Home runs are one of the few statistics Aaron Judge doesn’t lead baseball in, but he’s not far from the top spot after blasting two home runs on Sunday to improve his total to 23, tied for the second-most in the MLB. He leads baseball in categories such as batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and runs scored during his historic four-year run and has been a moneymaker for those playing MLB player props on betting sites all year long. The model projects that to continue for Tuesday MLB player prop bets, making Judge to go Over his number of 1.5 total bases against the Royals in a game with a total of 8.5 as one of its best bets on Tuesday.
Targeting total bases props is a popular way to attack MLB betting with a full Tuesday night slate of games available for online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest FanDuel promo code.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 12 of the 2025 MLB season on a 27-23 run on top-rated MLB sides picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks, returning more than 35 units of profit over the past two months. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB player props on Tuesday.
Best Tuesday total bases MLB player prop picks:
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-135)
- Jordan Beck Under 1.5 total bases (-120)
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-135)
Judge has at least one extra-base hit in three of his last four games to go Over this total in one swing and he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games overall, averaging 3.4 total bases in those contests. He had three hits in two of the three games against the Red Sox in New York’s previous series heading into a matchup against the Royals on Tuesday. Kansas City is starting left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron, who has been incredible in his rookie season with a 0.85 ERA over five starts, but Judge has been equally impressive and hitting .422 with a 1.537 OPS against LHP this season.
Judge’s metrics are equally as impressive as his traditional statistics, as he has the best barrel percentage in baseball with an average exit velocity better than 99% of the sport and a hard-hit rate better than 98% of baseball. He has seven home runs in 45 at-bats (one in every 6.4 at-bats) against LHP this season, as the model projects Judge for 2.7 total bases on Tuesday. bet365 is offering the best odds at -135 odds, and with a bet365 promo code, new users can receive $150 in bonus bets on their first $5 bet, win or lose.
Jordan Beck Under 1.5 total bases (-120)
Beck is seeing the ball well lately as he’s gone Over this total in four of his last five games, but he went Under this number in seven straight games before that stretch, making the Under 8-4 over his last 12 contests. Beck is hitting .264 this year after batting .188 in 55 games as a rookie last season. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are well below league average, ranking worse than 67% and 76% of the sport in the two metrics, respectively.
The Rockies face the Giants, who are the hottest team in baseball with a league-high five-game winning streak to improve to 38-28 overall this season. RHP Kyle Harrison makes the start, and he has a 4.34 ERA this season, including allowing two runs or fewer in two of his last three starts. The Giants have the No. 1 bullpen ERA (2.32) in baseball and the model projects Beck for 1.0 total bases on Tuesday. DraftKings Sportsbook is offereing the best odds at -120 and a DraftKings promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
The Mets shortstop went Over this total in two of three games against the Rockies, despite not starting one of the contests he hit the Over. Lindor’s weekend was highlighted by a 3-for-5 performance on Saturday, and he’s gone Over this total in six of his last nine games. The model projects Lindor for 2.0 total bases on Tuesday and he’s averaging 2.0 total bases per game this season, as the model loves the value of playing Lindor at plus-money odds above his projection and season average.
The Mets return to New York for a three-game series against the Nationals after sweeping the Rockies in Colorado as they are 12-3 over their last 15 games. Lindor has been a key reason for the team’s success, hitting .304 with a .919 OPS during that span. bet365 is offering the best odds on this play as well, with other sportsbook having Lindor Over 1.5 total bases priced at +115 odds or worse.
Want more total bases picks for Tuesday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB total bases picks for some popular props on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 148-77 (+2064.75) roll on his last 225 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets for Tuesday’s MLB schedule, and be sure to see Jacob Fetner’s and the Inside the Lines team’s best bets for Tuesday.
Finally, SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora, who is 4-1-1 (+300) over his last six MLB game prop picks, has an MLB game prop locked in for Tuesday. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from an expert who’s up three units over his last six MLB game props bets.
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