The Bill Belichick era at North Carolina has already been a headline-grabber, but it officially kicks off in just over five weeks with the start of the 2025 season. Belichick arrived in Chapel Hill with a legendary pedigree built during his historic NFL tenure, which includes six Super Bowl titles as coach of the New England Patriots. Yet despite his unmatched résumé, there’s plenty of intrigue and skepticism about whether his success will seamlessly translate to the college game.
Sure, the college level is resembling the NFL more and more with revenue sharing, but there’s always going to be a difference in coaching 18- to 23-year-olds as compared to highly-talented, seasoned individuals in the pros.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the projected win total for UNC this season is 7.5, with heavier juice on the under. Despite a relatively manageable schedule, the Tar Heels aren’t expected to seriously contend in the ACC title race, holding just the 10th-best odds at +4600.
UNC has topped eight regular-season wins only twice since 1998 — the year after Mack Brown’s first stint in Chapel Hill came to an end. Also, the most regular-season wins by a first-year Tar Heels coach is eight: Larry Fedora (2012) and Raymond Wolf (1936).
So, what will Belichick’s record look like in Year 1 at UNC? That remains the big question. Here’s a game-by-game look at how the Tar Heels’ 2025 season could unfold.
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Chip Patterson
Week 1: TCU
A Monday night primetime opener against TCU for Belichick’s college football debut? Seems fitting for a guy who spent three decades making Monday Night Football his own in the NFL. Surely the Tar Heels would prefer a softer launch to the Belichick era. Even TCU coach Sonny Dykes called it “bad scheduling” after opening 2023 with a stunning loss in Deion Sanders’ Colorado debut. The atmosphere in Chapel Hill expects to be unlike anything the program has seen for a football game — but the Horned Frogs could have the edge early, especially with their offense facing a UNC defense likely still working through kinks after an influx of transfers.
Prediction: TCU 31, UNC 24 (0-1)
The rare Power Four road trip to a Group of Five school in Week 2 could be difficult for UNC to get up for, especially if it loses the opener. However, Charlotte expects to be among the worst teams in the FBS this year under new coach Tim Albin. A perfect get-right game for the Tar Heels.
Prediction: UNC 34, Charlotte 17 (1-1)
Belichick gets his first home win in Chapel Hill against what should be the easiest game on the 2025 schedule when Richmond visits. The Spiders are coming off three consecutive FCS playoff appearances under coach Russ Huesman and should be a top-25 team entering the season. Still, barring any unexpected slip-ups or serious injury issues, UNC expects to win this matchup comfortably. The Tar Heels have won 23 straight meetings against FCS opponents since the loss to Furman in 1999.
Prediction: UNC 38, Richmond 10 (2-1)
Week 4: at UCF
Two games against Big 12 opponents before UNC even plays an ACC game? That’s the unusual reality of the Tar Heels’ 2025 schedule, which closes the non-conference slate at UCF. The matchup features a battle of first-year coaches — well, sort of — as Scott Frost squares off against Belichick, who was part of the New York Jets staff that drafted Frost in the third round of the 1998 NFL Draft. Expect a close one in Orlando, but the Tar Heels prevail late.
Prediction: UNC 31, UCF 28 (3-1)
Talk about a welcome to the ACC moment for Belichick. UNC hosts reigning conference champion Clemson in its league opener — a true litmus test for how quickly the Tar Heels will have adapted under their new coach by October. The question isn’t just whether UNC can pull the upset, but whether it can keep things competitive in the first half or if Clemson separates early and reminds everyone just how far the gap remains between the ACC’s elite and the rest. It’s worth noting both teams are coming off a bye, so any edge from extra prep time is even.
Prediction: Clemson 35, UNC 18 (3-2)
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Another bye — the second in three weeks — gives UNC extra time to prepare for its longest road trip of the season: a visit to California. Whether that actually helps remains to be seen. The Golden Bears were hit hard by the transfer portal, including this spring with several starters, including stud running back Jaydn Ott departing. This marks the Tar Heels’ first regular-season trip to the West Coast since a 2018 loss in Berkeley. UNC drops back-to-back games with an 0-2 start against ACC opponents.
Prediction: California 27, UNC 24 (3-3)
Here’s where UNC could build some momentum, facing its second of five straight ACC games against teams positioned among the six with the worst odds to win the conference in 2025, according to FanDuel. If the Tar Heels want to prove they’re at least a middle-tier contender, then taking care of business here is a must. Virginia has made incremental gains in three seasons under coach Tony Elliott, but still lacks talent depth to be a serious threat.
Prediction: UNC 34, Virginia 20 (4-3)
Syracuse won 10 games in Year 1 under coach Fran Brown, but the Orange return just seven starters from that team and lost quarterback Kyle McCord. Despite these changes, Syracuse remains a tough opponent, especially at home where it has gone 15-5 over the past three seasons. UNC will face a challenging environment as it looks to avoid dropping another ACC road game. Give the nod to the Orange.
Prediction: Syracuse 31, UNC 27 (4-4)
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Two years ago, Bill Belichick and Frank Reich were leading NFL teams. Now they’ll meet on opposite sidelines at the college level. Reich, named Stanford’s interim coach in March, went 1-2 against Belichick as a head coach. But he also helped beat Belichick’s Patriots in Super Bowl LII as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator. Stanford is a rebuilding program that should struggle against UNC’s talent advantage.
Projection: UNC 34, Stanford 20 (5-4)
The Tar Heels last lost to Wake Forest in 2019, but have won four consecutive meetings since. This in-state matchup starts a stretch of three rivalry games for UNC to close the regular season — and as we know, these results can drastically reshape how a season is viewed from a fan’s perspective. With a win, Belichick secures bowl eligibility, an important milestone in his debut season.
Projection: UNC 40, Wake Forest 30 (6-4)
Week 13: Duke
UNC has won four of its last five meetings against rival Duke in Chapel Hill. Although the Blue Devils snapped a five-game overall losing streak to the Tar Heels last season, they haven’t won in Kenan Stadium since 2017. Five of the past six UNC coaches defeated Duke in their debut season, with Fedora being the lone exception in 2012. Belichick joins the right side of that trend.
Projection: UNC 30, Duke 21 (7-4)
UNC has dropped seven of its last nine to rival NC State, a series Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren has largely taken control of after losing two of his first three tries. Remember, tensions flared last season when an NC State player planted a flag on the midfield logo in Chapel Hill following a fiery fourth-quarter shootout. So, those returning Tar Heels should have no trouble remembering how last year ended — and why this one matters. But Doeren gets a win over Belichick to keep his streak going.
Projection: NC State 34, UNC 27 (7-5)
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