After a limited three-game slate on Thursday, there are 15 games on the Friday MLB schedule, bringing a full set of MLB props for bettors to choose from. Home runs, stolen bases and strikeouts are some of the most popular MLB players props on the board, and SportsLine’s model is high on Nick Kurtz to continue his tear at the beginning of August after hitting 11 home runs in July. Oneil Cruz (stolen base) and Carlos Rodon (strikeouts) are other MLB player prop picks the model is higher on.
When it comes to MLB betting, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 40 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. You can also check out the model’s MLB HR picks, MLB longshot picks and game picks for Reds vs. Brewers.
Best Friday MLB player prop picks:
Nick Kurtz, Athletics, over 0.5 home runs (+325)
The model projects Kurtz’s home-run line at +205, bringing immense value in this market for one of the game’s top young sluggers. Kurtz, a 22-year-old first baseman for the A’s, drew national headlines when he hit four home runs against the Astros on July 25. He had 11 home runs in total for the month as he finished July with a sizzling 1.433 OPS. Bet this line at bet365, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly on a $5 bet:
Oneil Cruz, Pirates, over 0.5 stolen bases (+320)
Another one of the game’s young explosive stars, Cruz is coming off a month where he swiped seven bags — including one span when he stole four in three games. He has struggled to get on base in the past week, which is why his odds are a big longer in this spot. Playing against the Rockies at Coors Field should give him that opportunity, however, and the model is setting his projected line at +151.
Carlos Rodon, Yankees, over 5.5 Ks (-145)
Rodon has cooled a bit since his strong start to the season, but he did record eight strikeouts in his last start. He gets a favorable matchup against the Marlins on Friday, and the model is projecting that he’ll fan 6.61 batters, helping the over clear with some room to spare, making it worth the -145 juice.
MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
For example, Tyler Soderstrom is our No. 9 projected HR hitter and we’d price him at +341 which is why getting +450 at DraftKings is a great value. You are looking for HR lines on the books that are significantly higher (100+ more money line units) than what our model’s price would be. Use this same method for Stolen Bases. For the Starting Pitcher’s strikeouts compare our line to the betting line. If we have 5.4 and the line is 5.5 it could be good value if the under is +100 or more. But if it’s -120 then not so much.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 8/1 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.328 | +205 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.398 | +151 | Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 6.61 |
| 2 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.313 | +219 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.325 | +208 | Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.59 |
| 3 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.289 | +246 | Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.314 | +218 | Hunter Brown (HOU) | 6.58 |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.275 | +264 | Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.288 | +247 | Jack Flaherty (DET) | 6.54 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.252 | +297 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.276 | +262 | Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.49 |
| 6 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.238 | +320 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.275 | +264 | Robbie Ray (SF) | 6.2 |
| 7 | Manny Machado (SD) | 0.232 | +331 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.267 | +275 | Nick Pivetta (SD) | 6.15 |
| 8 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.229 | +337 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.257 | +289 | Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 6.08 |
| 9 | Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | 0.227 | +341 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.249 | +302 | Jacob Lopez (ATH) | 5.57 |
| 10 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.226 | +342 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.22 | +355 | Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 5.56 |
| 11 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.226 | +342 | Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.213 | +369 | David Peterson (NYM) | 5.33 |
| 12 | Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.213 | +369 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.209 | +378 | Shane Baz (TB) | 5.29 |
| 13 | Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.213 | +369 | Cedric Mullins (NYM) | 0.203 | +393 | Brady Singer (CIN) | 5.17 |
| 14 | Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.213 | +369 | Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.2 | +400 | Jack Leiter (TEX) | 4.81 |
| 15 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.208 | +381 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.199 | +403 | Gavin Williams (CLE) | 4.76 |
| 16 | Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.207 | +383 | David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.198 | +405 | Anthony DeSclafani (ARI) | 4.75 |
| 17 | Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.206 | +385 | Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.197 | +408 | Shane Smith (CHW) | 4.69 |
| 18 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.199 | +403 | Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.185 | +441 | Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.65 |
| 19 | Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.199 | +403 | Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.184 | +443 | Cade Horton (CHC) | 4.58 |
| 20 | Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.198 | +405 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.184 | +443 | Tyler Anderson (LAA) | 4.54 |
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB props for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 70-62-1 roll (+1385) on MLB picks.
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