There is a full slate of MLB props during the Saturday MLB schedule, as all 30 teams are in action. Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga pitched the first five innings of a 5-3 win at San Francisco last Sunday, completing a three-game sweep. He has another matchup with the Giants on Saturday, as he tries to extend his seven-game unbeaten streak. Senga is 3-0 with a 2.80 ERA during that stretch, and his over/under for strikeouts on Saturday is 6.5. He has a 6.30 ERA in two career starts against the Giants though, and he has not recorded seven strikeouts in five straight starts.
Senga going under 6.5 strikeouts is one of the MLB props that SportsLine’s model is targeting on Saturday, along with Cardinals outfielder Victor Scott II to steal a base (+350) and Tigers outfielder Riley Greene to homer (+475). When it comes to MLB betting, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 40 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. You can also check out the model’s MLB HR picks, MLB longshot picks and game picks for Dodgers vs. Rays.
Best Saturday MLB player prop picks:
Victor Scott, Cardinals, over 0.5 stolen bases (+350)
Scott has recorded a stolen base in two of his last four games, and he has a favorable matchup against Padres pitcher Randy Vasquez, who is not good at preventing stolen bases. The model sets Scott’s line at +244 to steal a base on Saturday night, providing plenty of value at +350.
Kodai Senga, Mets, under 6.5 strikeouts (-130)
Senga has an outstanding ERA this season, but his strikeout numbers are not as impressive as some of the other elite pitchers. He has gone under this line in five consecutive starts and eight of his last 10. Additionally, he has gone under in 16 of his last 20 starts, and the model projects him to finish with 5.7 strikeouts on Saturday afternoon.
Riley Greene, Tigers, over 0.5 home runs (+475)
Greene leads Detroit with 26 home runs this season, and he just homered against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. He is batting .274 and has five hits in his last three games, so he is seeing the ball well right now. Greene has nine homers since June 28, and the model has his projected line at +279 for his matchup against Philadelphia on Saturday. You can bet this prop at bet365, where you can get $150 in bonus bets with a $5 bet.
MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
For example, Nick Kurtz and Cal Raleigh are not surprisingly our top 2 projected HR hitters today with nearly identical projected HRs. The best price on the board for Raleigh is +275 at ESPN, while bet365 is offering +310 for Kurtz which makes him a much better value. We typically do like to find at least +100 units of money line value for Home Runs and Stolen Bases. For the Starting Pitcher’s strikeouts compare our line to the betting line. If we have 5.4 and the line is 5.5 it could be good value if the under is +100 or more. But if it’s -120 then not so much.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 8/2 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.317 | +215 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.318 | +214 | Tarik Skubal (DET) | 7.78 |
| 2 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.315 | +217 | Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.316 | +216 | Spencer Strider (ATL) | 7.27 |
| 3 | Riley Greene (DET) | 0.264 | +279 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.304 | +229 | Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.02 |
| 4 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.258 | +288 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.291 | +244 | Brandon Woodruff (MIL) | 6.97 |
| 5 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.255 | +292 | Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.287 | +248 | Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.96 |
| 6 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.243 | +312 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.282 | +255 | Blake Snell (LAD) | 6.38 |
| 7 | Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.243 | +312 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.278 | +260 | Matt Boyd (CHC) | 6 |
| 8 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.24 | +317 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.261 | +283 | Chase Burns (CIN) | 5.91 |
| 9 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.236 | +324 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.253 | +295 | Kodai Senga (NYM) | 5.71 |
| 10 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.235 | +326 | Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.249 | +302 | Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.48 |
| 11 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.234 | +327 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.236 | +324 | Merrill Kelly (TEX) | 5.43 |
| 12 | James Wood (WAS) | 0.219 | +357 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.227 | +341 | Luis Castillo (SEA) | 5.38 |
| 13 | Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | 0.218 | +359 | Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.226 | +342 | Noah Cameron (KC) | 5.34 |
| 14 | Tyler O`Neill (BAL) | 0.217 | +361 | Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.225 | +344 | Cam Schlittler (NYY) | 5.34 |
| 15 | Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.216 | +363 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.224 | +346 | Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.3 |
| 16 | Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.215 | +365 | Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.209 | +378 | J.T. Ginn (ATH) | 5.22 |
| 17 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.205 | +388 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.207 | +383 | Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.2 |
| 18 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.203 | +393 | Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.186 | +438 | Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.19 |
| 19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.202 | +395 | Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.183 | +446 | Max Scherzer (TOR) | 5.12 |
| 20 | Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.201 | +398 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.182 | +449 | Kai-Wei Teng (SF) | 4.95 |
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB props for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 72-64-1 roll (+1352) on MLB picks.
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