The Indianapolis Colts were hoping to get the league’s next great dual-threat quarterback when they took Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistency have plagued the young QB’s path thus far, and the Colts have had to turn to veterans like Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco to start 19 of the team’s last 34 games. Richardson and head coach Shane Steichen are each entering a critical Year 3 in Indianapolis, and for Richardson, it’s unclear whether he’ll even start as the team now has Daniel Jones on the roster. Steichen helped lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance in 2022, but he and the Colts have yet to take off.
Richardson has completed less than 50% of his passes when he’s played. There’s obviously a case to be made that he’s a young, raw quarterback who’s still developing. But only Tim Tebow and Akili Smith have completed less than 48% of passes while throwing at least 250 attempts. That duo combined to throw 49 more passes over their next two seasons before crashing out of the NFL.
With Jones, he’s looking to revive his career after getting cut by the Giants last year. Jones was the sixth pick in 2019 and went 24-44-1 as a starter, but he has played well at times, namely in 2022 when he had a lowly 1.1% interception rate and led New York to the postseason. If Steichen gets that level of production from either Richardson or Jones — or a combination of both — Indy may finally get over the hump and make the postseason for the first time since 2020.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Colts’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Colts in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Indianapolis Colts season review
- Regular season: 8-9 (Second, AFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Longest playoff drought (four seasons) since seven-year streak from 1988-94
- No. 24 scoring defense (bottom 10 in NFL for third straight season)
- Anthony Richardson: worst comp pct (47.7%) in a season since Tim Tebow in 2011
2025 Indianapolis Colts offseason review
| QB | Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger | Daniel Jones | Riley Leonard (6) |
| RB | Trey Sermon | Khalil Herbert | DJ Giddens (5) |
| WR | Juwann Winfree | Ajou Ajou | |
| TE | Kylen Granson | Tyler Warren (1) | |
| OL | Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, Wesley French | Luke Tenuta | Jalen Travis (4) |
| DL | Raekwon Davis, Taven Bryan | Neville Gallimore, Eric Johnson | Tim Smith (6) |
| EDGE | Dayo Odeyingbo | JT Tuimoloau (2) | |
| LB | E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard | Joe Bachie, Jacob Phillips | |
| CB | Charvarius Ward, Corey Ballentine | Justin Walley (3) | |
| S | Julian Blackmon, Ronnie Harrison, Trevor Denbow | Cam Bynum | Hunter Wohler (7) |
| STAFF | Gus Bradley (DC) | Lou Anarumo (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +8000 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2023 | +12500 | 6.5 | Over | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2022 | +2240 | 9.5 | Under | 4 | 3rd, AFC South |
| 2021 | +3500 | 9 | Push | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9.5 | Over | 11 | L, Wild card round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Indianapolis Colts futures odds
| Go Over win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-115) | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+100) |
| Go Under win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-105) | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-120) |
| Win Super Bowl | +10000 | +10000 | +12000 | +6500 |
| Win AFC | +4000 | +4500 | +5000 | +3200 |
| Win AFC South | +375 | +360 | +370 | +300 |
| Make playoffs | +170 | +200 | +210 | +172 |
| Miss playoffs | -210 | -240 | -260 | -215 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3500 | +6000 | +8000 | +3600 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Jonathan Taylor props
| MVP | +25000 | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 |
| Offensive POY | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +4200 |
| Most rush yards | +850 | +750 | +1000 | +900 |
| Rush yards O/U | 1250.5 | 1250.5 | 1200.5 | 1175.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Colts
Even with Richardson’s uneven play when healthy and leaning on older veteran players as stopgaps at quarterback, Steichen has been able to keep the Colts at a league-average level each of the last two years. If things click for Richardson and he stays healthy, or if Jones takes off in this system, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for the Colts to challenge Houston for the AFC South crown. Whether it’s Richardson or Jones under center, they have a solid group of receivers to throw to. Michael Pittman and Josh Downs make up a very good 1-2 punch, and the team nabbed tight end Tyler Warren in the first round. Plus, Jonathan Taylor, when healthy, is one of the NFL’s best running backs and can carry an offense. The offensive line is solid, too, and with better quarterback play, this unit can be a top-10 offense.
Defensively, the Colts added Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum to the secondary. Both are aiming for bounceback seasons after poor 2024 showings, but they’ve each graded out well in years past and could help boost a secondary that’s been mediocre over the last few years. The pass rush has pieces in place like news second-round edge rusher JT Tuimoloau. The Colts also made a change at defensive coordinator, which could help as Gus Bradley has long seemed past his prime running an NFL defense.
Reasons to fade the Colts
The Colts have one of the lowest quarterback floors in the NFL in 2025. If neither Richardson nor Jones click for Steichen and Co., that unit may be one of the five worst groups in the league. Even with talent on the coaching staff and across the rest of the roster, bottom-five quarterback play is simply too much to overcome. Taylor needs to stay healthy to take pressure off the passing game, but he’s had just one fully healthy season in five NFL campaigns. The Colts also have a new-look offensive line that may not be able to handle a full season’s worth of work.
New defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo comes from Cincinnati, and while he should be an improvement from Bradley running the Colts defense, his defenses were not very good over the last two years, which included finishing just 25th in scoring last season. If the Colts are basically the same as they were last year on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to see them improving in a division that has gotten better around them with top-two draft picks Cam Ward and Travis Hunter on division rivals.
How to bet the Colts in 2025
- Over 7.5 wins +100 (FanDuel)
- Tyler Warren Under 500.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)
I have the Colts as right around a 7.5-win team this year, and while we have an Under 7.5 at +105 available as well, I’m more inclined to believe in Steichen and play the Over with the expectation that his offense is going to improve in one of two ways: either Anthony Richardson is going to play well enough to keep the starting job, or Daniel Jones will be an improvement over what Steichen has gotten from the QB position the last two years. Jones has struggled the last two years as well but was in a much worse situation, especially in terms of the players tasked with protecting him. If Jones ends up the Week 1 starter, I may sprinkle a little bit on the Colts to win the division at +350 or higher, as I think they’ll have a better shot than those odds imply with the Texans potentially taking a step back.
Colts tight ends collectively received 75 targets last year, which I think is on the high end of what we should expect, as that includes Joe Flacco throwing at least 35 passes in five of his six starts. That’s not how the offense is designed to operate, and no matter which quarterback is under center, we shouldn’t expect them to come close to throwing 35 passes in most games. Only seven of the 37 tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000 reached 500 yards as rookies, and four of them had at least 110 targets as rookies. The others had 91 (Dalton Kincaid), 78 (Dustin Keller) and 66 (Noah Fant). I don’t see Warren even getting to Fant’s number of targets as a rookie, and if he does, he’ll need to have a similarly high yards per reception figure (14.1 for Fant) to top 500 yards.
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