The Monday MLB schedule features an intriguing pitching matchup between Pirates starter Johan Oviedo and Giants starter Justin Verlander. Oviedo is returning after being sidelined for nearly two years due to injury, while Verlander is starting after being the subject of many trade rumors in the lead-up to the deadline. One player Verlander will face is Pirates star Oneil Cruz, who has 18 home runs and 48 RBI this season. Cruz also has 34 stolen bases, and he is +320 to steal a base in the Monday MLB odds.
SportsLine’s model likes Cruz to steal a base with its Monday MLB prop picks, along with Christian Yelich to homer (+625) and Casey Mize to record more than 4.5 strikeouts (+100). When it comes to MLB betting, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 56 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Monday MLB player prop picks:
Christian Yelich, Brewers, over 0.5 home runs (+625)
Yelich has a team-high 21 home runs this season, with his latest homer coming against Washington on Saturday. He also went yard against the Cubs last week, and he has seven hits in his last three games. Yelich is facing newly acquired Braves pitcher Erick Fedde, who is 3-11 with a 5.33 ERA this season. The model has Yelich’s HR odds at +346, making this a valuable line to target. You can bet this prop at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses.
Oneil Cruz, Pirates, over 0.5 stolen bases (+320)
Cruz is known for his power, but his speed is arguably just as impressive. He has swiped 34 bags on 38 attempts this season, and he has a good chance of getting on base against Verlander on Monday. The veteran pitcher has a 1-8 record and a 4.53 ERA, so the model has Cruz’s stolen base odds at +229. This prop is available at bet365, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly.
Casey Mize, Tigers, over 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
The American League All-Star pitcher is motivated to bounce back on Monday after three consecutive subpar outings. He has not pitched more than four innings in three straight starts, but he still has a 9-4 record and a 3.43 ERA this season. Mize has 84 strikeouts in 18 starts, and he has gone over this line in nine starts. He has also finished with four strikeouts in five other outings, so the model has value on this prop given his projected strikeout total of 5.0.
MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
For example, Kerry Carpenter and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have identical projections and we’d price YES at +367 for both. If deciding between the two look for the higher line. Kerry Carpenter’s best payout as we publish is +410 on Fanatics while Vlad Guerrero’s best line is just +325 at bet365. So there’s no comparison in terms of who is the better betting value (Carpenter) despite the two being dead even in terms of HR chances tonight.
We have a similar situation going on with Sonny Gray and Jesus Luzardo in their starts. Both are projected for 6.24 strikeouts. You can get over 5.5 at -114 (53.2%) on Fanduel for Sonny Gray. For Luzardo our lean is on Under 6.5 at -104 (51%) on FanDuel. The model would take Gray o5.5 over Luzardo u6.5 Ks.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 8/4 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.293 | +241 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.338 | +196 | Tyler Glasnow (LAD) | 6.28 |
| 2 | Riley Greene (DET) | 0.281 | +256 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.304 | +229 | Sonny Gray (STL) | 6.24 |
| 3 | Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.254 | +294 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.294 | +240 | Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.24 |
| 4 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.235 | +326 | Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.285 | +251 | Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.94 |
| 5 | Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.224 | +346 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.273 | +266 | Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) | 5.9 |
| 6 | Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.217 | +361 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.27 | +270 | Max Fried (NYY) | 5.89 |
| 7 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.214 | +367 | Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.255 | +292 | Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.59 |
| 8 | Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.214 | +367 | Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.239 | +318 | Mike Soroka (CHC) | 5.57 |
| 9 | Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.214 | +367 | Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.239 | +318 | Cade Povich (BAL) | 5.38 |
| 10 | Tyler O`Neill (BAL) | 0.211 | +374 | Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.237 | +322 | Eric Lauer (TOR) | 5.21 |
| 11 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.208 | +381 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.226 | +342 | Johan Oviedo (PIT) | 5.11 |
| 12 | Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.206 | +385 | Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.198 | +405 | Travis Adams (MIN) | 5.1 |
| 13 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.204 | +390 | Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.188 | +432 | Quinn Priester (MIL) | 5 |
| 14 | Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.203 | +393 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.187 | +435 | Casey Mize (DET) | 5 |
| 15 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.202 | +395 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.186 | +438 | Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 4.81 |
| 16 | Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.202 | +395 | Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.182 | +449 | Slade Cecconi (CLE) | 4.8 |
| 17 | Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.199 | +403 | Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.177 | +465 | Patrick Corbin (TEX) | 4.77 |
| 18 | Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.193 | +418 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.174 | +475 | Jason Alexander (HOU) | 4.72 |
| 19 | Hunter Goodman (COL) | 0.189 | +429 | Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.172 | +481 | Justin Verlander (SF) | 4.7 |
| 20 | Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.185 | +441 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.165 | +506 | JP Sears (SD) | 4.66 |
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB props for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 78-68-1 roll (+1602) on MLB picks.
Add Comment