Jets part with Aaron Rodgers: Justin Fields slightly improves playoff chances, per projection model

Despite coming off their seventh consecutive losing season, the New York Jets were loaded with optimism heading into the 2023 campaign. They became the third NFL team since 1967 to boast both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, as wide receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner — both of whom were top-10 draft picks — won the respective awards in 2022.

Even though they posted a 7-10 record that year, the Jets possessed the fourth-best defense in the league with an average of 311.1 yards allowed and were third against the pass (189.4 yards allowed). Putting points on the board was an issue, however, as New York ranked 29th at 17.4 points per game.

The team’s main offensive deficiency was production from its starting quarterbacks. Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco combined to complete only 56.7% of their pass attempts while throwing for 14 touchdowns with an identical amount of interceptions.

Realizing that Zach Wilson, the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, was not the answer, the Jets went out and acquired four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers in April 2023, prompting their fanbase to beam with an enormous amount of jubilance and immediately form Super Bowl aspirations.

Rodgers’ debut with New York got off to a tremendous start as he received a thunderous ovation when he carried an American flag as he ran onto the field at MetLife Stadium on Sept. 11, 2023, for the team’s opener against the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. But four plays into his tenure with the Jets, his season came to a devastating end as his Achilles tendon was ruptured when he was sacked by Leonard Floyd.

The Jets went on to defeat Buffalo in overtime with Zach Wilson under center, and they owned a 4-3 record after seven games, but a five-game losing streak basically extinguished what little hope their fans still had for a trip to the postseason. Zach Wilson came up with several solid performances prior to the slide, but the QB situation became a disaster during the skid as Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian surpassed him on the depth chart.

Wilson regained the starting job in Week 14 and played well in a 30-6 victory over the Houston Texans but suffered a concussion the following week and missed the rest of the season.

Rodgers made a full recovery and was ready to live up to the high expectations bestowed upon him in 2024, but his off-the-field antics — including missing New York’s mandatory minicamp because of a vacation in Egypt — left a sour taste in some people’s mouths. Many pundits also were skeptical about his ability due to the injury and his age, as he was set to turn 41 before season’s end.

The Jets won two of their first three contests last year before losing five in a row, with Rodgers often looking like a shell of his former self. He started all 17 games and finished with good numbers (3,897 passing yards, 28 TDs), but the team posted a 5-12 record as its playoff drought reached 14 years, the longest active dry spell in the four major North American sports, although the NHL’s Buffalo Sabres will match it when their 2024-25 campaign concludes.

Several heads rolled during New York’s disappointing season, as head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas both were fired. Meanwhile, interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich interviewed for the full-time job at season’s end but ultimately became defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. 

The Jets basically gave Rodgers the keys to the kingdom when they acquired him, bringing in a number of his former Green Bay teammates such as receivers Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard and Davante Adams. None of the moves worked out, and the Rodgers era was a complete failure, with New York electing to release him in order for the future Hall-of-Famer to continue his career elsewhere should he wish to do so.

That decision left the new regime of GM Darren Mougey and head coach Aaron Glenn in search of a new starting signal-caller for the 2025 season. They appear to have found one in Justin Fields, who agreed to a two-year, $40 million contract after he spent last year with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

After finishing third in voting for the Heisman Trophy in 2019 and being named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in back-to-back seasons, Fields decided to forego his final two years of eligibility at Ohio State and entered the 2021 NFL Draft. He was selected by the Chicago Bears with the 11th overall pick, but the team was unable to succeed with him under center, going 10-28 in his starts over three campaigns.

There were some impressive moments for Fields, however, with 2022 being his best season. In addition to throwing for 2,242 yards and 17 touchdowns, he finished seventh in the NFL in rushing with 1,143 yards and ran for eight scores.

Chicago traded Fields to Pittsburgh in March 2024, and the dual-threat quarterback guided the Steelers to a 4-2 record while veteran Russell Wilson dealt with a calf injury. But once Wilson was deemed healthy, Fields was relegated to the backup role by head coach Mike Tomlin and took only 15 offensive snaps over the club’s final 12 games, including its 28-14 playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round.

Eager to once again become a starter, Fields decided to move to New York, where he will reunite with Garrett Wilson. The players were teammates at Ohio State for two seasons, connecting for nine touchdowns over that span. 

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Jets will be slightly better with Fields under center in 2025 than they would have been had Rodgers returned for a third season. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says New York has a 24.4% chance to reach the postseason with Fields as opposed to a 21.9% shot to end its playoff drought with Rodgers.

The model believes the Jets also have a better chance to finish atop the AFC East with Fields but doesn’t see them going far should he lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2010.