The Yankees are expecting superstar Aaron Judge to return to the lineup on Tuesday when New York takes on the Texas Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. Judge’s return will be a welcome sight for a Yankees team that has lost four straight games, including an 8-5 decision at Texas on Monday. Judge still leads the MLB with a .342 batting average and ranks fourth in the majors with 37 home runs. Seattle’s Cal Raleigh leads the league with 42 homers, and he is +250 to add to that total in the Tuesday MLB odds. Raleigh, who has nine strikeouts over his last three games, leads the Mariners against the Chicago White Sox at 9:40 p.m. ET.
SportsLine’s model is backing Raleigh to hit a home run with its Tuesday MLB prop picks, along with Jose Ramirez to steal a base (+310) and Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore to record fewer than 7.5 strikeouts (-150). When it comes to MLB betting, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of the best sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 56 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Tuesday MLB player prop picks:
Cal Raleigh, Mariners, over 0.5 home runs (+250)
Raleigh leads the MLB with 42 home runs this season, and he gets a mouthwatering matchup against White Sox starter Davis Martin on Tuesday. Martin is 3-8 on the season and has given up 12 homers in 2025, including at least one home run in four of his last six starts. The model has Raleigh’s HR odds at +213, making this a valuable line to target. You can bet this prop at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses:
Jose Ramirez, Guardians, over 0.5 stolen bases (+310)
Ramirez has recorded nine hits over his past six games, consistently giving himself the opportunity to steal a base. The 32-year-old has logged 32 stolen bases this season, which ranks third in the MLB, and he has a good chance of getting on base against Mets starter Clay Holmes on Tuesday. Holmes has given up 20 hits over his last three contests, so the model has Ramirez’s stolen base odds at +241. This prop is available at DraftKings, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a wager of $5 or more, in addition to more than $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV:
MacKenzie Gore, Nationals, under 7.5 strikeouts (-150)
Gore has racked up 148 strikeouts this season, the ninth-most in the majors. However, he’s finished with seven or fewer strikeouts in 11 consecutive starts. He’s finished with four or fewer strikeouts in four straight, so the model has value on this prop given his projected strikeout total of 6.15. This prop is available at DraftKings, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a wager of $5 or more, in addition to more than $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV:
MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
For example, Kerry Carpenter and Vlad Guerrero Jr. yesterday (8/4) were both priced by our model at +367. Carpenter was the better value with Fanatics offering +367 vs Guerrero’s best price of just +325 at bet365. Carpenter justified our faith with a dinger, Vlad did not. Similarly, we had both Sonny Gray and Jesus Luzardo projected for 6.24 strikeouts but at o5.5 and -114 on FanDuel we like Gray’s over much more than Luzardo’s u6.5 at -104. Gray had 8 Ks, Luzardo 7 so again, the Inside the Lines system worked like a charm.
The big name in today’s cheat sheet is Aaron Judge who should be activated from the IL. Our model’s line of +264 is virtually identical to the best Yes price which is +267 at bet365.
RANK | HR | SB | K |
8/5 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
1 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.319 | +213 | Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.301 | +232 | Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 6.7 |
2 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.299 | +234 | Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.297 | +237 | Logan Webb (SF) | 6.24 |
3 | Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.275 | +264 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.293 | +241 | MacKenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.15 |
4 | Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.269 | +272 | Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.29 | +245 | Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.14 |
5 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.254 | +294 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.289 | +246 | Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) | 6.1 |
6 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.253 | +295 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.278 | +260 | Will Warren (NYY) | 5.77 |
7 | Riley Greene (DET) | 0.251 | +298 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.278 | +260 | Zebby Matthews (MIN) | 5.61 |
8 | Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.246 | +307 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.261 | +283 | Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.58 |
9 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.245 | +308 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.248 | +303 | Bryan Woo (SEA) | 5.46 |
10 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.242 | +313 | Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.24 | +317 | Dean Kremer (BAL) | 5.13 |
11 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.233 | +329 | Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.234 | +327 | Joey Wentz (ATL) | 5.04 |
12 | Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.222 | +350 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.228 | +339 | Ryan Bergert (KC) | 4.91 |
13 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.221 | +352 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.224 | +346 | Jose Berrios (TOR) | 4.81 |
14 | Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.218 | +359 | Cedric Mullins (NYM) | 0.219 | +357 | Mike Burrows (PIT) | 4.75 |
15 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.217 | +361 | David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.203 | +393 | Luis Severino (ATH) | 4.7 |
16 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.217 | +361 | Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.202 | +395 | Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 4.68 |
17 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.212 | +372 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.202 | +395 | Jose Soriano (LAA) | 4.68 |
18 | James Wood (WAS) | 0.212 | +372 | Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.195 | +413 | Yu Darvish (SD) | 4.67 |
19 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.21 | +376 | Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.194 | +415 | Emmet Sheehan (LAD) | 4.62 |
20 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.209 | +378 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.192 | +421 | Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.51 |
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB props for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 79-70-1 roll (+1512) on MLB picks.
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