Kentucky vs. Florida prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 SEC Tournament picks from proven model

The defending national champion and top-seeded Florida Gators take on the ninth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats in a 2026 SEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup on Friday afternoon. Kentucky defeated eighth-seeded Missouri 78-72 in Thursday’s second-round matchup, while Florida closed out the regular season with an 84-77 win at Kentucky on Saturday. The Wildcats (21-12), who are 5-8 against ranked opponents this season, last won the tournament in 2018. The Gators (25-6), who have won 11 in a row, are looking to win their second consecutive SEC Tournament title.

Tipoff from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., is set for 1 p.m. ET. Kentucky leads the all-time series 111-44, but Florida earned a regular-season sweep over the Wildcats. Florida is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Florida vs. Kentucky odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 159.5. Before making any Kentucky vs. Florida picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Kentucky vs. Florida 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Florida vs. Kentucky:

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Top Kentucky vs. Florida predictions

SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (159.5 points). The Over has hit in six of the past seven meetings between the teams. The Over has also hit in four of the last five Kentucky games, and in four of the last seven Florida games. Kentucky is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games. Florida, meanwhile, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Wildcats to have four players score 8.6 points or more, including Otega Oweh, who is projected to score 18.9 points. The Gators are projected to have five players score 11.4 points or more, led by Thomas Haugh, who is projected to score 17.2 points. The model is projecting 160 combined points.

How to make Florida vs. Kentucky picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Florida vs. Kentucky, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Kentucky vs. Florida spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.