The Minnesota Vikings were a game away from taking the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year, but a Week 18 blowout loss to the Lions resulted in the team playing in the wild card round, where they again were blown out, this time by the Rams. Sam Darnold had a breakout Pro Bowl season for Minnesota as the team’s starter, but he led the Vikings to just nine points in both of those late-season losses, prompting the team to let Darnold walk to Seattle while handing the reins to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of 2024 with a torn meniscus.
McCarthy will be the biggest X-factor in terms of whether the Vikings can repeat their 2024 success or not. The defense is loaded and was among the best in the NFL last year, and McCarthy has the benefit of throwing to one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the league while also having a top running back and top receiving tight end at his disposal. McCarthy will have to deal with a new-look offensive line, though, as Minnesota revamped its interior, signing Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indianapolis and drafting Donovan Jackson in the first round.
McCarthy has everything he needs to succeed in his first year as a starter, but uncertainty with his play coupled with a loaded NFC North has some sportsbooks lower on Minnesota than you may expect after a 13-win campaign.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Vikings’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Vikings in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Minnesota Vikings season review
- Regular season: 14-3 (Second, NFC North)
- Playoffs: Lost to Rams in Wild Card Round 27-9
- Most wins (14) by non-division winner in NFL history
- Sam Darnold: Most QB wins (14) and fourth-most pass TDs (35) in first season with team all-time
- J.J. McCarthy: First QB drafted in first round to miss entire rookie season due to injury
2025 Minnesota Vikings offseason review
| QB | Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Nick Mullens | Sam Howell | |
| RB | Cam Akers | Jordan Mason | |
| WR | Trent Sherfield, Brandon Powell | Rondale Moore, Tim Jones | Tai Felton (3) |
| TE | Johnny Mundt | Gavin Bartholomew (6) | |
| OL | Garrett Bradbury, Dalton Risner, Ed Ingram, Cam Robinson, David Quessenberry, Dan Feeney | Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Justin Skule | Donovan Jackson (1) |
| DL | Jerry Tillery, Jonathan Bullard | Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave | Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (5) |
| EDGE | Patrick Jones, Jihad Ward | ||
| LB | Kamu Grugier-Hill | Eric Wilson | Kobe King (6) |
| CB | Shaquill Griffin, Stephon Gilmore, Fabian Moreau | Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah, Tavierre Thomas, Kahlef Hailassie, Reddy Steward | |
| S | Camryn Bynum | ||
| STAFF |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +10000 | 6.5 | Over | 14 | L, Wild-card round |
| 2023 | +4000 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC North |
| 2022 | +3600 | 9.5 | Over | 13 | L, Wild-card round |
| 2021 | +4000 | 9 | Under | 8 | 2nd, NFC North |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC North |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Minnesota Vikings futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (+115) | 8.5 (-170) | 9.5 (+115) | 8.5 (-130) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (-140) | 8.5 (+143) | 9.5 (-140) | 8.5 (+110) |
| Win Super Bowl | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 |
| Win NFC | +1200 | +1200 | +1300 | +1200 |
| Win NFC North | +320 | +350 | +360 | +350 |
| Make playoffs | -115 | -105 | +100 | +114 |
| Miss playoffs | -105 | -115 | -120 | -140 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +1300 | +1200 | +1400 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 J.J. McCarthy props
| MVP | +6000 | +5000 | +6000 | +7500 |
| Comeback POY | +800 | +650 | +1000 | +900 |
| Most pass yards | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 |
| Pass yards O/U | 3575.5 | 3575.5 | 3600.5 | 3575.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Vikings
Kevin O’Connell has led some great offenses in his time in Minnesota, and he must have a strong feeling about McCarthy if he was fine with moving on from Darnold after a Pro Bowl campaign that saw him lead the Vikings to 13 wins. Darnold was on a contract year, which could always have played a factor, but the Vikings clearly must feel that McCarthy can replicate that success, if not exceed it.
McCarthy has an excellent receiving corps headlined by Justin Jefferson. The team also reunited with Adam Thielen and has Jordan Addison, who will be suspended for the first three games of the year. Add in T.J. Hockenson at tight end and Aaron Jones at running back and this is one of the best skill position groups in the league.
And the defense is no slouch, either. Brian Flores returns as defensive coordinator, and the Vikings were one of the best and most aggressive defenses in the league last year. The Vikings forced 33 turnovers, which was tied for the best mark in the league with the Steelers. Even if McCarthy shows some early growing pains, Minnesota’s defense should be able to hold its own.
Reasons to fade the Vikings
McCarthy lost valuable reps behind the scenes a year ago while rehabbing from a meniscus injury. The skill group is talented but will be without Jordan Addison due to a suspension. Jefferson, Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson have all dealt with injury issues over the last few seasons, so them staying on the field is far from a guarantee. Minnesota is revamping the offensive line and that could be a problem for McCarthy, who has reportedly looked underwhelming in training camp. While the Vikings did have a great defense, 24 of their 33 takeaways were interceptions and the secondary is undergoing a major shift. That could be problematic, especially if the offense starts the season slow adjusting to a new quarterback.
The biggest reason Minnesota is likely to regress is the schedule. The Vikings were 9-1 in one-possession games in 2024, and they were 5-1 in games decided by three points or less. Those numbers will sure come closer to the mean in 2025, which will lower the win total. Minnesota has an early bye week, which could be beneficial for McCarthy, but the schedule gets tough after that. Eight of Minnesota’s 12 games after the bye come against playoff teams from a year ago.
How to bet the Vikings in 2025
- Under 9.5 wins -140 (DraftKings)
- Miss playoffs -105 (BetMGM)
- Justin Jefferson Over 1200.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars)
The make/miss playoffs market is a great way to take a position on Minnesota if you have a strong feeling on what the Vikings will get out of McCarthy in 2025, as most markets make it around a coin flip. Last year, the Vikings’ win total was 6.5 with McCarthy as the projected starter, and I don’t think Darnold’s career season should move their win total up by three heading into this year. The reworked offensive line will take a little time to come together, and by the time they do, the Vikings will be in the brutal part of their schedule. I’m also not counting on another top-10 scoring season from the Vikings, and when you pair that with what could be an average offense, this doesn’t feel like a playoff team to me.
One player I’m not concerned about regardless of McCarthy’s performance is Justin Jefferson, who has averaged more receiving yards per game than anyone in NFL history despite the Vikings’ quarterback situation over the last few years. Jefferson’s 1,533 yards last year saw his average yards per game actually drop more than 15 yards from each of the previous two seasons, and he may only need to play 12 games to top 1,200 yards. As long as he doesn’t miss more than three games this season, he should get Over his total.
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