The Atlanta Falcons struggled mightily to find Matt Ryan’s replacement after the 2021 season, and they thought they had both a short-term answer in Kirk Cousins, who they inked to a $180 million deal, and a long-term one in Michael Penix Jr., who the team surprisingly selected No. 8 overall in last year’s draft. Cousins was coming off an Achilles tear in 2023 and struggled to return to form. Atlanta then handed the reins to Penix, and while the Falcons dropped two of his three starts, they averaged 32 points per game over that span.
Penix is now penned in as the starter, so the team spent the offseason focusing on improving a defense that had the second-fewest sacks in the NFL last year. The Falcons signed Leonard Floyd to a one-year, $10 million deal — their biggest signing of the offseason on an average annual value basis — before using two first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce. Then, Atlanta selected two defensive backs.
The Falcons did little to improve the offense around Penix heading into 2025, so much of the onus will be on the second-year quarterback playing well and improving the players around him. Penix threw for a lot of yards in his three starts but completed under 60% of his passes with three touchdowns and three picks, and he faced below-average defenses in two of his three starts and the worst defense last year in the other. Atlanta has one of the easiest schedules in the league this year, but Penix will have to step up for the Falcons to make the postseason for the first time since 2017.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Falcons’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Falcons in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Atlanta Falcons season review
- Regular season: 8-9 (Second, NFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Missed playoffs for seventh straight season (tied for second longest active NFL drought)
- Went 2-6 in final 8 games after starting season 6-3
- Bijan Robinson: Third-most rush yards (1,456) in NFL behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry
2025 Atlanta Falcons offseason review
| QB | Easton Stick | ||
| RB | Jashaun Corbin | ||
| WR | Rondale Moore, Phillip Dorsett | Jamal Agnew, David Sills, Makai Polk | |
| TE | Ross Dwelley | Teagan Quitoriano, Feleipe Franks, Nikola Kalinic | |
| OL | Drew Dalman | Matthew Cindic, Killian Zierer | Jack Nelson (7) |
| DL | Grady Jarrett, Eddie Goldman, Demone Harris | Morgan Fox | |
| EDGE | Matthew Judon, Lorenzo Carter, James Smith-Williams | Leonard Floyd | Jalon Walker (1), James Pearce (1) |
| LB | Nathan Landman | Divine Deablo, Caleb Johnson | |
| CB | Antonio Hamilton, Avery Williams, Harrison Hand | Mike Ford, Keith Taylor | Billy Bowman (4) |
| S | Justin Simmons, Richie Grant, Micah Abernathy | Jordan Fuller, Josh Thompson | Xavier Watts (3) |
| STAFF | Jimmy Lake (DC) | Jeff Ulbrich (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +3000 | 9.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, NFC South |
| 2023 | +7000 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC South |
| 2022 | +23000 | 4.5 | Over | 7 | 4th, NFC South |
| 2021 | +8000 | 7.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC South |
| 2020 | +5000 | 7.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, NFC South |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Atlanta Falcons futures odds
| Go Over win total | 8.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-155) | 8.5 (+125) | 8.5 (+125) |
| Go Under win total | 8.5 (+120) | 7.5 (+130) | 8.5 (+115) | 8.5 (+110) |
| Win Super Bowl | +8000 | +7000 | +8000 | +6500 |
| Win NFC | +3000 | +3500 | +3500 | +3000 |
| Win NFC South | +225 | +200 | +235 | +230 |
| Make playoffs | +150 | +145 | +155 | +148 |
| Miss playoffs | -185 | -175 | -190 | -184 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3000 | +2800 | +3000 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Michael Penix Jr. props
| MVP | +6600 | +4500 | +5500 | +6000 |
| Offensive POY | +10000 | +12500 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Most pass yards | +2000 | +2800 | +1800 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3400.5 | 3400.5 | 3500.5 | 3400.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 19.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 18.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Falcons
Penix Jr. looked solid at the end of last season, even if the results didn’t go Atlanta’s way. There’s reason to believe this offense, which has great talent at the skill positions, can be one of the better units in the league in 2025. A full offseason with Penix Jr. as the starter should help.
The NFC South provides four winnable games, and the Falcons have had good success against the Bucs in recent years to believe those two contests are also manageable. The rest of the schedule is fairly easy as well, with only three of the final 13 games being played against playoff teams from a year ago.
Reasons to fade the Falcons
Even though the offense operated well at the end of last season, the opposing defenses Atlanta faced during that stretch offered little resistance. Penix Jr. has to consistently be able to make throws in tight windows, something he rarely had to do at Washington. There’s a lot of turnover on the defensive side of the roster but a lot of inexperienced players are going to take on big roles and that’s usually a recipe for disaster. Floyd is coming off a strong season but will likely be facing double teams and extra help, which means it’ll be up to supporting players to provide a decent pass rush.
How to bet the Falcons in 2025
- Under 7.5 wins +130 (Caesars)
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 3350.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)
The schedule could help Atlanta get to eight wins, but I just don’t know how someone can have a lot of confidence in this team without buying in completely to Michael Penix being a franchise quarterback, which I haven’t yet. Perhaps bringing in Jeff Ulbrich from the Jets and the two rookie edge rushers will suddenly give the Falcons an above-average defense, but projecting that involves another layer of optimism on top of Penix playing like a league-average starting QB or better. The other offseason moves don’t breed a lot of confidence, and I don’t know what on Atlanta’s requires us to just slot them in as better than the Panthers without question, and that’s coming from someone who isn’t sure he’s buying into Carolina either.
The one thing I do expect is for Penix to throw for a bunch of yards between the 20s in an offense that had more than 4,000 passing yards last year. If he stays healthy for all 17 games, he’ll only need 200 per game to get to 3,400 yards. That’s not exactly guaranteed — five QBs started at least 10 games without hitting that average — but I think it’s a reasonable expectation in this offense after we saw what Penix could do at the end of last year. If the Falcons lose the juicy Under play above, I have a lot more confidence in Penix hitting this Over, so consider it a bit of a hedge if you’re not full bought in on Under 7.5 wins.
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