded for besmirching Heat Culture) were available. That means they’d have to supplement their offer with the most pick value. In this deal, we’ll let the Heat keep the No. 20 pick this year to help build depth. In exchange, the Suns get unprotected picks in 2030 and 2032, when Durant will be retired and Adebayo will be at or near the end of his prime.

Those picks would be valuable trade chips, and we can assume, based on Mat Ishbia’s history, that he’d likely dangle them for win-now help. He gets a bit of it in this deal. Wiggins has had an up-and-down last few years because of personal issues, but he’s somehow only 30-years-old and a pretty valuable two-way forward to put in a lineup next to Booker. Williams is the center we’ll snag for this deal. Portland has gotten too good to tank, but needs more shooting to help develop young guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. Robinson fills that need while solving Portland’s center logjam. Jović is probably a long-term reserve, but forwards who can shoot and pass are usually helpful.

The fundamental question for Miami here is whether Durant makes them good enough to essentially mortgage their future. This would be it. Between these picks and the one owed to Charlotte, the Heat would be out of the star-trading game for the foreseeable future beyond dealing young players they already have or surprisingly develop (which, given their history, actually isn’t that surprising anymore). 

So, is Durant worth it? The answer is yes, at least if Ware continues to grow as the team hopes. That might not be the case if Boston was still at full power, but, with apologies to the Indiana Pacers, the Eastern Conference throne is vacant right now. There is no obvious juggernaut holding it. A team built around Herro, Durant and Adebayo would have a real chance to seize it. That chance would rise significantly if Ware takes a major step or if the shooting Davion Mitchell showed with the Heat last season persists. Miami always develops depth.

If the Heat were in a position to trade for someone younger, they probably would have done it by now. Their asset pool is fairly limited. They just traded Jimmy Butler for a pretty limited package. This could be Miami’s last real chance to get into the Finals conversation for the foreseeable future — and we’d assume that’s something the 80-year-old Pat Riley has on his mind. As risky as Durant is, the Heat don’t have a better option available to them.

Suns get: Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, Jaden Ivey, No. 37 pick, 2026 first-round pick

Pistons get: Kevin Durant

This one ties back to the vacuum at the top of the Eastern Conference ahead of Jayson Tatum’s one-year absence. If the Celtics were still the Celtics, it may not make sense for Detroit to hit the accelerator like this. But Cade Cunningham, Kevin Durant and an elite defense is good enough to make the Finals, and a second shot-maker is the single thing the Pistons need most at this stage in their build. Cunningham was the only Detroit player to average even 16 points per game in the first round against the Knicks.

The cost is simultaneously steep is and reasonable. Moving off of Ivey now hurts. Before his season-ending injury, he was having a breakout year. His ability to get to the rim was never in question, but his jumper was coming along nicely. But it feels notable, even if it wasn’t his fault, that the Pistons took off after he was gone. He’s now extension-eligible and will want a hefty deal. The Pistons can afford to give it to him, but if they fear he overlaps too much with Cunningham, now would be the team to cash in their stock. Stewart fits nicely in Phoenix as a tough, defensive big man that rebounds and, until this season anyway, could even shoot some 3s. Both fit well with Booker and are young enough to win with him for years to come.

But the important asset point from Detroit’s perspective here is that its future picks would not be encumbered. The Pistons would give up their 2026 pick, yes, but would have all of their future picks available to trade later, when they will have a better idea of what they actually need around Cunningham to win. They’d still have Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren. The core would be intact. The picks would be available. 

In a way, that makes this trade somewhat akin to the one Indiana made for Pascal Siakam, albeit at a higher price point. It was a bet that their young star point guard was ready to compete right away, but it was structured in such a way it wouldn’t prevent the Pacers from making their next trade later. After next season, Indiana is pick-neutral again and can make another star trade if it wants to. That would be the idea for Detroit: get Durant now, try to win with him for a year or two, and then use your draft picks to pivot into whatever comes next. Siakam obviously came with a longer runway, but he’s six years older than Tyrese Haliburton, so their timelines obviously weren’t perfectly aligned.

It might be the Pistons. It might be the Magic. It might be the Heat. It might be someone we’re not seeing. But someone in the middle of the Eastern Conference is going to try to take advantage of the uncertainty at the top of the standings. Even by Eastern Conference standards, chances like this are pretty rare.