Iran‘s participation in the 2026 World Cup has been thrown into serious doubt with fewer than 100 days until the tournament begins, putting FIFA in a difficult position as it weighs its options. While no official exclusion has been confirmed, the question of which nation could step in as a replacement is already being raised.
Amid the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, the country’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali directly ruled out the national team’s involvement in the competition. “Under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup,” Donyamali said in an interview on state television.
On the other side of the equation, FIFA president Gianni Infantino has made clear he wants Iran to be part of the tournament, where the team has been drawn into Group G alongside New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt. “We all need an event like the FIFA World Cup to bring people together now more than ever,” Infantino wrote on Instagram following a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.
What do the FIFA regulations say?
Iran has not yet been officially excluded from the competition, though the comments from its sports minister paint a bleak picture. Should a formal withdrawal occur, the matter is addressed in Article 6 of the FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations, specifically subsection 7, titled “Withdrawal, unplayed matches, abandoned matches and replacements.“
Mehdi Taremi of Iran.
The relevant passage reads: “If any Participating Member Association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup 26, FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary. FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association.“
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Which nations could replace Iran at the World Cup?
One natural option would be to turn to the same confederation, in this case Asia. The leading candidate under that criteria would be Iraq, currently scheduled to compete in the intercontinental playoff against the winner of the Bolivia-Suriname tie, who would instead qualify directly. The United Arab Emirates, who lost their playoff berth to Iraq, could then move into the intercontinental playoff bracket.
A second avenue would be through FIFA’s world rankings. Given that the regulations grant the FIFA Council full discretion in such matters, selecting a high-profile nation from outside the region is not off the table. Under that scenario, Italy would be among the most prominent names in the frame, provided the Azzurri fail to secure their spot through the playoffs.
The third and least likely scenario would be for FIFA to simply leave the group as it stands with three teams. Opting against a replacement would create significant complications, as New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt would each play one fewer group stage match than teams in other groups, creating a clear and serious disadvantage when it comes to qualifying as one of the best third-place finishers.
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