The Buffalo Bills enter the 2025 season with Super Bowl expectations, and most sportsbooks have the team near the top of their title odds ladders. The Bills have won the AFC East five years in a row and are heavy favorites to capture a sixth straight division crown this season but the ultimate goal is to get to the last game of the season. Buffalo has been unable to do that, losing twice in the AFC Championship Game and three times in the Divisional Round over the last five seasons.
One big reason the Bills are expected to be contenders is the presence of quarterback Josh Allen, who is coming off a successful 2024 season where he captured his first MVP award. Allen is a strong contender to repeat as MVP at multiple sportsbooks. Head coach Sean McDermott is back as well, looking to win double-digit games for a seventh straight year.
The Bills didn’t make significant changes to a roster that made it to the AFC Championship Game last year before losing to the rival Chiefs once again in the postseason. It was Buffalo’s fourth playoff loss to Kansas City in the last five seasons. Joey Bosa replaces Von Miller at edge rusher, while Larry Ogunjobi and multiple draft picks replenish the interior of the defensive line. First-round pick Maxwell Hairston replaces Rasul Douglas at cornerback, while Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore take the spots of Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins on the receiving corps.
We’re going to take a look at the Bills’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting the Bills in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Buffalo Bills season review
- Regular season: 13-4 (AFC East champions)
- Playoffs: Lost AFC Championship Game at Chiefs 32-29
- Tied most wins in a season in team history including playoffs (15)
- Most regular season wins (61) in a five-season span without Super Bowl trip all-time
- Only team since 1960 to go entire regular season and postseason with losing turnover battle
2025 Buffalo Bills offseason review
| QB | |||
| RB | |||
| WR | Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins | Josh Palmer, Elijah Moore | Kaden Prather (7) |
| TE | Quintin Morris | Jackson Hawes (5) | |
| OL | Will Clapp | Kendrick Green | Chase Lundt (6) |
| DL | Jordan Phillips, Quinton Jefferson, Austin Johnson | Larry Ogunjobi | T.J. Sanders (2), Deone Walker (4) |
| EDGE | Von Miller, Casey Toohill, Dawuane Smoot | Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht | Landon Jackson (3) |
| LB | Shaq Thompson | ||
| CB | Rasul Douglas, Kaiir Elam | Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson | Maxwell Hairston (1), Jordan Hancock (5), Dorian Strong (6) |
| S | Darrick Forrest | ||
| STAFF | Matthew Smiley (ST) | Chris Tabor (ST) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +1600 | 10 | Over | 13 | L, AFC Championship |
| 2023 | +900 | 10.5 | Over | 11 | L, Divisional round |
| 2022 | +600 | 11.5 | Over | 13 | L, Divisional round |
| 2021 | +1100 | 11.5 | Under | 11 | L, Divisional round |
| 2020 | +3000 | 9 | Over | 13 | L, AFC Championship |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Buffalo Bills futures odds
| Go Over win total | 12.5 (+120) | 12.5 (+132) | 12.5 (+125) | 12.5 (+115) |
| Go Under win total | 12.5 (-145) | 12.5 (-155) | 12.5 (+145) | 12.5 (-135) |
| Win Super Bowl | +700 | +625 | +600 | +700 |
| Win AFC | +340 | +300 | +330 | +360 |
| Win AFC East | -325 | -330 | -310 | -280 |
| Make playoffs | -750 | -800 | -750 | -800 |
| Miss playoffs | +525 | +550 | +500 | +520 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +275 | +200 | +190 | +260 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Josh Allen props
| MVP | +600 | +600 | +550 | +600 |
| Offensive POY | +3500 | +3500 | +4000 | +6000 |
| Most pass yards | +1600 | +1500 | +1500 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3750.5 | 3800.5 | 3750.5 | 3775.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 27.5 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 |
| Rush yards O/U | 500.5 | 475.5 | 500.5 | 500.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Bills
Allen appears to be ready to take the next leap after winning his first MVP award, and he’s been one of the most durable players in the league. The Bills should get better production from their skill players, who have one more year under their belt with the star quarterback. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are two players who are solid candidates to break out. On the defensive side of the ball, McDermott has produced one of the best scoring units over his tenure. The Bills had 32 takeaways a year ago defensively, one behind both the Vikings and Steelers who were tied for first with 33. As long as Allen stays healthy, the Bills have a clear path to the division title and one of the top seeds in the AFC.
Reasons to fade the Bills
The obvious concern would be Allen’s health, which has been stellar so far but is always a bit of a question mark given his style of play. The Bills don’t have a top-end receiver and while Coleman seems ready to take that mantle, he’s a second-year player coming off an inconsistent rookie season. Buffalo’s defense has been incredibly successful, though there’s turnover on the defensive line and secondary which could take some time to get used to. The Bills are unlikely to have a +32 turnover margin again, even though they’ll be in the running for the best mark in the league. If Allen’s 1.2% interception rate creeps even slightly up, Buffalo could have some trouble maintaining its excellent turnover differential.
There’s a huge six-game stretch which begins two weeks after the bye starting with the Chiefs. There’s three road games here against teams which made the playoffs in at least one of the last two seasons. The Bills would likely have to go at least 4-2 in this stretch to maintain positioning for the No. 1 seed in the AFC given the other teams contending for that spot.
How to bet the Bills in 2025
- AFC No. 1 seed +275 (BetMGM)
- Josh Allen Under 3775.5 passing yards (FanDuel)
If leaning into a positive outcome for the Bills, I would take advantage of the scheduling edge they have over the other top contenders in the AFC and back them to be the No. 1 seed in the conference. We’re giving up some value by playing this market rather than taking them to win the AFC outright, but I am willing to do so after they’ve continued to run into a brick wall when facing the Chiefs and Bengals in the postseason.
I also like backing Allen to finish Under his passing total with no significant upgrades to his passing-game weapons. We saw the Bills play more ball control last year, which led to the offense finishing 26th in total pass attempts while Allen had his lowest passing total since 2019. He failed to top this line of 3775.5 even with playing 17 games and being named league MVP, so why would the formula change for Buffalo? I’d be surprised if he got near 4,000 yards with the Bills favored in every game even if he’s again able to stay healthy the entire season.
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