Giannis Antetokounmpo says he wants to break LeBron James’ NBA scoring record

Giannis Antetokounmpo made a bold claim Saturday night after becoming the sixth-youngest player in NBA history to reach 21,000 career points. The two-time league MVP tallied 29 points in a 116-99 win over the Brooklyn Nets, bringing his point total to 21,002. Only nine active players have reached that milestone, but Antetokounmpo is reaching for a far higher goal before he retires.

The NBA champion shared that he hopes to break LeBron James’ scoring record before it’s all said and done.

“I think to get to the top of the scoring list is not six, seven, eight years, I think it’s — in my opinion — four years away,” Antetokounmpo said. “Four, five years away. I think I’m going to be 35 years old sitting in this chair having a discussion of I am the top [of the all-time scoring list]. I would have talked that into existence. And not just talked it into existence, because I believe I’m going to do it. It’s something that I want to do. But that’s too far away. Four, five years from now I might have four other kids. You know, my wife might have left me, who knows four, five years from now.” 

In Year 13, Antetokounmpo is about halfway to James’ record of 42,250 career points and counting. But how long would it actually take the Greek Freak to surpass James? By his own account, he thinks four to five years, but that seems like a lofty goal, even for someone as dominant as he is.

If Antetokounmpo wanted to reach James’ current point total in the next few years, he’d have to average an incredibly unrealistic 64.7 points over the next four years, or 51.8 points over five years. And that’s assuming he’s playing all 82 games in each of those seasons, which is also highly unlikely. Unless he’s planning on scoring every single point for the Bucks or whichever team he’s on in five year’s time, that’s not happening. Surely Antetokounmpo wasn’t thinking about the logistics of actually accomplishing that goal in the next five years, so let’s break down when he could realistically reach that number.

This is all assuming that Antetokounmpo stays relatively healthy into his 30s, and given he’s averaged 67.2 games played per season over his 13 years, his body shouldn’t entirely break down given the health he’s experienced so far. Antetokounmpo is probably the closest thing we have to James in regards to minimal health issues over their careers, as LeBron is only now starting to witness the effects of Father Time in the last couple seasons.

So let’s say Antetokounmpo continues to average 67 games over the rest of his career. He needs to score 21,249 points to break James’ current record. Realistically, Antetokounmpo could reach that number in 10 years, by averaging 31.7 points a game.

Giannis’ 10-year scoring plan

Let’s take a look at that possibility over an 11-year span. He’d need to average 28.8 points over 11 years to pass James. That seems like a more doable timeframe, especially since his career average is 24 points per game.

Giannis’ 11-year scoring plan

The asterisk to all of this, though, is that 10 or 11 years from now, Antetokounmpo would be 41 or 42 years old. So unless he’s planning on playing into his 40s like James, the thought of passing the scoring record may be out of reach. There’s also the fact that James is still playing, and with every point he scores the more distance he puts between him and whoever else wants to break his record.

It’s not impossible for Antetokounmpo, and given he’s averaged over 30 points in each of the last four years, he’s on the trajectory to reach 30,000 points in at least the next five years. But breaking James’ record will come down to health and how long Antetokounmpo wants to play. We could very well see him play into his 40s like James because he keeps himself in great physical shape to do so. And if this is the goal he’s set out for himself before he hangs it up, then perhaps we will see him accomplish it. But for now, it seems like something that might be at bit out of reach for the future Hall of Famer.