According to the oddsmakers, we are down three players with a realistic chance to win the Heisman Trophy. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the betting favorite at +115, followed by Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+140) and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (+300).
After the top three is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at a distant +1000. So barring something crazy, it will likely be either Mendoza, Sayin or Pavia hoisting the 2025 Heisman Trophy on Dec. 13.
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Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 13 (odds via Caesars)
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Fernando Mendoza, Indiana QB (+115)
In a year when no one really ran away as the overwhelming favorite, Mendoza has been the most consistent. The Indiana quarterback has been one of the favorites since the Hoosiers blasted Illinois 63-10 on Sept. 20.
You can make an argument for Sayin and Pavia. However, I think Mendoza will win the Heisman. Not only did he have a sensational season throwing 32 touchdowns and only five interceptions while leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated season, Indiana is also a great story.
Curt Cignetti took over one of the worst programs in college football and turned them into a serious title contender in two years. That could resonate with voters. I expect it to be close, but Mendoza edges out Sayin and Pavia.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB (+140)
A strong case can be made for Sayin to win the Heisman. The sophomore started his first game versus Texas back in August as a bit of an unknown. All he did was throw for over 3,000 yards, 30 touchdowns, and lead Ohio State to an undefeated regular season.
The one thing going against Sayin though is I thought he needed to have a big game against Michigan with all the voters watching to nail down the award. Sayin played well throwing for 233 yards and three touchdowns, although because the Buckeyes jumped out to a big lead on a windy day, they didn’t need to rely on him as much. In other words, there was no signature moment like Mendoza had against Penn State.
It’s going to be razor close between Mendoza and Sayin but I think the Ohio State quarterback comes up just short.
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt QB (+300)
I love Pavia and if I had a vote, he might get it. I think what he has done helping Vanderbilt become a borderline College Football Playoff team is amazing. He also plays with the kind of moxie that some voters like, including striking the Heisman pose after a touchdown against Tennessee.
The problem for Pavia is Vanderbilt lost its two toughest games of the season against Alabama and Texas. He really needed to beat one of those teams to have a realistic shot at winning the award. Pavia will get invited to New York City but a third place finish is the likely outcome.
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