Despite NC State’s late-season swoon, the Wolfpack currently remain in NCAA Tournament at-large territory under first-year coach Will Wade entering Saturday’s finale against Stanford. Two years removed from the program’s first Final Four in four decades, NC State projects as a No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region with a win over the Cardinal, which would put the Wolfpack at 20-11 overall entering next week’s ACC Tournament.
NC State won nine of its first 11 games in ACC play before a lopsided loss to Louisville on Feb. 9 initiated concern. Four setbacks have followed in five opportunities since, leading Wade to take his team to task for lacking defensive intensity down the stretch.
The Wolfpack is 1-5 across its last six games, including a 118-77 shellacking at Louisville, a 90-61 beatdown at Virginia, and a 93-64 home defeat vs. Duke, a game that was over in the first half. The average margin of defeat in NC State’s last five losses is 21.2 points.
“We’re in one-game seasons from here on out,” Wade said after Monday night’s blowout loss to top-ranked Duke. “I mean, the Stanford game is huge for us. Game like tonight, obviously, you don’t want to lose by 30. But look, tonight’s a tough task. The problems are having a seven-point (lead) with Miami … having the seven-point lead with 2.5 minutes (left) at Notre Dame. Like, those are the problems.”
NC State’s lone win over its current six-game struggle that has caused metrics to plummet was an 82-58 victory against North Carolina on Feb. 17. Tar Heels starters Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesar did not play in that one, and the Wolfpack took advantage for their second win of the season over a ranked opponent.
NC State sits 33rd in NET rating with a 5-8 record against Quad 1 competition and a 7-3 mark against Quad 2, while the Wolfpack’s WAB (Wins Above Bubble) rating is 1.63, which currently ranks 40th nationally. WAB is a new factor in the NCAA Tournament committee’s selection process and measures what a team has accomplished against its schedule vs. what the average bubble team would have accomplished against the same slate.
In all, there are five additional, computer-based metrics the committee takes into consideration — KenPom, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Torvik, KPI and ESPN’s Strength of Record.
In terms of ACC Tournament seeding, NC State is likely heading toward the No. 6 or 7 seed with a win over Stanford, meaning the Wolfpack would play on March 11 in Charlotte. NC State’s best possible seed in the conference tournament is No. 5 by virtue of finishing 11-7 overall and in a tie with Clemson and Louisville.
The Wolfpack holds the tiebreaker over both based on a head-to-head win over the Tigers and a better record against California and SMU (2-0) than the Cardinals. At any rate, a win this weekend and one next week in the conference tournament should strengthen NC State’s metrics and solidify an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.
“We’re not there right now, and we’ve got to get there,” Wade said this week. “We’ve got to get there quick. This program deserves it. Our fans deserve it, and we’re going to work extremely hard to get there and get there fast. But we’re not there right now. We’ve got to punch in our weight class better than we have. That’s been the most disappointing thing for me.
“Everywhere we’ve been, we’ve lost games, but we very rarely lost the ones we were supposed to win. Very rarely we’ve lost, in my opinion, four different games that we were supposed to win. That turns a good season into an okay season, a great season into a good season.”
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