Inside the Lines: What’s at stake in Lions vs. Ravens in Week 3 on Monday Night Football?

The Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions both enter their showdown on Monday Night Football in Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season with 1-1 records, bouncing back from season-opening road losses with emphatic victories at home last week. Baltimore cruised past the Cleveland Browns 41-17 in an AFC North clash, while Detroit steamrolled the Chicago Bears 52-21 in a matchup of NFC North rivals.

The Ravens and Lions, who have won their respective divisions each of the last two seasons, find themselves one game back after two weeks. Baltimore trails the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit is behind the Green Bay Packers.

Considering the Bengals will be without quarterback Joe Burrow for most — if not all — of the season due to a toe injury, the chances of the Ravens overtaking them and capturing a third consecutive AFC North title are fairly high. But the likelihood of the Lions passing the Packers is much lower, especially since Green Bay posted a convincing 27-13 win over Detroit in Week 1.

SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team certainly is of that belief. Its projection model has crunched the numbers for Monday’s contest at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, as well as every NFL game for the remainder of the season, and its simulations say as much.

The ITL team’s model currently has the Lions winning their third straight NFC North crown in less than 14% of its simulations. Their chances improve to 19% with a victory over the Ravens but drop to just under 10% with a loss.

Conversely, at this moment, the model says the Ravens win the AFC North more than 74% of the time. Their chances rise to well over 76% if they defeat the Lions and fall to 64% if they lose. Even though the difference for Baltimore is larger than it is for Detroit, the model has Cincinnati finishing atop the division in just over 17% of its simulations with a Week 2 win — a considerably lower figure than the Ravens’ if they fall to the Lions.

The ITL team’s model believes both the Ravens and Lions have a strong chance to qualify for the postseason, regardless of the result of their showdown on Monday Night Football. However, it sees Detroit (just over 58%) having a more difficult time getting in with a loss than Baltimore (nearly 89%).

The Ravens gave up 41 points in their season-opening loss to the Buffalo Bills, squandering a 15-point lead with less than four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. But they held Cleveland under 20 points in Week 2 while Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes, including a pair to second-year wideout Devontez Walker, who now has three career catches, all for TDs.

Baltimore was outgained by the Browns both on the ground and through the air, however, and will need to tighten up defensively on Monday night. Detroit racked up 511 yards of total offense against Chicago last week, with Jared Goff making five touchdown throws while Amon-Ra St. Brown (115) and Jameson Williams (108) both finished with more than 100 receiving yards. After being kept out of the end zone by Green Bay in Week 1, St. Brown hauled in three of Goff’s scoring passes to grab a share of the league lead in TD catches.

Things won’t get much easier for either the Lions or Ravens after their battle, as they both have matchups against Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams remaining on their schedules. Detroit faces the Vikings twice, while Baltimore has two meetings with both the Steelers and Bengals.

The Lions also have contests against the four-time reigning NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the defending  Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles ahead. The Houston Texans, who have won the AFC South title each of the last two years, is on the Ravens’ slate.

The Ravens surely will be looking to emerge victorious on Monday night, but it’s more imperative for the Lions to come away with a win on Monday night when it comes to capturing a division title. Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite in the consensus odds, and the ITL team’s model is leaning toward a cover by the Ravens, projecting them to post a 30-24 victory.