The New England Patriots lost Tom Brady five offseasons ago and still haven’t recovered. After a few years as a midrange team, the bottom has fallen out the last two seasons. Jerod Mayo, Bill Belichick’s heir apparent, lasted just one year in charge as the Patriots finished with a top-four draft pick for the second straight season. But look beyond the record, and there are reasons to be excited about the Patriots moving forward.
It starts at quarterback, where 2024 first-round pick Drake Maye looked the part in his first action under center, completing two-thirds of his passes and doing plenty of damage with his legs. Granted, it didn’t translate into winning games—in fact, two of Maye’s three wins credited as a starter came in games where he played less than 30% of the offensive snaps—but there was enough to breed optimism if a credible supporting unit could be built around the potential franchise quarterback.
On that front, the Patriots went to work this offseason in a big way, adding three receivers to the mix in veterans Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins plus third-round pick Kyle Williams, while bringing in new starters at both tackle positions (including No. 4 overall pick Will Campbell) and center. The defense added four free agents with average annual values above $10 million, including $104 million man Milton Williams up front. Tasked with making it all work is former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel, who went 54-45 in seven years as head coach of the Titans while often exceeding expectations on a week-to-week and even year-to-year basis.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Patriots’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Patriots in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 New England Patriots season review
- Regular season: 4-13 (Last, AFC East)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Longest playoff drought (three seasons) since seven-year drought from 1987-93
- Back-to-back seasons with 13+ losses for first time in franchise history
- Drake Maye: Fifth-highest completion percentage by rookie all-time (min. 200 attempts)
2025 New England Patriots offseason review
| QB | Jacoby Brissett, Joe Milton | Joshua Dobbs | |
| RB | JaMycal Hasty | Trayveon Williams | TreVeyon Henderson (2) |
| WR | Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins | Kyle Williams (3) | |
| TE | |||
| OL | David Andrews | Morgan Moses, Garrett Bradbury | Will Campbell (1), Jared Wilson (3), Marcus Bryant (7) |
| DL | Deatrich Wise, Daniel Ekuale | Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, Isaiah Iton | Joshua Farmer (4) |
| EDGE | Oshane Ximines | Harold Landry, K’Lavon Chaisson | Bradyn Swinson (5) |
| LB | Ja’Whaun Bentley | Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens | |
| CB | Jonathan Jones | Carlton Davis | Craig Woodson (4) |
| S | Marcus Epps | ||
| STAFF | Jerod Mayo (HC), Alex Van Pelt (OC), DeMarcus Covington (DC) | Mike Vrabel (HC), Josh McDaniels (OC), Terrell Williams (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +30000 | 4.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, AFC East |
| 2023 | +6000 | 7.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, AFC East |
| 2022 | +4200 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 3rd, AFC East |
| 2021 | +3000 | 9.5 | Over | 10 | 2nd, AFC East |
| 2020 | +4000 | 9 | Under | 7 | 3rd, AFC East |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 New England Patriots futures odds
| Go Over win total | 8.5 (-115) | 8.5 (+100) | 8.5 (-120) | 7.5 (-160) |
| Go Under win total | 8.5 (-105) | 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (+100) | 7.5 (+135) |
| Win Super Bowl | +6600 | +6000 | +6000 | +6500 |
| Win AFC | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 | +2900 |
| Win AFC East | +600 | +625 | +475 | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +155 | +140 | +130 | +148 |
| Miss playoffs | -190 | -170 | -175 | -184 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +2800 | +2000 | +1900 | +2700 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Drake Maye props
| MVP | +6600 | +6000 | +4500 | +6000 |
| Offensive POY | +15000 | +12500 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Most pass yards | +5000 | +5000 | +4900 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3250.5 | 3250.5 | 3275.5 | |
| Pass TDs O/U | 19.5 | 19.5 | ||
| Rush yards O/U | 425.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Patriots
Two years ago, the Patriots were transitioning away from Bill Belichick as steward of the franchise and turning the page on Mac Jones at quarterback. Now, they have one of the better QB-coach duos in the league in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. The former played well in a bad situation last year, and the latter has shown the ability to maximize wins in his coaching career despite featuring Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis at quarterback.
These Patriots get to play one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2025, facing the Raiders, Titans and Giants in addition to the NFC North and the rest of the AFC East, which should give Vrabel the opportunity to show he still has the magic to pull out close games when needed and outcoach more limited teams on the schedule. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture a 10-win season and playoff berth in Vrabel’s first season if the new-look roster can gel quickly.
Reasons to fade the Patriots
Of course, all those changes made this offseason should take time to click, as an offensive line needs to learn how to play together and a young quarterback will likely need time to get comfortable with a new offensive coordinator. If it takes until midseason for the offense to get in rhythm, it’ll be just in time for the tougher part of the schedule, featuring road matchups against the Buccaneers, Bengals and Ravens in addition to their home spot against the Bills.
Another good reason to fade the Pats is the enormous amount of positive direction already baked into their projection, with an over/under of 8.5 wins following back-to-back four-win seasons. The schedule can only do so much, and some of those easy-looking opponents on the schedule are likely going to get better as well. While 10 wins sounds reasonable for those thinking positively, it also may be about the ceiling for this team in Year 1 of Vrabel.
How to bet the Patriots in 2025
- Under 8.5 wins +100 (DraftKings)
- Drake Maye Over 425.5 rushing yards -115 (Caesars)
I’m willing to fade the aggressive projections for the Patriots despite their schedule and back Under for their win total. Josh McDaniels has had a lot of success as an offensive coordinator, but of course much of that was tied to Tom Brady. In seven seasons where McDaniels was a head coach or offensive coordinator, either after Brady’s departure from New England or when he was with other teams, his offenses finished 19th or worse in points scored five times. Getting this Patriots offense even to that mid-range level with the supporting cast around Maye will be a tall task, so the defense is going to need even more improvement to push this team to a winning record. I see more downside for this team than upside, and if that downside comes to pass, I’ll be more interested in playing their optimistic outcomes in 2026 as a post-hype sleeper.
Where Maye should continue to have success is on the ground, especially if the new-look offensive line is still allowing pressure and leaving Maye to scramble rather than force the ball to a set of pass-catchers that is still likely without a reliable No. 1 option. Maye only attempted 338 of the Patriots’ 529 pass attempts last year, which works out to around 64% of the workload. He rushed for 421 yards alongside that workload, which is already right at the line Caesars is offering. If he’s on the field more this year, he should get Over this total unless McDaniels tries to remove his rushing ability from the offense, which would be counterintuitive to the success the market is expecting from this team.
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